Monthly sales Statistics January 07

[santeeman]

Here’s the latest info on resales for January ’07

Look like listings are trending down……..

http://sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/01-2006/January-2007.pdf

[no_such_reality]

Average Sales Price
Jan $611,273
Feb $624,744
Mar $610,474
Apr $628,778
May $626,598
Jun $637,166
July $624,111
Aug $614,767
Sept $617,623
Oct $591,709
Nov $593,965
Dec $605,538
Jan ’07 $586,229

[an]

Yep, listing are trending down, but so is price.

[LostCat]

That’s great…. Can’t wait to see what this summer brings. Summer will be the real truth..

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

That’s great…. Can’t wait to see what this summer brings. Summer will be the real truth..

My guess is that spring/summer will be too weak for bulls and not weak enough for bears, due to seasonal factors. I think that Fall/Winter is where the shoe hits the poo.

[zk]

Summer will be the real truth..

I don’t know if I’d go that far. Even if sales and prices pick up this summer, that doesn’t mean that this winter was the bottom. The last graph on this page: http://piggington.com/january_housing_data
should be evidence that the bottom can be tough to call, and also that it’s highly doubtful that the bottom would occur so soon. If this summer does pick up, I’d say it’s far more likely that summer of ’07 will end up just a bounce similar to ’91 rather than the bottom (’96).

[PerryChase]

zk, you’re right on. That’s how I remember the last downturn. I was young and stupid back then, but now I have a Masters in Life.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Anyone else notice a sudden burst of listings this week ?
I the areas I track, the traditional post-Super Bowl listing activity has heated up. I believe that this will work its way into inventory numbers very soon.

[no_such_reality]

Santeeman, do you have the 2005 numbers, I can’t get search to turn up a previous posting. I’d like to see the numbers from Jan 2005 to now.

Everybody is babbling about the strength in January sales. January was weaker than last January 2006. Maybe they are thinking December, but I doubt that too.

Basically, the Sandicor numbers show both sales slowing YOY and prices dropping YOY, this is from last January when the good ship Market Titanic had already turned the corner.

All clear, no icebergs ahead!

[no_such_reality]

Well, I went and pulled old numbers from SD Online to look at December 2004, 2005 and 2006.

That strength in December, didn’t exist.

Dec 2006 was 14% slower than Dec 2005.

Make it worse, Dec 2005 was 21% slower than Dec 2004.

Dec 2006 was a full 32% slower than Dec 2004.

It just looked strong compared to the normally slow November.

Here’s the resale home numbers:
Dec Units
2006 2329
2005 2716
2004 3446
Ratio Sales
2006/2005 -0.142488954
2005/2004 -0.211839814
2006/2004 -0.324143935

[PerryChase]

Here’s a good link to San Diego sales history.

http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/pastyears.php

[no_such_reality]

PC, that’s the one I’ve used. It’s a bit frustrating because they keep changing the format of the summary. The drill down is the same so you can reconstruct your numbers.

Anybody else find it oddly coincidental that they stopped reporting sales volume in the summary shortly after YOY sales volume turned consistently negative?

[little lady]

“Everybody is babbling about the strength in January sales. January was weaker than last January 2006. Maybe they are thinking December, but I doubt that too.”

I see that the prices are declining and the listings, I think the number of quality homes at “FOR REAL”(IMHO) market prices are nominal. The other stuff on the market(IMHO) is complete crap at “head in the cloud” prices.

This lady by me had her house up for a year, took it off last fall, (it’s a piece of shit)did what SHE thought was fix it up, and now listed that heep at a higher price.

My house will sell because no one will beat my price and my neighborhood (round here) is sought after.

[no_such_reality]

Good homes sell in all markets little lady. If you’re priced right, it’ll sell.

Everybody is chattering about the strength and rebound of the market.

Well, bullpucky, Data Quick confirm my suspicions today.

Slowest January since 1998

Since 1996/1997 was bottom last cycle, I’d say that makes January mighty slow.

[an]

Good homes sell in all markets little lady.If you’re priced right, it’ll sell.

I’d go as far as saying all homes sell in all markets if the price is right. There’s a price and a buyer for every home.

[Author]

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