Home › Forums › Closed Forums › Properties or Areas › Mira Mesa – 7510 Bannister Ln – 10%+ loss in less than one year
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an.
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March 2, 2012 at 1:50 PM #739166March 2, 2012 at 2:39 PM #739170
an
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]I understand “Sorrento Mesa” is in the MM zip code. But you have stated on this forum that you would like to move up to one of those properties. [/quote]Yeah, the 3-4 properties I want to move up to are in both 92121 and 92126. But none of them are for sale.
[quote=bearishgurl]AN, how long do you think the scarcity of listings in MM will last, making the current available listings there so “hot” and do you personally believe SFR’s in MM are selling faster than usual right now?
[/quote]
I have no idea how long the low inventory will last. I won’t even venture a guess. The property mix right now in MM is horrible if you’re looking for good primary resident. So, the speed of sale is pretty irrelevant if you’re looking for a primary resident.
[quote=bearishgurl]You might not get another chance to unload your house at a price you would accept if a lot more properties get dumped on the market in the future. Just sayin’. . .[/quote]Again, if you read my last post, then you’d know I don’t care. I have little intention of selling, barring from getting an offer 2X market value. What make you think a lot more properties will get dumped on the market in the future?March 2, 2012 at 3:05 PM #739173bearishgurl
Participant[quote=AN]What make you think a lot more properties will get dumped on the market in the future?[/quote]
When these lenders stop playing games and begin to foreclose en masse. I am now seeing 1st TD “NOS properties” reflecting opening bid amounts of nearly twice or twice what the property is actually worth on the open market today, due to “cash-out” refis in combination with scheduled recasts of I/O’s taken out early 2007 and prior!
Something’s gotta give and I just don’t see these lenders modifying these “cash-out” home-debtors to the tune of a $400K+ “principle reduction” OR accepting short payoffs this high when they are all lower/mid-tier properties ($350K – $550K value-range). Of course, every month of postponement of the auction yields a higher opening bid amount. The average length of default is about 24-28 mos. It is astounding and cannot last. No sales have been rescinded thus far and the average number of TS postponements in my “collection” is 7 times.
Worst culprit is WF.
March 2, 2012 at 3:42 PM #739174Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=AN]What make you think a lot more properties will get dumped on the market in the future?[/quote]
When these lenders stop playing games and begin to foreclose en masse. I am now seeing 1st TD “NOS properties” reflecting opening bid amounts of nearly twice or twice what the property is actually worth on the open market today, due to “cash-out” refis in combination with scheduled recasts of I/O’s taken out early 2007 and prior!
Something’s gotta give and I just don’t see these lenders modifying these “cash-out” home-debtors to the tune of a $400K+ “principle reduction” OR accepting short payoffs this high when they are all lower/mid-tier properties ($350K – $550K value-range). Of course, every month of postponement of the auction yields a higher opening bid amount. The average length of default is about 24-28 mos. It is astounding and cannot last. No sales have been rescinded thus far and the average number of TS postponements in my “collection” is 7 times.
Worst culprit is WF.[/quote]
Is this happening everywhere? How many properties in MM do you think is being held back right now and how many properties in MM do you expect will be flooded on the market and when? I’ve heard this tsunami argument for many many years now, and quite frankly, it’s getting quite old.March 3, 2012 at 12:29 AM #739192
CoronitaParticipant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=flu]Ok… enough is enough…I need to get out and take care of real real estate now… [/quote]
Good Luck, flu (I MEAN that)! Hope you can find a “decent” 1/1 which cash-flows every day, all day and will promptly be able to insert a “W-2” tenant in it (who, of course, works at a company that meets with your approval).
And don’t forget, caveat emptor as it applies to HOAs and condo construction!
Sayonara ;=][/quote]
First off… Sayonara, is something you say to someone that is a Jap… I’m not a Jap. I’m a Chink… So more appropriately, it would be “Nei Hao” for hello and “zài jiàn” for goodbye… That’s just what chinks say…Unless you happen to want to express just about every single possible frustration, which is then “Ay-yah!” (which would be almost the equivalent of oy vey)… So to express how devolved this thread has become, one would say “Ay-yah, what the fvck”?
Second, thanks for wishing me for hope and luck. I’m going to bookmark this thread, because I’ll be happy to share when I have an update, good or bad.
I don’t claim to be all knowing especially in M(ickey) M(ouse) area…Or where is the best place to live in MM, or the best worse areas. All I care at this point is rentability and cash flow and not getting shot in the process.
Obviously, you’re really knowledgeable in C(hula) V(ista), so I’m sure you can give be numerous examples of how well rentals down there are cashflowing very well for you personally. I ask, because I want to learn…..Because if true and if supported with real examples, and if the numbers really look good, you know what? Unlike others, I’ll swallow my pride and listen… All this theorizing is great on paper, but I just want real examples of what folks say…
That was what I thought was the entire point of this MM thread or for that matter what I thought about piggington forums in general…Share information.
And again, this thread was about MM, not Chula Vista. If you want to start a thread and talk about Chula Vista and rentalibility of condos and SFH with factual data, I’d be all over it…I’m sure folks would be too.
I don’t care about the emotional side of cities, houses, etc at this point. You can call Carmel Valley a prostitute wasteland or what have you, Mira Mesa as Mira Messy, or San Marcos as a wasteland, or you can be like what all the santee folks love to cheer about how Santee is the next LJ… Doesn’t bug me one bit…
The only and ONLY thing I care about is does property “X” put dollars “Y” into pocket “Z” without FLU getting shot by felon “A” so FLU can buy sh!t “B”.
Everything else is just window dressing for me and my other stream of income: Piggington Weekly.
March 3, 2012 at 8:27 AM #739219sdrealtor
ParticipantSome call the police. FLU stole TG’s crown as wittiest poster.
March 3, 2012 at 8:52 AM #739223
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]Some call the police. FLU stole TG’s crown as wittiest poster.[/quote]
ha ha! there have been some real gems in this thread, I tell you! I have laughed several times! FLU’s last post is indeed a comedy classic!
“ill fated trip” to buy a Dodge Dart among them!!!
Thanks for making tears run down my cheeks, guys 🙂 The comedic relief is appreciated
March 3, 2012 at 9:15 AM #739234ocrenter
ParticipantPersonally I have not heard anyone use “sayonara” since the 80’s. Kinda like the same aged Thomas Bros that told our LETDLITA 4S was part of city of SD.
That also explains the labeling of scripps as far flung. Someone once told me just a few decades prior it use to be completely desolate between Escondido to miramar.
Now it all make sense. It is always important to step into other peoples shoes, in this case, the shoes just happen to be stuck couple of decades prior.
March 3, 2012 at 4:03 PM #739252Participant[quote=flu]First off… Sayonara, is something you say to someone that is a Jap… I’m not a Jap. I’m a Chink… So more appropriately, it would be “Nei Hao” for hello and “zài jiàn” for goodbye… That’s just what chinks say…Unless you happen to want to express just about every single possible frustration, which is then “Ay-yah!” (which would be almost the equivalent of oy vey)… So to express how devolved this thread has become, one would say “Ay-yah, what the fvck”?[/quote]
flu, I wasn’t really thinking about what Nationality you were (or weren’t) when I wrote, “Sayonara,” lol …
[quote=flu]Obviously, you’re really knowledgeable in C(hula) V(ista), so I’m sure you can give be numerous examples of how well rentals down there are cashflowing very well for you personally. I ask, because I want to learn…..[/quote]
flu, I do not currently own any rentals but have had them in the past: one duplex, one SFR with granny flat and one commercial workshop. However, none were in CV (all caps). I AM, however, familiar with the circumstances of several rental SFR’s around me in CV, however. The rental range is about $1600 to $1850 mo and they range from 1175 to abt 1700 sf in size. Year built is 1947 to 1961. HOWEVER, the owners are ALL seniors who are keeping the properties in their trusts. One property has about $32K owing on it and the others are free and clear. So, of course, they are ALL using the properties for a retirement income stream. ALL of the owners live within 3 miles of their rental and manage themselves. One of them is managed by the owner’s 64 yo son. So what’s happening around me is really of no help to a potential investor who will take out a mtg except to say that these properties can now be purchased for about $265K to $330K.
[quote=flu]I don’t care about the emotional side of cities, houses, etc at this point. You can call Carmel Valley a prostitute wasteland or what have you, Mira Mesa as Mira Messy, or San Marcos as a wasteland, or you can be like what all the santee folks love to cheer about how Santee is the next LJ… Doesn’t bug me one bit…[/quote]
I don’t care either. I’ve heard enough Chula Juana jokes and inferences for the last three decades to last me the rest of my life. The vast majority of them are made by people who have never exited the fwy in CV (all caps). The locals here just shrug their shoulders and enjoy their convenient lives on their larger-than-std lots (many with ocean views) with no MR/HOA :=]
[quote=flu]Everything else is just window dressing for me and my other stream of income: Piggington Weekly.[/quote]
Seriously, flu, if you had the time, you would make a GREAT blogger! Not sure if that “occupation” generates very much income, though. Maybe you should ask Rich 🙂
March 3, 2012 at 4:44 PM #739254Participant[quote=ocrenter]…Now it all make sense. It is always important to step into other peoples shoes, in this case, the shoes just happen to be stuck couple of decades prior.[/quote]
The shoes aren’t “stuck.” They are just very durable and have a l-o-o-o-o-ng memory (which serves them very well on occasion) :=]
March 3, 2012 at 4:53 PM #739255Participant[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Some call the police. FLU stole TG’s crown as wittiest poster.[/quote]
ha ha! there have been some real gems in this thread, I tell you! I have laughed several times! FLU’s last post is indeed a comedy classic!
“ill fated trip” to buy a Dodge Dart among them!!!
Thanks for making tears run down my cheeks, guys 🙂 The comedic relief is appreciated[/quote]
Lol, svelte. Except I wasn’t up there trying to buy a “Dodge Dart” (similar to the one that sdr was driving at the time). I was trying to buy one of these in a pearlized white/gold combination with a “gold kit,” although not so much “tricked out.”
http://www.cardomain.com/ride/164603/1994-lexus-es
With a $16K asking price at the time, it was valued at nearly $19K on the kbb and only had 21K miles on it! The owner had been quite ill for while and had left it garaged.
I ended up buying a luxury sedan soon after ….
I’ve never owned a Dodge. You must be confusing me with sdr’s vehicle preferences.
March 3, 2012 at 11:34 PM #739262ParticipantTalking about inventory in Mira Mesa earlier, here’s the number as of right now:
[img_assist|nid=15904|title=MM Inventory|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=416|height=466]For an area with 23k house hold and the population of 74k people, there’s currently only 97 SFR and 68 condos for sale. This number include all the SS inventory that’s currently contingent. So, BG, when are you expecting the shadow inventory to hit the market?
March 4, 2012 at 10:05 AM #739275Still Surfing
ParticipantAlthough inventory may be low there are some serious issues in Mira Mesa coming down the pipeline.
According to January Corelogic data there are approx 4000 in 92126 that have negative equity in their homes. When you look at the data on a granular level most of these people above above average interests rates and will not be able to refinance.
As we have seen negative equity creates illiquidity when life change events occur such as job relocation , divorce Heath issues etc. you saw this on the house mentioned in he article.
I am predicting a perfect storm as we will see a surge in short sales especially in Mira Mesa as banks want to mitigate foreclosure risks(bad publicity) and costs( costs less the ss that to foreclose).
In 2012 sellers need to take advantage of the tax free status of forgiving debt that expires in 2012. That in combination with cash buyers creates perfect market conditions to clean the debt off the books of many homeowners underwater.
March 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM #739276CoronitaParticipant[quote=Still Surfing]Although inventory may be low there are some serious issues in Mira Mesa coming down the pipeline.
According to January Corelogic data there are approx 4000 in 92126 that have negative equity in their homes. When you look at the data on a granular level most of these people above above average interests rates and will not be able to refinance.
As we have seen negative equity creates illiquidity when life change events occur such as job relocation , divorce Heath issues etc. you saw this on the house mentioned in he article.
I am predicting a perfect storm as we will see a surge in short sales especially in Mira Mesa as banks want to mitigate foreclosure risks(bad publicity) and costs( costs less the ss that to foreclose).
In 2012 sellers need to take advantage of the tax free status of forgiving debt that expires in 2012. That in combination with cash buyers creates perfect market conditions to clean the debt off the books of many homeowners underwater.[/quote]
Excuse the ignorance here. But what does the expiration of the debt forgiveness (which personally I think will get extended or some other thing replace it) affect things? It’s not exactly like a seller ways up and says “hey bank, I need you to foreclose or me or complete this short sale before 2012 so I can take advantage of the debt forgiveness tax free status”… It just doesn’t seem to work that way. Banks are in the drivers seat the way I look at it. It just seems like if it’s true there are 4000+ underwater homes in MM a lot of them would have walked already.
March 4, 2012 at 6:23 PM #739288Participant[quote=Still Surfing]Although inventory may be low there are some serious issues in Mira Mesa coming down the pipeline.
According to January Corelogic data there are approx 4000 in 92126 that have negative equity in their homes. When you look at the data on a granular level most of these people above above average interests rates and will not be able to refinance.
As we have seen negative equity creates illiquidity when life change events occur such as job relocation , divorce Heath issues etc. you saw this on the house mentioned in he article.
I am predicting a perfect storm as we will see a surge in short sales especially in Mira Mesa as banks want to mitigate foreclosure risks(bad publicity) and costs( costs less the ss that to foreclose).
In 2012 sellers need to take advantage of the tax free status of forgiving debt that expires in 2012. That in combination with cash buyers creates perfect market conditions to clean the debt off the books of many homeowners underwater.[/quote]
What make you think all 4000 are distress and they all are trying/going to sell? How many of those 4000 will have to sell? I don’t have that answer, but I’m pretty sure it’s not 100%.We’ll come back to this thread in 9 months and see if the perfect storm will hit this year. I’ve heard the “tsunami”, “perfect storm”, etc. for many years now.
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