National Association of Realtors Calls for Bottom

[RatherOpinionated]

US Oct Pending Home Sales Climb Second Month In Row
By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON — A forward-looking indicator of home sales in the U.S. rose during October, the second climb in a row.

The National Association of Realtors’ index for pending sales of previously owned homes increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.6% to 87.2 in October from September’s 86.7, the industry group said Monday. The level of the gauge was 85.5 in August and 91.4 in July.

The NAR is forecasting sales and prices to drop in 2007 and rise weakly in 2008.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data, and that mortgage conditions have gotten better. “Some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels,” he said.

The NAR index, based on signed contracts for previously owned homes, was 18.4% below the level of 106.8 in October 2006.

The NAR’s pending home sales index was designed to try measuring which way the housing market is going in the future. It is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family homes and condominiums. A home sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction hasn’t closed. Pending sales typically close within one or two months of signing.

By region, the Northeast increased 16.0% in October from September; it fell 11.1% since October 2006. The Midwest fell 1.4% in October from September; it fell 11.7% since October 2006. The South decreased 7.8% in October from September; it dropped 25.3% since October 2006. The West increased 8.4% in October from September; it plunged 16.9% since October 2006.

In its monthly forecast on the industry, the NAR projected existing-home sales at 5.67 million this year and 5.70 million in 2008. That compares with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.9% to a median of $217,600 for all of 2007 and rise 0.3% in 2008 to $218,300, the NAR said.

A month ago, NAR projected 2007 sales at 5.67 million and 2008 sales at 5.69 million. It had forecast prices declining 1.7% to a median of $218,200 for all of 2007 and to hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What was the NAR prediction for 2007 as of Dec 2006 ?

Is this what they saw coming:

November Housing Data

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All real estate is local, right:

The CAR is predicting a 4% decline in CA median for 2008 and a 9% decline in sales.

In 2006 the CAR predicted a 2007 median price decline of 2% in California and a decrease in sales of 7%.

The title of this thread should be: NAR calls for a bottom, California still screwed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All real estate is local, right:

The CAR is predicting a 4% decline in CA median for 2008 and a 9% decline in sales.

In 2006 the CAR predicted a 2007 median price decline of 2% in California and a decrease in sales of 7%.

The title of this thread should be: NAR calls for a bottom, California still screwed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All real estate is local, right:

The CAR is predicting a 4% decline in CA median for 2008 and a 9% decline in sales.

In 2006 the CAR predicted a 2007 median price decline of 2% in California and a decrease in sales of 7%.

The title of this thread should be: NAR calls for a bottom, California still screwed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All real estate is local, right:

The CAR is predicting a 4% decline in CA median for 2008 and a 9% decline in sales.

In 2006 the CAR predicted a 2007 median price decline of 2% in California and a decrease in sales of 7%.

The title of this thread should be: NAR calls for a bottom, California still screwed.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All real estate is local, right:

The CAR is predicting a 4% decline in CA median for 2008 and a 9% decline in sales.

In 2006 the CAR predicted a 2007 median price decline of 2% in California and a decrease in sales of 7%.

The title of this thread should be: NAR calls for a bottom, California still screwed.

[JustLurking]

Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 – Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors…

Full press release.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/hef_dec06_existing_home_sales_in_2007.html

Deja vu…

[JustLurking]

Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 – Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors…

Full press release.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/hef_dec06_existing_home_sales_in_2007.html

Deja vu…

[JustLurking]

Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 – Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors…

Full press release.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/hef_dec06_existing_home_sales_in_2007.html

Deja vu…

[JustLurking]

Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 – Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors…

Full press release.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/hef_dec06_existing_home_sales_in_2007.html

Deja vu…

[JustLurking]

Existing-Home Sales In 2007 Expected To Recover From Cyclical Low

WASHINGTON, December 11, 2006 – Existing-home sales are expected to rise gradually in 2007 from current levels, with annual totals comparable to 2006, while new-home sales will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors…

Full press release.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/hef_dec06_existing_home_sales_in_2007.html

Deja vu…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What was the NAR prediction for 2007 as of Dec 2006 ?

Is this what they saw coming:

November Housing Data

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What was the NAR prediction for 2007 as of Dec 2006 ?

Is this what they saw coming:

November Housing Data

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What was the NAR prediction for 2007 as of Dec 2006 ?

Is this what they saw coming:

November Housing Data

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

What was the NAR prediction for 2007 as of Dec 2006 ?

Is this what they saw coming:

November Housing Data

[cr]

Yun is a bigger tool than Lereah. I don’t think anyone cares what these people “predict” anymore.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data…

The worst is yet to come Chief.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks, just Lurking. That was cool.

My favorite quote :

“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.

The funny thing is that they were pretty close on all the economic indicators EXCEPT for housing.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.

[Portlock]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’? I hope he means tighter lending standards signal a return to fundamentals, which will be ‘better’ for everyone in the future.

Can I suggest that jumbo loan application approvals will probably decrease, and there will be a mad rush for sellers to lower there asking prices below $417k? Maybe it isn’t that simple…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’?

I think they meant in the very short -term. From the initial panic in August-September to now. Remember, at the initial stages of the panic many programs stopped and getting a loan funded at all was very difficult. Jumbos were well over 1 point higher than conventional. Over time, various loan programs seem to have come back on line and the spread between Jumbos and conforming is closer to 0.5%.

So, basically they are saying that sales have improved slightly from a pretty horrendous rate. Note that even at this slightly higher sales rate that sales are less than they were at this time in 2001, in the months after 9/11.

[cr]

I think he means conditions in which bad mortgages were made have been corrected so logically we’ve seen all the bad mortgages default, and we’re through the worst of it.

Phew!

[4plexowner]

Mish says: “yet another fantasyland call from the NAR”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-fantasyland-call-from-nar.html

[4plexowner]

Mish says: “yet another fantasyland call from the NAR”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-fantasyland-call-from-nar.html

[4plexowner]

Mish says: “yet another fantasyland call from the NAR”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-fantasyland-call-from-nar.html

[4plexowner]

Mish says: “yet another fantasyland call from the NAR”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-fantasyland-call-from-nar.html

[4plexowner]

Mish says: “yet another fantasyland call from the NAR”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-fantasyland-call-from-nar.html

[cr]

I think he means conditions in which bad mortgages were made have been corrected so logically we’ve seen all the bad mortgages default, and we’re through the worst of it.

Phew!

[cr]

I think he means conditions in which bad mortgages were made have been corrected so logically we’ve seen all the bad mortgages default, and we’re through the worst of it.

Phew!

[cr]

I think he means conditions in which bad mortgages were made have been corrected so logically we’ve seen all the bad mortgages default, and we’re through the worst of it.

Phew!

[cr]

I think he means conditions in which bad mortgages were made have been corrected so logically we’ve seen all the bad mortgages default, and we’re through the worst of it.

Phew!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’?

I think they meant in the very short -term. From the initial panic in August-September to now. Remember, at the initial stages of the panic many programs stopped and getting a loan funded at all was very difficult. Jumbos were well over 1 point higher than conventional. Over time, various loan programs seem to have come back on line and the spread between Jumbos and conforming is closer to 0.5%.

So, basically they are saying that sales have improved slightly from a pretty horrendous rate. Note that even at this slightly higher sales rate that sales are less than they were at this time in 2001, in the months after 9/11.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’?

I think they meant in the very short -term. From the initial panic in August-September to now. Remember, at the initial stages of the panic many programs stopped and getting a loan funded at all was very difficult. Jumbos were well over 1 point higher than conventional. Over time, various loan programs seem to have come back on line and the spread between Jumbos and conforming is closer to 0.5%.

So, basically they are saying that sales have improved slightly from a pretty horrendous rate. Note that even at this slightly higher sales rate that sales are less than they were at this time in 2001, in the months after 9/11.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’?

I think they meant in the very short -term. From the initial panic in August-September to now. Remember, at the initial stages of the panic many programs stopped and getting a loan funded at all was very difficult. Jumbos were well over 1 point higher than conventional. Over time, various loan programs seem to have come back on line and the spread between Jumbos and conforming is closer to 0.5%.

So, basically they are saying that sales have improved slightly from a pretty horrendous rate. Note that even at this slightly higher sales rate that sales are less than they were at this time in 2001, in the months after 9/11.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’?

I think they meant in the very short -term. From the initial panic in August-September to now. Remember, at the initial stages of the panic many programs stopped and getting a loan funded at all was very difficult. Jumbos were well over 1 point higher than conventional. Over time, various loan programs seem to have come back on line and the spread between Jumbos and conforming is closer to 0.5%.

So, basically they are saying that sales have improved slightly from a pretty horrendous rate. Note that even at this slightly higher sales rate that sales are less than they were at this time in 2001, in the months after 9/11.

[Portlock]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’? I hope he means tighter lending standards signal a return to fundamentals, which will be ‘better’ for everyone in the future.

Can I suggest that jumbo loan application approvals will probably decrease, and there will be a mad rush for sellers to lower there asking prices below $417k? Maybe it isn’t that simple…

[Portlock]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’? I hope he means tighter lending standards signal a return to fundamentals, which will be ‘better’ for everyone in the future.

Can I suggest that jumbo loan application approvals will probably decrease, and there will be a mad rush for sellers to lower there asking prices below $417k? Maybe it isn’t that simple…

[Portlock]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’? I hope he means tighter lending standards signal a return to fundamentals, which will be ‘better’ for everyone in the future.

Can I suggest that jumbo loan application approvals will probably decrease, and there will be a mad rush for sellers to lower there asking prices below $417k? Maybe it isn’t that simple…

[Portlock]

How the hell have mortgage conditions gotten ‘better’? I hope he means tighter lending standards signal a return to fundamentals, which will be ‘better’ for everyone in the future.

Can I suggest that jumbo loan application approvals will probably decrease, and there will be a mad rush for sellers to lower there asking prices below $417k? Maybe it isn’t that simple…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks, just Lurking. That was cool.

My favorite quote :

“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.

The funny thing is that they were pretty close on all the economic indicators EXCEPT for housing.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks, just Lurking. That was cool.

My favorite quote :

“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.

The funny thing is that they were pretty close on all the economic indicators EXCEPT for housing.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks, just Lurking. That was cool.

My favorite quote :

“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.

The funny thing is that they were pretty close on all the economic indicators EXCEPT for housing.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Thanks, just Lurking. That was cool.

My favorite quote :

“By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter,” Lereah said.

The funny thing is that they were pretty close on all the economic indicators EXCEPT for housing.

The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2007, after averaging an estimated 4.6 percent this year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast to be 3.4 percent for 2006 and 2.3 percent in 2007, while growth in the U.S. gross domestic product is likely to be 3.3 percent for all of this year and 2.3 percent in 2007. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 2.6 percent for 2006 and 3.5 percent next year.

[cr]

Yun is a bigger tool than Lereah. I don’t think anyone cares what these people “predict” anymore.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data…

The worst is yet to come Chief.

[cr]

Yun is a bigger tool than Lereah. I don’t think anyone cares what these people “predict” anymore.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data…

The worst is yet to come Chief.

[cr]

Yun is a bigger tool than Lereah. I don’t think anyone cares what these people “predict” anymore.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data…

The worst is yet to come Chief.

[cr]

Yun is a bigger tool than Lereah. I don’t think anyone cares what these people “predict” anymore.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said the worst part of the credit crunch has been accounted for in the data…

The worst is yet to come Chief.

[Author]

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