Latest Case Shiller Data

[cr]

New Case Shiller numbers came out today, though I’m sure Rich will do a far superior job of presenting them, here are the basics for the NSA:

San Diego:
– 3% decline in October, 4th worst Month-to-month decline since peak
– 24.1% decline from last October
– 29.1% decline this year
– 36.4% decline from November 2005 peak

Los Angeles
– 2.6% decline in October, 6th worst Month-to-month decline since peak
– 25.2% decline from last October
– 19.9% decline this year
– 34.4% decline from September 2006 peak

The cyclical rate of falling prices seems to still be accelerating: the months of July, August, September, and October all fell further this year than last year in LA and SD.

November to February were all worse months than July-Oct last cycle, and I can’t see any reason why they won’t be worse again.

Inventories may be down due to higher sales/lower prices, but with the rest of the financial world in far worse shape than even 6 months ago 2009 may see even more substantial price drops.

Maybe one day the media and Washington will realize low home prices are a good thing.

[peterb]

Anyone want to go “out on a limb” with a prediction for 2009?

[peterb]

Anyone want to go “out on a limb” with a prediction for 2009?

[peterb]

Anyone want to go “out on a limb” with a prediction for 2009?

[peterb]

Anyone want to go “out on a limb” with a prediction for 2009?

[peterb]

Anyone want to go “out on a limb” with a prediction for 2009?

[cr]

I don’t think we’re any more than half way done timewise.

The job market alone is enough to keep things from turning around. Then there are the “Prime” low/no-doc option ARMs.

I think we could still see 20-30% declines from where prices are today.

[cr]

I don’t think we’re any more than half way done timewise.

The job market alone is enough to keep things from turning around. Then there are the “Prime” low/no-doc option ARMs.

I think we could still see 20-30% declines from where prices are today.

[cr]

I don’t think we’re any more than half way done timewise.

The job market alone is enough to keep things from turning around. Then there are the “Prime” low/no-doc option ARMs.

I think we could still see 20-30% declines from where prices are today.

[cr]

I don’t think we’re any more than half way done timewise.

The job market alone is enough to keep things from turning around. Then there are the “Prime” low/no-doc option ARMs.

I think we could still see 20-30% declines from where prices are today.

[cr]

I don’t think we’re any more than half way done timewise.

The job market alone is enough to keep things from turning around. Then there are the “Prime” low/no-doc option ARMs.

I think we could still see 20-30% declines from where prices are today.

[ariffe22]

barring any crazy moves by the Feds, the Index will bottom out in September 2009.

[ariffe22]

barring any crazy moves by the Feds, the Index will bottom out in September 2009.

[ariffe22]

barring any crazy moves by the Feds, the Index will bottom out in September 2009.

[ariffe22]

barring any crazy moves by the Feds, the Index will bottom out in September 2009.

[Author]

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