My Idea of Bottom

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My idea of an ideal Bottom is J.Lo’s or Beyonce’s behind.

As for housing, I would tend to agree with Waiting Hawk here. It has to appear to get worse and some players must capitulate (bank failures). Also, buying within a few years after the bottom does probably will not matter that much.

[robson]

Good summary. Regarding #1, it will be very interesting to see what factors ultimately “force” the gov to do this. Needless to say, if it is presumed that this must happen at some point, then the conditions that would warrant this (national economy, home prices, stock market levels) would be a bit worse than they are today.

Regarding #3, are you simply tracking NODs as a signal of future foreclosures, or employing some other method? At what level of foreclosures would you consider a bottom?

[robson]

Good summary. Regarding #1, it will be very interesting to see what factors ultimately “force” the gov to do this. Needless to say, if it is presumed that this must happen at some point, then the conditions that would warrant this (national economy, home prices, stock market levels) would be a bit worse than they are today.

Regarding #3, are you simply tracking NODs as a signal of future foreclosures, or employing some other method? At what level of foreclosures would you consider a bottom?

[robson]

Good summary. Regarding #1, it will be very interesting to see what factors ultimately “force” the gov to do this. Needless to say, if it is presumed that this must happen at some point, then the conditions that would warrant this (national economy, home prices, stock market levels) would be a bit worse than they are today.

Regarding #3, are you simply tracking NODs as a signal of future foreclosures, or employing some other method? At what level of foreclosures would you consider a bottom?

[robson]

Good summary. Regarding #1, it will be very interesting to see what factors ultimately “force” the gov to do this. Needless to say, if it is presumed that this must happen at some point, then the conditions that would warrant this (national economy, home prices, stock market levels) would be a bit worse than they are today.

Regarding #3, are you simply tracking NODs as a signal of future foreclosures, or employing some other method? At what level of foreclosures would you consider a bottom?

[robson]

Good summary. Regarding #1, it will be very interesting to see what factors ultimately “force” the gov to do this. Needless to say, if it is presumed that this must happen at some point, then the conditions that would warrant this (national economy, home prices, stock market levels) would be a bit worse than they are today.

Regarding #3, are you simply tracking NODs as a signal of future foreclosures, or employing some other method? At what level of foreclosures would you consider a bottom?

[cr]

Re: #1 – By taking them off their books the government would have to pay book value for them or the banks would probably be better off selling them. Of course the answer to that is print more money, but then what? The government will sell them all at a loss? Through who, FMAE, FMAC, OFHEO, FHA? That will only increase inflation and force more downward pressure on prices.

Maybe they will hoard them until the next bubble.

[cr]

Re: #1 – By taking them off their books the government would have to pay book value for them or the banks would probably be better off selling them. Of course the answer to that is print more money, but then what? The government will sell them all at a loss? Through who, FMAE, FMAC, OFHEO, FHA? That will only increase inflation and force more downward pressure on prices.

Maybe they will hoard them until the next bubble.

[cr]

Re: #1 – By taking them off their books the government would have to pay book value for them or the banks would probably be better off selling them. Of course the answer to that is print more money, but then what? The government will sell them all at a loss? Through who, FMAE, FMAC, OFHEO, FHA? That will only increase inflation and force more downward pressure on prices.

Maybe they will hoard them until the next bubble.

[cr]

Re: #1 – By taking them off their books the government would have to pay book value for them or the banks would probably be better off selling them. Of course the answer to that is print more money, but then what? The government will sell them all at a loss? Through who, FMAE, FMAC, OFHEO, FHA? That will only increase inflation and force more downward pressure on prices.

Maybe they will hoard them until the next bubble.

[cr]

Re: #1 – By taking them off their books the government would have to pay book value for them or the banks would probably be better off selling them. Of course the answer to that is print more money, but then what? The government will sell them all at a loss? Through who, FMAE, FMAC, OFHEO, FHA? That will only increase inflation and force more downward pressure on prices.

Maybe they will hoard them until the next bubble.

[robson]

But hoarding would mean millions of vacant homes across the country which would be vandalized over the years and by the time the next bubble hit they wouldn’t even be livable. I don’t understand why banks don’t just sack up and start renting to people in the traditional way. At this point a “rent unit” at a bank would be much more valuable than a “mortgage unit.” Seriously though, is there a law against this or why has it not happened?

[robson]

But hoarding would mean millions of vacant homes across the country which would be vandalized over the years and by the time the next bubble hit they wouldn’t even be livable. I don’t understand why banks don’t just sack up and start renting to people in the traditional way. At this point a “rent unit” at a bank would be much more valuable than a “mortgage unit.” Seriously though, is there a law against this or why has it not happened?

[robson]

But hoarding would mean millions of vacant homes across the country which would be vandalized over the years and by the time the next bubble hit they wouldn’t even be livable. I don’t understand why banks don’t just sack up and start renting to people in the traditional way. At this point a “rent unit” at a bank would be much more valuable than a “mortgage unit.” Seriously though, is there a law against this or why has it not happened?

[robson]

But hoarding would mean millions of vacant homes across the country which would be vandalized over the years and by the time the next bubble hit they wouldn’t even be livable. I don’t understand why banks don’t just sack up and start renting to people in the traditional way. At this point a “rent unit” at a bank would be much more valuable than a “mortgage unit.” Seriously though, is there a law against this or why has it not happened?

[Author]

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