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UCGal.
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May 26, 2009 at 12:14 PM #15758May 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM #405742
carlsbadworker
ParticipantI find people on this board routinely under-estimate the power of delaying the inventory hitting the market. So what if it fails to stop defaults? The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now. If they can spread the “shadow inventory” into many many years, the effect of this inventory on the housing price (which we care most) is going to be rather negligible.
In the end, procrastination is like masturbation. It looks like you’re just screwing yourself, but it also has many hidden benefits that people just don’t advertise about it.May 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM #406288carlsbadworker
ParticipantI find people on this board routinely under-estimate the power of delaying the inventory hitting the market. So what if it fails to stop defaults? The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now. If they can spread the “shadow inventory” into many many years, the effect of this inventory on the housing price (which we care most) is going to be rather negligible.
In the end, procrastination is like masturbation. It looks like you’re just screwing yourself, but it also has many hidden benefits that people just don’t advertise about it.May 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM #406227carlsbadworker
ParticipantI find people on this board routinely under-estimate the power of delaying the inventory hitting the market. So what if it fails to stop defaults? The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now. If they can spread the “shadow inventory” into many many years, the effect of this inventory on the housing price (which we care most) is going to be rather negligible.
In the end, procrastination is like masturbation. It looks like you’re just screwing yourself, but it also has many hidden benefits that people just don’t advertise about it.May 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM #405987carlsbadworker
ParticipantI find people on this board routinely under-estimate the power of delaying the inventory hitting the market. So what if it fails to stop defaults? The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now. If they can spread the “shadow inventory” into many many years, the effect of this inventory on the housing price (which we care most) is going to be rather negligible.
In the end, procrastination is like masturbation. It looks like you’re just screwing yourself, but it also has many hidden benefits that people just don’t advertise about it.May 26, 2009 at 12:46 PM #406436carlsbadworker
ParticipantI find people on this board routinely under-estimate the power of delaying the inventory hitting the market. So what if it fails to stop defaults? The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now. If they can spread the “shadow inventory” into many many years, the effect of this inventory on the housing price (which we care most) is going to be rather negligible.
In the end, procrastination is like masturbation. It looks like you’re just screwing yourself, but it also has many hidden benefits that people just don’t advertise about it.May 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM #405752Arraya
ParticipantThe normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem.
May 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM #406237Arraya
ParticipantThe normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem.
May 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM #406299Arraya
ParticipantThe normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem.
May 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM #405997Arraya
ParticipantThe normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem.
May 26, 2009 at 12:54 PM #406446Arraya
ParticipantThe normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem.
May 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM #406257davelj
Participant[quote=Arraya]The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem. [/quote]
GDP = C + I + G + (X-Imp)
The percentage change in GDP will reflect the changes in the above inputs. The percentage change in GDP over the long term will ALSO equal Population Growth + Productivity Growth. This relationship is axiomatic.So, you see, GDP growth is partly a function of population growth, not vice versa. I think (re: hope) what you’re trying to say is that we need growth in productivity and innovation to create jobs that will take up the current slack in the job market. Otherwise, you’re confused on how the pieces fit together.
May 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM #406319davelj
Participant[quote=Arraya]The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem. [/quote]
GDP = C + I + G + (X-Imp)
The percentage change in GDP will reflect the changes in the above inputs. The percentage change in GDP over the long term will ALSO equal Population Growth + Productivity Growth. This relationship is axiomatic.So, you see, GDP growth is partly a function of population growth, not vice versa. I think (re: hope) what you’re trying to say is that we need growth in productivity and innovation to create jobs that will take up the current slack in the job market. Otherwise, you’re confused on how the pieces fit together.
May 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM #406466davelj
Participant[quote=Arraya]The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem. [/quote]
GDP = C + I + G + (X-Imp)
The percentage change in GDP will reflect the changes in the above inputs. The percentage change in GDP over the long term will ALSO equal Population Growth + Productivity Growth. This relationship is axiomatic.So, you see, GDP growth is partly a function of population growth, not vice versa. I think (re: hope) what you’re trying to say is that we need growth in productivity and innovation to create jobs that will take up the current slack in the job market. Otherwise, you’re confused on how the pieces fit together.
May 26, 2009 at 1:37 PM #406017davelj
Participant[quote=Arraya]The normal population growth probably requires 1.2-1.3M new houses every year, and the builders are only building 500K per year right now.
You need to find some economic growth for you population growth or it does not mean anything except additional burden on a society. That is the crux of the problem. [/quote]
GDP = C + I + G + (X-Imp)
The percentage change in GDP will reflect the changes in the above inputs. The percentage change in GDP over the long term will ALSO equal Population Growth + Productivity Growth. This relationship is axiomatic.So, you see, GDP growth is partly a function of population growth, not vice versa. I think (re: hope) what you’re trying to say is that we need growth in productivity and innovation to create jobs that will take up the current slack in the job market. Otherwise, you’re confused on how the pieces fit together.
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