NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch

[4spotentialbuyer]

Yes, I have read all the posts on 4S Ranch, however we are planning on saying put for 10-15 years at least…and that is why we are waiting until Winter prices, see if there is a change, if prices do not go down 50K then wait until Spring…after that they would be finished building this community.

As there are people who bought Silver Crest in 900Ks, we thought we would still be better off if we could get Pienza at 680 to 720K.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Not trying to sound dense or anything, but reading the thread, as well as the other blogspot on 4S Ranch (http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/4S%20Ranch?max-results=20), it appears that pricing there is heading into the tank.

Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.

Or am I missing something here?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Not trying to sound dense or anything, but reading the thread, as well as the other blogspot on 4S Ranch (http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/search/label/4S%20Ranch?max-results=20), it appears that pricing there is heading into the tank.

Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.

Or am I missing something here?

[hipmatt]

No Allan, I don’t think you are missing anything. I think you pretty much have the right idea.

[hipmatt]

No Allan, I don’t think you are missing anything. I think you pretty much have the right idea.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

rent a small shack and stay home with your baby

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

rent a small shack and stay home with your baby

[Reality]

Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.

Or am I missing something here?

Yes. Typical scenario:

Wife wants a place to nest. She doesn’t care what a new house costs. Husband probably is the main breadwinner and may even understand that buying real estate in this market at this time is a poor idea. However, husband’s ba**s are in wife’s purse.

[Reality]

Given the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.

Or am I missing something here?

Yes. Typical scenario:

Wife wants a place to nest. She doesn’t care what a new house costs. Husband probably is the main breadwinner and may even understand that buying real estate in this market at this time is a poor idea. However, husband’s ba**s are in wife’s purse.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Geez, John, don’t hold back. Tell me what you’re really thinking!

You’re right about one thing, though: All the sound financial thinking in the world is trumped by maternal instinct.

It is hard to imagine any sort of justification for buying right now. I know the tenor of most of the posters here is decidedly bearish (myself among them), but the constant stream of news about the present (and upcoming) bloodletting is quite easy to interpret. Even the usual propaganda sources (NAR, Mortgage Bankers Assn, the UT) are dour, and no amount of white washing can conceal what appears to be a disaster in the making.

Again, might be just me, but I don’t think so. Watching Bernanke’s gyrations regarding interest rates and inflationary/pricing pressures, one is left with the real sense that the NASDAQ/dot.bomb bust is gonna be a piker compared to this one. This guy would literally prefer to cut off his own arm than raise interest rates again.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

Geez, John, don’t hold back. Tell me what you’re really thinking!

You’re right about one thing, though: All the sound financial thinking in the world is trumped by maternal instinct.

It is hard to imagine any sort of justification for buying right now. I know the tenor of most of the posters here is decidedly bearish (myself among them), but the constant stream of news about the present (and upcoming) bloodletting is quite easy to interpret. Even the usual propaganda sources (NAR, Mortgage Bankers Assn, the UT) are dour, and no amount of white washing can conceal what appears to be a disaster in the making.

Again, might be just me, but I don’t think so. Watching Bernanke’s gyrations regarding interest rates and inflationary/pricing pressures, one is left with the real sense that the NASDAQ/dot.bomb bust is gonna be a piker compared to this one. This guy would literally prefer to cut off his own arm than raise interest rates again.

[patientrenter]

John, pithy and accurate summary.

Allan, I’ll second that, about Bernanke and his right arm. (But is he left-handed?) He and others are constantly coming up with ways to explain why inflation higher than the goals is not important.

If we were in his shoes, what would we do? Maybe the same thing. After all, who wants to be held responsible for the inevitable deep recession that would follow from a clear break with the credit-fueled boom of the last 5 years? Maybe we kinda suspect that such a recession is inevitable, but maybe we’d prefer to explore for as long as possible the idea that the good times can last forever, or at least ease off gently. And if we do have to have a recession, then we’d probably prefer that someone else gets blamed.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

John, pithy and accurate summary.

Allan, I’ll second that, about Bernanke and his right arm. (But is he left-handed?) He and others are constantly coming up with ways to explain why inflation higher than the goals is not important.

If we were in his shoes, what would we do? Maybe the same thing. After all, who wants to be held responsible for the inevitable deep recession that would follow from a clear break with the credit-fueled boom of the last 5 years? Maybe we kinda suspect that such a recession is inevitable, but maybe we’d prefer to explore for as long as possible the idea that the good times can last forever, or at least ease off gently. And if we do have to have a recession, then we’d probably prefer that someone else gets blamed.

Patient renter in OC

[Allan from Fallbrook]

PatientRenter: Pithy and accurate, yourself. And, trenchant as well.

I do agree with your observations about both Bernanke and his (our?) predicament. Akin to Greenspan and his “irrational exuberance” mien, Big Ben knows the stakes and the downside of pursuing a rational, even-handed monetary and credit policy. You are correct also in the assertion that the American people have rarely, if ever, enjoyed the pain that accompanies the hard truth of economic realities.

So, let the party go on.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

PatientRenter: Pithy and accurate, yourself. And, trenchant as well.

I do agree with your observations about both Bernanke and his (our?) predicament. Akin to Greenspan and his “irrational exuberance” mien, Big Ben knows the stakes and the downside of pursuing a rational, even-handed monetary and credit policy. You are correct also in the assertion that the American people have rarely, if ever, enjoyed the pain that accompanies the hard truth of economic realities.

So, let the party go on.

[Author]

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