- This topic has 411 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 2 weeks, 2 days ago by
sdrealtor.
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May 18, 2021 at 1:59 PM #821603May 18, 2021 at 10:43 PM #821614
an
ParticipantAnd just like that, the median just increased to $875k a few hours after you posted this!
May 19, 2021 at 7:52 AM #821621sdrealtor
ParticipantData set is so small it bounces around. Big change is in January it was reliably in mid 700s. Now it’s mid 800s
May 25, 2021 at 12:57 PM #821807ParticipantUpdate time. Inventory jumped and is highest this year as it should be but still very notable
New listings 10 – one of highest counts this year as it should be
New Pendings of 5 – first sign of a slow down with more inventory available
Thats +5 change
Closed sales at 9
Price reductions at 1.
Current inventory at 17 with median price of $860K. Up until the beginning of May median was under 800K. Last 3 weeks its been in the mid 800’s. Prices now start in mid 700’s which was where the median was when the year started. We need a breather here. Could be the first signs of market saying enough is enough with price jumps here. Something to follow.
Will run NCC after I get back from appointment but not expecting to see this kind of relief there where it rages on. Will know soon enough
June 1, 2021 at 1:07 PM #821940ParticipantUpdate time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable
New listings 10 – one of highest counts this year as it should be
New Pendings of 15 – lots of pendings with more inventory to choose form. Highest figure this year. Peak demand time
Thats -5 change
Closed sales at 3
Price reductions at 2.
Current inventory at 17 with median price of $885K. Two things are going on there. Yes prices are rising but we are seeing more of the bigger homes finally starting to hit the market both of which are pulling the median higher.
With the longer weekend Id expect the negotiations to drag out an extra day. Should be a bunch more pendings in the next 24 hours
June 9, 2021 at 12:34 PM #822063ParticipantUpdate time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable
New listings 7 – back down to earth
New Pendings of 12 – lots of pendings
Thats -5 change
Closed sales at 8
Price reductions at 1.
Current inventory at 14 with median price of $825K.
In the last 30 days there have been 4 homes closing at $1M or more. The floodgates are open now
June 17, 2021 at 10:51 AM #822180ParticipantUggh, went to update and realzed computer shut down without me saving the numbers the last week. Bottom line more of the same
June 23, 2021 at 2:18 PM #822259ParticipantUpdate time. I remember looking at numbers last week before I lost them and thinking no change. Ran numbers yesterday and trend remains.
New listings 9 – back down to earth
New Pendings of 11 – lots of pendings
Thats -2 change
Closed sales at 7
Price reductions at 0.
Current inventory at 18 with median price of $825K.
Slight increase in inventory but nothing of note
June 30, 2021 at 10:57 AM #822346ParticipantUpdate time. Market easing up here also
New listings 7 – falling
New Pendings of 6 – pendings falling
Thats +1 change
Closed sales at 15
Price reductions at 1.
Current inventory at 20 with median price of $850K.
Inventory starting to build. Prices stabilizing here also.
Wait until 3 Roots starts selling homes with people fighting to pay above $1M. Im bullish on MM over longterm. Gonna take 5 to 10 years for real impact to set in but I only see better days ahead for this once humble area
July 2, 2021 at 9:32 PM #822377jmw
ParticipantWill 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?
My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.
July 2, 2021 at 11:36 PM #822378Participant[quote=jmw]Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?
My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]
Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You’ll be proven wrong. Won’t happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.
July 3, 2021 at 12:31 AM #822379Participant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=jmw]Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in “old” Mira Mesa?
My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]
Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You’ll be proven wrong. Won’t happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.[/quote]It also won’t just be 3Roots that will affect MM. There’s an even bigger development called Stonecreek that’ll be about 5-10 years behind 3Roots. They’re estimating that it’ll start building by 2030 and will have ~2.5x more residential unit than 3Roots: https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/stone-creek/
The city is also in the process of rezoning Sorrento Valley, Miramar and the current commercial (strip malls in MM) to be higher density and mix used. https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city-proposes-high-density-housing-in-mira-mesa/
Not to mention all the business high rises popping up around UTC area. This will bring high income earners to the areas.
Mira Mesa will change drastically over the next 20 years.
With regards to 3Roots specifically, it’ll definitely bring people who can afford $1-1.4m houses to the Southwest part of MM. Their kids will go to Jonas Salk & Challenger, which will change the demographic there and drive up the test scores and image of the schools. 3Roots will be building a huge trail system that will benefit residence of the SW part of MM as well.
Like you sdrealtor, I’m extremely bullish here in the medium to long term.
July 3, 2021 at 12:38 AM #822380Participant[quote=jmw]People who don’t get in to 3Roots won’t have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan.[/quote]
Maybe most don’t, but I know one who does.[quote=jmw]Also, I don’t see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.[/quote]
Maybe not mass exodus, but I know a few who are part of the 14k applicants. One was too slow, so won’t be part of phase 1. One is hoping to get on the list for Lennar if they go w/ first come first server. Several others are pondering buying there but no firm commitment.Property tax and HOA are just part of the ownership and some old part of MM do have HOA.
July 3, 2021 at 8:00 AM #822381ParticipantI hope there’s a pop in inventory some time in the next few years to provide another buying opportunity in this area, because I definitely agree with these comments about the long term outlook. 3Roots doesn’t appear to be that pop of inventory since they’re already spoken for. Maybe it’s when the last remaining original owner holdouts move out.
July 3, 2021 at 10:01 AM #822382ParticipantChange comes much slower than people expect but it picks up inertia once it gets going and 3Roots will be the start of a big shift IMO.
I moved to Encinitas in 1997 and it was a pretty sleepy place back then. There was only one restaurant (The Roadhouse) that we could go out and have a nice sit down meal at 9 PM. That all started to change (albeit slowly) shortly thereafter with the arrival of communities like La Costa valley and Encinitas Ranch.
I started in real estate about 20 years ago. At the time I looked around at where I lived and saw everything in place for a momumental change. My friends and colleagues would laugh when I would say we have some bumps ahead but long term this place will become the Newport Beach of SD. I dont think there is any doubt any more that is where we are headed.
When I look at MM I see everything in place for a monumental change there also. Not a beach community but Irvine/Costa Mesa is the future of MM IMO
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