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PadreBrian.
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January 7, 2009 at 11:15 AM #14770January 7, 2009 at 11:39 AM #325461
SD Realtor
ParticipantYes I completely agree that in the 500-700k range in areas like NCC and I15 corridor prices are moving very slowly. By the same token there is still enough buying activity to keep the prices from falling faster. This is very confounding to buyers looking for the steep drops that are greatly anticipated. If you have patience, it “should happen” but you need continued stress and catalyst activity to get that push. This can take form in job loss/employment, overall dour economy and a HANDS OFF approach by our government to let lenders foreclose on properties.
Unfortunately this does nto seem to be the preferred method our government wants to take so we have this battle of opposing forces.
As a realtor it can be very challenging to deal with sellers who believe that there is “someone out there” who will buy the home at the desired price. Some sellers get it and some don’t. You can be as forceful as you want with a seller but if the seller doesn’t want to price aggressively then you have a choice of dropping the listing or don’t drop it. I can tell you that for every possible sellers there are still ALOT of agents pumping them up with unrealistic expectations that they are super agents and can sell the home for what that seller wants. Not as many as there used to be but plenty still.
January 7, 2009 at 11:39 AM #325798ParticipantYes I completely agree that in the 500-700k range in areas like NCC and I15 corridor prices are moving very slowly. By the same token there is still enough buying activity to keep the prices from falling faster. This is very confounding to buyers looking for the steep drops that are greatly anticipated. If you have patience, it “should happen” but you need continued stress and catalyst activity to get that push. This can take form in job loss/employment, overall dour economy and a HANDS OFF approach by our government to let lenders foreclose on properties.
Unfortunately this does nto seem to be the preferred method our government wants to take so we have this battle of opposing forces.
As a realtor it can be very challenging to deal with sellers who believe that there is “someone out there” who will buy the home at the desired price. Some sellers get it and some don’t. You can be as forceful as you want with a seller but if the seller doesn’t want to price aggressively then you have a choice of dropping the listing or don’t drop it. I can tell you that for every possible sellers there are still ALOT of agents pumping them up with unrealistic expectations that they are super agents and can sell the home for what that seller wants. Not as many as there used to be but plenty still.
January 7, 2009 at 11:39 AM #325868ParticipantYes I completely agree that in the 500-700k range in areas like NCC and I15 corridor prices are moving very slowly. By the same token there is still enough buying activity to keep the prices from falling faster. This is very confounding to buyers looking for the steep drops that are greatly anticipated. If you have patience, it “should happen” but you need continued stress and catalyst activity to get that push. This can take form in job loss/employment, overall dour economy and a HANDS OFF approach by our government to let lenders foreclose on properties.
Unfortunately this does nto seem to be the preferred method our government wants to take so we have this battle of opposing forces.
As a realtor it can be very challenging to deal with sellers who believe that there is “someone out there” who will buy the home at the desired price. Some sellers get it and some don’t. You can be as forceful as you want with a seller but if the seller doesn’t want to price aggressively then you have a choice of dropping the listing or don’t drop it. I can tell you that for every possible sellers there are still ALOT of agents pumping them up with unrealistic expectations that they are super agents and can sell the home for what that seller wants. Not as many as there used to be but plenty still.
January 7, 2009 at 11:39 AM #325885ParticipantYes I completely agree that in the 500-700k range in areas like NCC and I15 corridor prices are moving very slowly. By the same token there is still enough buying activity to keep the prices from falling faster. This is very confounding to buyers looking for the steep drops that are greatly anticipated. If you have patience, it “should happen” but you need continued stress and catalyst activity to get that push. This can take form in job loss/employment, overall dour economy and a HANDS OFF approach by our government to let lenders foreclose on properties.
Unfortunately this does nto seem to be the preferred method our government wants to take so we have this battle of opposing forces.
As a realtor it can be very challenging to deal with sellers who believe that there is “someone out there” who will buy the home at the desired price. Some sellers get it and some don’t. You can be as forceful as you want with a seller but if the seller doesn’t want to price aggressively then you have a choice of dropping the listing or don’t drop it. I can tell you that for every possible sellers there are still ALOT of agents pumping them up with unrealistic expectations that they are super agents and can sell the home for what that seller wants. Not as many as there used to be but plenty still.
January 7, 2009 at 11:39 AM #325967ParticipantYes I completely agree that in the 500-700k range in areas like NCC and I15 corridor prices are moving very slowly. By the same token there is still enough buying activity to keep the prices from falling faster. This is very confounding to buyers looking for the steep drops that are greatly anticipated. If you have patience, it “should happen” but you need continued stress and catalyst activity to get that push. This can take form in job loss/employment, overall dour economy and a HANDS OFF approach by our government to let lenders foreclose on properties.
Unfortunately this does nto seem to be the preferred method our government wants to take so we have this battle of opposing forces.
As a realtor it can be very challenging to deal with sellers who believe that there is “someone out there” who will buy the home at the desired price. Some sellers get it and some don’t. You can be as forceful as you want with a seller but if the seller doesn’t want to price aggressively then you have a choice of dropping the listing or don’t drop it. I can tell you that for every possible sellers there are still ALOT of agents pumping them up with unrealistic expectations that they are super agents and can sell the home for what that seller wants. Not as many as there used to be but plenty still.
January 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM #325471SDEngineer
ParticipantJust as a reasonably educated guess, I’d guess it’s a combination of a few factors.
Primarily, I think that for many of them, their loans – even at bubble prices – are still largely affordable, hence you don’t have the massive downward pressure caused by forced sales (either short or foreclosed). A couple of reasons for this:
1) Upper middle class buyers have larger reserves, and can hold out longer when rates reset, etc, before they have to give it up (typically, their credit rating is also substantially more important to them as well, meaning that they are more likely to cut expenses to continue to make payments. They also probably had more discretionary expenses that can be cut out to be able to stretch to make the payment.)
2) They probably weren’t subprime, meaning that for many (most?) of them, they’re still making probably the same payment they bought at. This might change when the alt-A neg-am mortgages start to hit their caps and go bad en masse, which I believe is predicted to start this year.
3) Many were move-up buyers, so they probably entered these markets with a down payment that was just as inflated by the bubble as the real estate they bought. It’s probably a lot easier for a household making 100K a year to afford a 600K home they bought in 2005 when they went in with a 300K downpayment from the sale of their previous Mira Mesa home for 450K that they bought for 200K 10 years before than it would be for a first time buyer who neg-am financed that 600K home. Dunno how common this was though, or whether most of these type of move up buyers took their bubble appreciation as a windfall and spent it.My personal feeling is that they’ll still get hit (over the long run, they have to come down to the historical relationship between move-up housing and entry level housing), but it will probably take longer (though I expect them to get hit with the alt-A tidal wave this year most likely). They’ll probably also bounce along at their areas bottom for longer while inflation raises other areas that bottomed sooner and lower to the point where they reach that historical price relationship between entry level housing and move-up housing.
January 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM #325808ParticipantJust as a reasonably educated guess, I’d guess it’s a combination of a few factors.
Primarily, I think that for many of them, their loans – even at bubble prices – are still largely affordable, hence you don’t have the massive downward pressure caused by forced sales (either short or foreclosed). A couple of reasons for this:
1) Upper middle class buyers have larger reserves, and can hold out longer when rates reset, etc, before they have to give it up (typically, their credit rating is also substantially more important to them as well, meaning that they are more likely to cut expenses to continue to make payments. They also probably had more discretionary expenses that can be cut out to be able to stretch to make the payment.)
2) They probably weren’t subprime, meaning that for many (most?) of them, they’re still making probably the same payment they bought at. This might change when the alt-A neg-am mortgages start to hit their caps and go bad en masse, which I believe is predicted to start this year.
3) Many were move-up buyers, so they probably entered these markets with a down payment that was just as inflated by the bubble as the real estate they bought. It’s probably a lot easier for a household making 100K a year to afford a 600K home they bought in 2005 when they went in with a 300K downpayment from the sale of their previous Mira Mesa home for 450K that they bought for 200K 10 years before than it would be for a first time buyer who neg-am financed that 600K home. Dunno how common this was though, or whether most of these type of move up buyers took their bubble appreciation as a windfall and spent it.My personal feeling is that they’ll still get hit (over the long run, they have to come down to the historical relationship between move-up housing and entry level housing), but it will probably take longer (though I expect them to get hit with the alt-A tidal wave this year most likely). They’ll probably also bounce along at their areas bottom for longer while inflation raises other areas that bottomed sooner and lower to the point where they reach that historical price relationship between entry level housing and move-up housing.
January 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM #325878ParticipantJust as a reasonably educated guess, I’d guess it’s a combination of a few factors.
Primarily, I think that for many of them, their loans – even at bubble prices – are still largely affordable, hence you don’t have the massive downward pressure caused by forced sales (either short or foreclosed). A couple of reasons for this:
1) Upper middle class buyers have larger reserves, and can hold out longer when rates reset, etc, before they have to give it up (typically, their credit rating is also substantially more important to them as well, meaning that they are more likely to cut expenses to continue to make payments. They also probably had more discretionary expenses that can be cut out to be able to stretch to make the payment.)
2) They probably weren’t subprime, meaning that for many (most?) of them, they’re still making probably the same payment they bought at. This might change when the alt-A neg-am mortgages start to hit their caps and go bad en masse, which I believe is predicted to start this year.
3) Many were move-up buyers, so they probably entered these markets with a down payment that was just as inflated by the bubble as the real estate they bought. It’s probably a lot easier for a household making 100K a year to afford a 600K home they bought in 2005 when they went in with a 300K downpayment from the sale of their previous Mira Mesa home for 450K that they bought for 200K 10 years before than it would be for a first time buyer who neg-am financed that 600K home. Dunno how common this was though, or whether most of these type of move up buyers took their bubble appreciation as a windfall and spent it.My personal feeling is that they’ll still get hit (over the long run, they have to come down to the historical relationship between move-up housing and entry level housing), but it will probably take longer (though I expect them to get hit with the alt-A tidal wave this year most likely). They’ll probably also bounce along at their areas bottom for longer while inflation raises other areas that bottomed sooner and lower to the point where they reach that historical price relationship between entry level housing and move-up housing.
January 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM #325895ParticipantJust as a reasonably educated guess, I’d guess it’s a combination of a few factors.
Primarily, I think that for many of them, their loans – even at bubble prices – are still largely affordable, hence you don’t have the massive downward pressure caused by forced sales (either short or foreclosed). A couple of reasons for this:
1) Upper middle class buyers have larger reserves, and can hold out longer when rates reset, etc, before they have to give it up (typically, their credit rating is also substantially more important to them as well, meaning that they are more likely to cut expenses to continue to make payments. They also probably had more discretionary expenses that can be cut out to be able to stretch to make the payment.)
2) They probably weren’t subprime, meaning that for many (most?) of them, they’re still making probably the same payment they bought at. This might change when the alt-A neg-am mortgages start to hit their caps and go bad en masse, which I believe is predicted to start this year.
3) Many were move-up buyers, so they probably entered these markets with a down payment that was just as inflated by the bubble as the real estate they bought. It’s probably a lot easier for a household making 100K a year to afford a 600K home they bought in 2005 when they went in with a 300K downpayment from the sale of their previous Mira Mesa home for 450K that they bought for 200K 10 years before than it would be for a first time buyer who neg-am financed that 600K home. Dunno how common this was though, or whether most of these type of move up buyers took their bubble appreciation as a windfall and spent it.My personal feeling is that they’ll still get hit (over the long run, they have to come down to the historical relationship between move-up housing and entry level housing), but it will probably take longer (though I expect them to get hit with the alt-A tidal wave this year most likely). They’ll probably also bounce along at their areas bottom for longer while inflation raises other areas that bottomed sooner and lower to the point where they reach that historical price relationship between entry level housing and move-up housing.
January 7, 2009 at 11:47 AM #325977ParticipantJust as a reasonably educated guess, I’d guess it’s a combination of a few factors.
Primarily, I think that for many of them, their loans – even at bubble prices – are still largely affordable, hence you don’t have the massive downward pressure caused by forced sales (either short or foreclosed). A couple of reasons for this:
1) Upper middle class buyers have larger reserves, and can hold out longer when rates reset, etc, before they have to give it up (typically, their credit rating is also substantially more important to them as well, meaning that they are more likely to cut expenses to continue to make payments. They also probably had more discretionary expenses that can be cut out to be able to stretch to make the payment.)
2) They probably weren’t subprime, meaning that for many (most?) of them, they’re still making probably the same payment they bought at. This might change when the alt-A neg-am mortgages start to hit their caps and go bad en masse, which I believe is predicted to start this year.
3) Many were move-up buyers, so they probably entered these markets with a down payment that was just as inflated by the bubble as the real estate they bought. It’s probably a lot easier for a household making 100K a year to afford a 600K home they bought in 2005 when they went in with a 300K downpayment from the sale of their previous Mira Mesa home for 450K that they bought for 200K 10 years before than it would be for a first time buyer who neg-am financed that 600K home. Dunno how common this was though, or whether most of these type of move up buyers took their bubble appreciation as a windfall and spent it.My personal feeling is that they’ll still get hit (over the long run, they have to come down to the historical relationship between move-up housing and entry level housing), but it will probably take longer (though I expect them to get hit with the alt-A tidal wave this year most likely). They’ll probably also bounce along at their areas bottom for longer while inflation raises other areas that bottomed sooner and lower to the point where they reach that historical price relationship between entry level housing and move-up housing.
January 7, 2009 at 12:02 PM #325496Scarlett
ParticipantThe drop last year of those mid-price houses in those areas didn’t seem to be more than 5-10%. Does anybody have hard(er) data on this particular market segment?
I am afraid they will not drop more than another 10%-15% before THEY hit ‘bottom’.
Nevertheless, I shall wait another year at least to get a clearer picture. Nothing to lose, I don’t think they will go UP in the next few years…January 7, 2009 at 12:02 PM #325834ParticipantThe drop last year of those mid-price houses in those areas didn’t seem to be more than 5-10%. Does anybody have hard(er) data on this particular market segment?
I am afraid they will not drop more than another 10%-15% before THEY hit ‘bottom’.
Nevertheless, I shall wait another year at least to get a clearer picture. Nothing to lose, I don’t think they will go UP in the next few years…January 7, 2009 at 12:02 PM #325904ParticipantThe drop last year of those mid-price houses in those areas didn’t seem to be more than 5-10%. Does anybody have hard(er) data on this particular market segment?
I am afraid they will not drop more than another 10%-15% before THEY hit ‘bottom’.
Nevertheless, I shall wait another year at least to get a clearer picture. Nothing to lose, I don’t think they will go UP in the next few years…January 7, 2009 at 12:02 PM #325921ParticipantThe drop last year of those mid-price houses in those areas didn’t seem to be more than 5-10%. Does anybody have hard(er) data on this particular market segment?
I am afraid they will not drop more than another 10%-15% before THEY hit ‘bottom’.
Nevertheless, I shall wait another year at least to get a clearer picture. Nothing to lose, I don’t think they will go UP in the next few years… -
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