Managing the bubble

[admin]

Looks like China is being successful in cooling off it’s real estate market.

Will they be able to engineer a cooling off that doesn’t endanger growth and that promotes a sustainable transition to a more consumer oriented economy?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/business/global/government-policies-cool-china-real-estate-boom.html?_r=1&hp

[sdduuuude]

[quote=briansd1]Will they be able to engineer a cooling off that doesn’t endanger growth and that promotes a sustainable transition to a more consumer oriented economy?[/quote]

No.

[briansd1]

The rise of China is the great social political and economic story our times, perhaps greater than the fall of Soviet Union, IMO.

For the last 20 years, we’ve heard about possible political and economic collapse in China. But the Chinese state capitalists have reinvented themselves and have been powering on.

The transition to a consumer economy will be the great test of China’s leaders.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/obama-heads-to-asia-with-sharp-focus-on-chinas-growing-power/2011/11/10/gIQAOsQkBN_story.html

[The-Shoveler]

On the other hand

If Ben could have managed 30-50% wage inflation over the last ten years we could have managed our housing bubble too !!!

60% of China wealthiest want to leave
A 30-40% reallocation of this wealth overseas would see the depletion of China’s foreign exchange reserve by close to 1 trillion USD or more

Becoming more like south America ?
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/china-and-its-neighbors/100121/battling-shenzhens-child-snatchers

[markmax33]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=briansd1]Will they be able to engineer a cooling off that doesn’t endanger growth and that promotes a sustainable transition to a more consumer oriented economy?[/quote]

No.[/quote]
Central banks always fail!

[briansd1]

All you need is a couple hundred years of great success.

[markmax33]

[quote=briansd1]All you need is a couple hundred years of great success.[/quote]
It’s never ever happened. We delinked from gold in 1971.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=briansd1]The rise of China is the great social political and economic story our times, perhaps greater than the fall of Soviet Union, IMO.

For the last 20 years, we’ve heard about possible political and economic collapse in China. But the Chinese state capitalists have reinvented themselves and have been powering on.

The transition to a consumer economy will be the great test of China’s leaders.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/obama-heads-to-asia-with-sharp-focus-on-chinas-growing-power/2011/11/10/gIQAOsQkBN_story.html%5B/quote%5D

Brian: China is a Potemkin village. And there is no such thing as “Chinese state capitalists”. You can attempt to delude yourself into believing this is so, but this is an authoritarian Communist regime, make no mistake.

If you think there is any actual “capitalism” going on in China, you clearly haven’t been there in a while or been there at all. When all of those bad loans finally come due, you are going to hear a crashing sound unlike any you’ve ever heard before.

As with everything else in life: The facts are the facts, and fundamentals are fundamentals.

[Author]

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