Mira Mesa Monitor

[an]

Rough eye balling, I think we’re about 10-15 above this time last year in nominal price. Add in a massive increase in rates, the monthly payment is drastically higher today than this time last year. One lesson to learn over the last year is, nominal price doesn’t all at the same rate as interest rate increase, so if you’re borrowing to buy a house, lower price doesn’t always mean lower monthly payment.

[sdrealtor]

Got a first ever this week

New listings Big Fat 0 (8)

New Pendings of 4 (9)

Closed sales at 8 (12)

Inventory at 32 (26) with median of 952K (867K). In line with an commment last week median is about 10% above last year.

I cant remember a week with no new lstings. Inventory stays flat with some falling out of contract and some that took a week or two off coming back to try again.

Gonna make a prediction. With new listings as anemic as they are at some point betyween now and y/e we will be at least flat y-o-y on inventory here. That would bode well for at least flatsville next Spring

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (8)

New Pendings of 10 (10)

Closed sales at 8 (13)

Inventory at 32 (24)

Prices are down a nice bit the last few months but enough long time owners are willing to take what market bears. Inventory is staying flat for now but I still think we will see flat y-o-y on inventory here by end of December.

[jmw]

with prices dropping and construction costs increasing, what do you think this double lot is worth?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8896-Aquarius-Dr-92126/home/4799817

They split the lot but they’re both in the same listing. $1.25m for front lot with house, $395k for back lot

[sdrealtor]

Smart investors land bank things like that. You could split it under sb9 and then build two very nice houses each with an adu and jadu. That’s 6 units. It’s worth what the right person will pay for it

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (6)

New Pendings of 7 (8)

Closed sales at 7 (8)

Inventory at 34 (20)

Interesting that the sellers strike isnt as impactful here. Listings have been very consistent not just lately but the entire 20 months Ive been tracking here. There are a good amount of homes coming on the market being sold by long time owners who have passed or aged out. This seems to be a market more impacted by lifecycle events than up in NCC. Its is remarkably consistent and stable here

[jmw]

The mix of houses is interesting too. Flips that aren’t selling sitting out there with a good number of fixers

[sdrealtor]

Trip 7’s!

New listings 7 (10)

New Pendings of 7 (138)

Closed sales at 7 (12)

Inventory at 34 (19) with median of 980 (857).

The trend of most new listings coming from long time owners continues. Some nice spot to be on the market right now. Median asking has dropped and Id guess median sales price moreso but gains over last year are holding so far and nowhere near flat yet y-o-y. Ran a check on last 30 days and its about 932K median vs 858K same period last year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 3 (7)

New Pendings of 8 (12)

Closed sales at 7 (10)

Inventory at 32 (20) with median of 992 (849).

Inventory continues to creep down here. Its dropped about 30% since mid July. Last year it continued on that path until Mid Nov before a bunch took off for the holidays and it didnt recover all Spring. Looking at what is on the market Id guess they are less likely to take it off for the holidays. A bunch of oldtime owners selling vacant homes but something to watch

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (8)

New Pendings of 6 (9)

Closed sales at 4 (12)

Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 985 (855)

Inventory continues creeping down and off July peak count by 1/3. Chugging along here. Anecdotally from what Ive seen here and other similar priced markets, the market in this range is holding up better than higher priced markets.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (9)

New Pendings of 3 (9)

Closed sales at 11 (9)

Inventory at 27 (17) with median of 985 (850)

Bit of a down week for pendings as rates bite into demand. From time to time I look back at my posts from the past as well as the trends I see on my spreadsheet.

Last year we normalized sales above $1m in MM. We also normalized sales of the typical one story 3 or 4 BR between 1100 and 1400 sq ft in the high 900’s/low 1M range through Spring. Now I see a re-normalizing of those homes selling in the 800’s now (skewing toward mid to high 800’s). There are a bunch (about 10) on the market in that range right now and Id suspect we’ll see them gradually sell over the next few months. Above that seems to have gotten tougher

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 (10)

New Pendings of 6 (14)

Closed sales at 2 (6)

Inventory at 29 (16) with median of 965 (887)

Pendings bounced back to the range we’ve been seeing. Market feels well balanced here for now

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (4)

New Pendings of 5 (10)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 28 (12) with median of 980 (918)

MM just keeps chugging along with inventory gradually being depleted. Inventory up in NCC is off 25% from July peak while its down 36% here. Id credit the more affordable housing combined with the ongoing gentrification in MM with lots of new commerical being added along MM Blvd as well as 3 Roots. The sense I get is this area will hit its floor before mine and may not be that far off it

Time to go watch some baseball at Petco

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (9)

Closed sales at 6 (13)

Inventory at 24 (12) with median of 949 (929)

More of the same here. Of note the median list price is edging closer and closer to being flat y-o-y and should be negative in a month based upon current trends and last year. Of course rates were around 3% last year so still adavantage to purchasers then

Saw a great but losing effort by my Phillies on Tuesday at Petco but oh boy did I see an incredible one Sunday night at Citizens Bank:)

[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (8)

New Pendings of 3 (8)

Closed sales at 5 (8)

Inventory at 27 (17) with median of 945 (900)

Little bouncing around of the data possibly due to small sample size but we do have a little more inventory mostly due to less selling.

Last year our market exploded in Spring due to low inventory and low rates. In the last 5 weeks we’ve gotten 19 new listings here. Last year there were 40 over the same period. Not saying we are gonna take off but that does bode well for some relative strenght coming back for sellers. Of course with rates continuing their upward track that will counter a lot if not all of this.

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