Mira Mesa Monitor

[gzz]

The Newport Beach and Irvine of SD are La Jolla/Del Mar and Carmel Valley/UTC.

It’s very hard to gain the cluster of amenities the very rich demand, I don’t see how Encinitas and Carlsbad will get them. They have too much tract housing and too little commercial areas.

More likely IMO is that as Encinitas and Carlsbad move upscale, they become more like Dana Point and Solana Beach.

For Mira Mesa, its gentrification is generated by tech workers so I think the best comparisons would be formerly middle class areas of SV like Cupertino and Redwood City.

[sdrealtor]

Just back from weekend in Newport Beach. It’s a beach community like Encinitas and Carlsbad just wealthier. I itnever said would be as wealthy just that it would be our version of it which it is becoming. The NCC has more amenities including golf courses, restaurants, shopping and entertainment than any other part of SD. It has two of the Premier resorts in SD and many more very nice ones. Do you spend much time here? Do you spend much time in Newport Beach? I spend a lot of time there.

La Jolla is more comparable to Laguna than Newport Beach. Old money vs new money. Artsy vs Flashy. Tucked away with challenging access to transportation corridors.

Irvine is at least 15 minutes from the beach. Most of the housing is older. It’s in the middle of an employment center. It’s nothing like Carmel Valley.

[an]

I’d take either Irvine or Cupertino or even Sunnyvale as where MM is heading to.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Ran numbers a day late due to holiday brain fog

New listings 9 –

New Pendings of 9 –

Thats 0 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 23 with median price of $850K.

Inventory continuing to build. Prices stabilizing and dont seem to be rising. Could soften a little IMO but not a lot. Market seems to be returning to normal albeit with higher prices

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Back on schedule

New listings 10 –

New Pendings of 8 –

Thats +2 change

Closed sales at 11

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 25 with median price of $855K.

Slow inventory build continues. Market still very strong but more orderly. Very stable here

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Strong week for MM, maybe strongest all year.

New listings 7 – slight decrease over last few weeks

New Pendings of 18 – easily biggest week of the year. Part is there was more inventory but there was more inventory the last 3 weeks. Bit of a reversal here

Thats -11 change

Closed sales at 6. Sign of previous low inventoyr as things take 30-60 days to close

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 16 with median price of $850K.

Inventory had been building over last 5 weeks then boom. Things are cooking in MM again.

[ybitz]

you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that’ll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.

[flyer]

Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

[an]

[quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]
Don’t tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can’t even get on the list.

Lennar is going with “bidding war” sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won’t surprise me if they’ll follow Lennar’s lead and do bidding war for the following phases.

[an]

[quote=ybitz]you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that’ll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.[/quote]
Mira Mesa is changing. 3Roots is the first of the many changes happening over the next 10-20 years. 3Roots will be fully built out over the next 5 years. Then Stone Creek, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/stone-creek/, immediately east of 3Roots will start. These 2 developments will change feel of MM. Then if you think even longer term, the city want to rezone MM to be a lot more dense, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city-proposes-high-density-housing-in-mira-mesa/, so 30 years from now, I’m betting that MM will be a much different place.

As you bring in more people who are buying $1-1.5m houses, school’s test scores will change as well.

[sdrealtor]

To see what will happen in MM one only need look north at San Marcos. Twenty Five years ago its was widely disparaged around North County locals. Then San Elijo Hills and some other smaller communities were built and the sea tide changed. Today San Marcos home prices for comparable homes arent all that different than Carlsbads.

It will take time as an mentioned but with a central location, relatively affordable homes, nice all usable lots common and proximity to UCSD, Medical centers and tech/life science job centers I only see one way for this to end.

Right now most homes are selling over $800k. At those prices the people moving in are not the same as the people moving out or most of the current residents.

There are about 25k housing units in MM. 60% of those are owner occupied so lets call that 15K.

This year about 800 homes will change ownership with close to 500 of those single family homes. Thats 3% turnover. Most of those were built in 70’s and 80’s so original owners hanging on have been there 40 to 50 years and will be aging out. Expect the pace of the turnover to accelerate. Throw in a few thousand new homes which will be magnets for even wealthier residents.

In 2030 years years, I beleive around 50% of the homes in MM will have different owners than they did in 2020. Incomes and education levels are rapidly rising along with that.

If I was a young couple starting out and thinking about starting a family MM would most certainly be on my radar

[sdrealtor]

[quote=an][quote=flyer]Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don’t know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.[/quote]
Don’t tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can’t even get on the list.

Lennar is going with “bidding war” sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won’t surprise me if they’ll follow Lennar’s lead and do bidding war for the following phases.[/quote]

So the irony is a significant portion of the folks who buy in the top coastal school districts send their kids to private schools anyway. If i had to guess neither flyer nor his kids attended public schools

[flyer]

Good to hear all the feedback–really didn’t know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.

[an]

[quote=flyer]Good to hear all the feedback–really didn’t know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.[/quote]
1st world problem

[flyer]

So true.

[Author]

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