- This topic has 200 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 5 months ago by
scaredyclassic.
-
AuthorPosts
-
November 25, 2008 at 9:53 PM #309478November 25, 2008 at 10:53 PM #309024
SD Realtor
ParticipantWhat is unprecendented right now is the yield on the 10 year treasury. People must be really thinking that this is gonna be a whopper of a recession to push the bond market like this.
I would be curious to hear what some of the bond market experts think of this run. I mean it is crazy.
Equalizer I am not so sure that the rally on the bond market is a result of the FED actions. Even when the fed was at its loosest back in the 2002 recession the 10 year treasury never came down to these levels.
Not sure how much this will push down mortgage rates but it will. That will not hurt the housing market.
November 25, 2008 at 10:53 PM #309390ParticipantWhat is unprecendented right now is the yield on the 10 year treasury. People must be really thinking that this is gonna be a whopper of a recession to push the bond market like this.
I would be curious to hear what some of the bond market experts think of this run. I mean it is crazy.
Equalizer I am not so sure that the rally on the bond market is a result of the FED actions. Even when the fed was at its loosest back in the 2002 recession the 10 year treasury never came down to these levels.
Not sure how much this will push down mortgage rates but it will. That will not hurt the housing market.
November 25, 2008 at 10:53 PM #309411ParticipantWhat is unprecendented right now is the yield on the 10 year treasury. People must be really thinking that this is gonna be a whopper of a recession to push the bond market like this.
I would be curious to hear what some of the bond market experts think of this run. I mean it is crazy.
Equalizer I am not so sure that the rally on the bond market is a result of the FED actions. Even when the fed was at its loosest back in the 2002 recession the 10 year treasury never came down to these levels.
Not sure how much this will push down mortgage rates but it will. That will not hurt the housing market.
November 25, 2008 at 10:53 PM #309432ParticipantWhat is unprecendented right now is the yield on the 10 year treasury. People must be really thinking that this is gonna be a whopper of a recession to push the bond market like this.
I would be curious to hear what some of the bond market experts think of this run. I mean it is crazy.
Equalizer I am not so sure that the rally on the bond market is a result of the FED actions. Even when the fed was at its loosest back in the 2002 recession the 10 year treasury never came down to these levels.
Not sure how much this will push down mortgage rates but it will. That will not hurt the housing market.
November 25, 2008 at 10:53 PM #309493ParticipantWhat is unprecendented right now is the yield on the 10 year treasury. People must be really thinking that this is gonna be a whopper of a recession to push the bond market like this.
I would be curious to hear what some of the bond market experts think of this run. I mean it is crazy.
Equalizer I am not so sure that the rally on the bond market is a result of the FED actions. Even when the fed was at its loosest back in the 2002 recession the 10 year treasury never came down to these levels.
Not sure how much this will push down mortgage rates but it will. That will not hurt the housing market.
November 25, 2008 at 11:24 PM #309049CA renter
ParticipantI’m not a bond expert, but like to watch the bond market for clues…
IMHO, the bond market is pricing in one hell of a recession/depression and a sustained zero-interest-rate policy, perhaps over many years. I do not think it has anything to do with the new $800B bailout.
While foreclosures do put more inventory on the market, they do not affect the borrowing ability of new buyers. We are heading into the next phase of the economic decline…the worst job market seen in decades (just wait, we’re getting there). It’s not foreclosures that cause housing declines…it’s housing declines which cause foreclosures. During an bull market, people could sell their homes whenever they needed/wanted to, and they could at least break even. When the market is declining, those who bought on the up-swing cannot sell for what they owe (especially with low/no down payments), thus the foreclosures.
The greatest influence on housing prices is willingness and ability to borrow large sums of money. It is less about natural “supply and demand” because the demand is most affected by the credit markets. Lots of people might **want** to buy a house, but that doesn’t really affect demand if they cannot qualify/afford to buy a house. No jobs, no stated-income neg-am loans, and the market is toast. Holding off the foreclosures will just stretch out the recession/depression. It will not prop up housing prices over the long term.
Just MHO.
November 25, 2008 at 11:24 PM #309415ParticipantI’m not a bond expert, but like to watch the bond market for clues…
IMHO, the bond market is pricing in one hell of a recession/depression and a sustained zero-interest-rate policy, perhaps over many years. I do not think it has anything to do with the new $800B bailout.
While foreclosures do put more inventory on the market, they do not affect the borrowing ability of new buyers. We are heading into the next phase of the economic decline…the worst job market seen in decades (just wait, we’re getting there). It’s not foreclosures that cause housing declines…it’s housing declines which cause foreclosures. During an bull market, people could sell their homes whenever they needed/wanted to, and they could at least break even. When the market is declining, those who bought on the up-swing cannot sell for what they owe (especially with low/no down payments), thus the foreclosures.
The greatest influence on housing prices is willingness and ability to borrow large sums of money. It is less about natural “supply and demand” because the demand is most affected by the credit markets. Lots of people might **want** to buy a house, but that doesn’t really affect demand if they cannot qualify/afford to buy a house. No jobs, no stated-income neg-am loans, and the market is toast. Holding off the foreclosures will just stretch out the recession/depression. It will not prop up housing prices over the long term.
Just MHO.
November 25, 2008 at 11:24 PM #309436ParticipantI’m not a bond expert, but like to watch the bond market for clues…
IMHO, the bond market is pricing in one hell of a recession/depression and a sustained zero-interest-rate policy, perhaps over many years. I do not think it has anything to do with the new $800B bailout.
While foreclosures do put more inventory on the market, they do not affect the borrowing ability of new buyers. We are heading into the next phase of the economic decline…the worst job market seen in decades (just wait, we’re getting there). It’s not foreclosures that cause housing declines…it’s housing declines which cause foreclosures. During an bull market, people could sell their homes whenever they needed/wanted to, and they could at least break even. When the market is declining, those who bought on the up-swing cannot sell for what they owe (especially with low/no down payments), thus the foreclosures.
The greatest influence on housing prices is willingness and ability to borrow large sums of money. It is less about natural “supply and demand” because the demand is most affected by the credit markets. Lots of people might **want** to buy a house, but that doesn’t really affect demand if they cannot qualify/afford to buy a house. No jobs, no stated-income neg-am loans, and the market is toast. Holding off the foreclosures will just stretch out the recession/depression. It will not prop up housing prices over the long term.
Just MHO.
November 25, 2008 at 11:24 PM #309457ParticipantI’m not a bond expert, but like to watch the bond market for clues…
IMHO, the bond market is pricing in one hell of a recession/depression and a sustained zero-interest-rate policy, perhaps over many years. I do not think it has anything to do with the new $800B bailout.
While foreclosures do put more inventory on the market, they do not affect the borrowing ability of new buyers. We are heading into the next phase of the economic decline…the worst job market seen in decades (just wait, we’re getting there). It’s not foreclosures that cause housing declines…it’s housing declines which cause foreclosures. During an bull market, people could sell their homes whenever they needed/wanted to, and they could at least break even. When the market is declining, those who bought on the up-swing cannot sell for what they owe (especially with low/no down payments), thus the foreclosures.
The greatest influence on housing prices is willingness and ability to borrow large sums of money. It is less about natural “supply and demand” because the demand is most affected by the credit markets. Lots of people might **want** to buy a house, but that doesn’t really affect demand if they cannot qualify/afford to buy a house. No jobs, no stated-income neg-am loans, and the market is toast. Holding off the foreclosures will just stretch out the recession/depression. It will not prop up housing prices over the long term.
Just MHO.
November 25, 2008 at 11:24 PM #309518ParticipantI’m not a bond expert, but like to watch the bond market for clues…
IMHO, the bond market is pricing in one hell of a recession/depression and a sustained zero-interest-rate policy, perhaps over many years. I do not think it has anything to do with the new $800B bailout.
While foreclosures do put more inventory on the market, they do not affect the borrowing ability of new buyers. We are heading into the next phase of the economic decline…the worst job market seen in decades (just wait, we’re getting there). It’s not foreclosures that cause housing declines…it’s housing declines which cause foreclosures. During an bull market, people could sell their homes whenever they needed/wanted to, and they could at least break even. When the market is declining, those who bought on the up-swing cannot sell for what they owe (especially with low/no down payments), thus the foreclosures.
The greatest influence on housing prices is willingness and ability to borrow large sums of money. It is less about natural “supply and demand” because the demand is most affected by the credit markets. Lots of people might **want** to buy a house, but that doesn’t really affect demand if they cannot qualify/afford to buy a house. No jobs, no stated-income neg-am loans, and the market is toast. Holding off the foreclosures will just stretch out the recession/depression. It will not prop up housing prices over the long term.
Just MHO.
November 25, 2008 at 11:34 PM #309054ParticipantCAR I pretty much agree with your points. I think the measures by the government will indeed lead to a long flat declining market. I absolutely agree that the economy will be the driver for the next leg down. It is unfortunate but true that many families will indeed keep thier homes because of the poor choices our present AND future leaders have an will make. Just like you said these measures will not help the economy and prolong the agony.
It sucks to be a prudent saver.
November 25, 2008 at 11:34 PM #309420ParticipantCAR I pretty much agree with your points. I think the measures by the government will indeed lead to a long flat declining market. I absolutely agree that the economy will be the driver for the next leg down. It is unfortunate but true that many families will indeed keep thier homes because of the poor choices our present AND future leaders have an will make. Just like you said these measures will not help the economy and prolong the agony.
It sucks to be a prudent saver.
November 25, 2008 at 11:34 PM #309441ParticipantCAR I pretty much agree with your points. I think the measures by the government will indeed lead to a long flat declining market. I absolutely agree that the economy will be the driver for the next leg down. It is unfortunate but true that many families will indeed keep thier homes because of the poor choices our present AND future leaders have an will make. Just like you said these measures will not help the economy and prolong the agony.
It sucks to be a prudent saver.
November 25, 2008 at 11:34 PM #309462ParticipantCAR I pretty much agree with your points. I think the measures by the government will indeed lead to a long flat declining market. I absolutely agree that the economy will be the driver for the next leg down. It is unfortunate but true that many families will indeed keep thier homes because of the poor choices our present AND future leaders have an will make. Just like you said these measures will not help the economy and prolong the agony.
It sucks to be a prudent saver.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.