Its official folks . . . SD RE YOY inventory is now shrinking.

[barnaby33]

tomato, its too bad Rich isn’t an deflationista. Home prices didn’t rise all that fast before inflation became such a large factor in our monetary thought. We may indeed end up paying 4 million for a home, but only if the Fed manages to keep the inflation going. So far they haven’t had much luck.

I just realized I was thread-jacking. To answer shizo’s question, decreasing inventory really doesn’t mean much of anything. Tis a big ship our real estate market, she turns slowly aye, but when she does she moves long distances before turning again, arggghhh. We’ve along we togo a’fore we reach shore, lets not be jumpin up n down in the f’ocsle ever time we think we spot land.

Josh

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.

So how do we interpret it?

Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.

As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.

Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.

This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.

Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.

It does bear watching though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.

So how do we interpret it?

Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.

As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.

Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.

This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.

Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.

It does bear watching though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.

So how do we interpret it?

Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.

As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.

Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.

This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.

Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.

It does bear watching though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.

So how do we interpret it?

Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.

As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.

Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.

This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.

Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.

It does bear watching though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I can recall many a post of people calling for 30k inventory levels… What you are bringing to the post is factual data which is always welcome.

So how do we interpret it?

Well I think we need to analyze the data on a longer timescale. In my opinion the statistics I look at seem to still support the fact that the SECULAR depreciation trend is still in full force. I said it before and will again, that we will always see cyclical rallies within the secular envelope. I called for this to happen back in the winter and if anything I am pretty surprised at the ferocity of it. It will not surprise me to see it run again next spring as well.

As much as people want to say the increased lending limits will make no difference I believe this to not be true. I think they do indeed make a difference. Whether it is measureable is another matter.

Additionally I think that the reset curve data should be updated. I do believe we will see another wave of resets that will affect things starting at the end of 09 and we will see those manifestations in 10, and 11.

This is just my guess and I could be wrong. Certainly those people who are serious buyers and who have been submitting offers on homes in Carmel Valley and other like neighborhoods have been quite frustrated this spring.

Schizo I don’t that this statistic bears a bottom. Certainly though lets see how the numbers run for the next 6 months and see what happens.

It does bear watching though.

SD Realtor

[tomato]

History does not repeat itself unless all the variables are nearly identical. I realize this is a theory as it is impossible to freeze variables in economics.
The very VERY main thing to remember is (young fellow) is that there is more to life then money. Study Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Buying a house cheaper next year does not compare with watching your toddler play with a puppy in your own overpriced backyard this year. No matter the size of the backyard.
I guess deciding on a house is like deciding what makes you happy. Each to their own. Judge for yourself.

[tomato]

History does not repeat itself unless all the variables are nearly identical. I realize this is a theory as it is impossible to freeze variables in economics.
The very VERY main thing to remember is (young fellow) is that there is more to life then money. Study Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Buying a house cheaper next year does not compare with watching your toddler play with a puppy in your own overpriced backyard this year. No matter the size of the backyard.
I guess deciding on a house is like deciding what makes you happy. Each to their own. Judge for yourself.

[tomato]

History does not repeat itself unless all the variables are nearly identical. I realize this is a theory as it is impossible to freeze variables in economics.
The very VERY main thing to remember is (young fellow) is that there is more to life then money. Study Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Buying a house cheaper next year does not compare with watching your toddler play with a puppy in your own overpriced backyard this year. No matter the size of the backyard.
I guess deciding on a house is like deciding what makes you happy. Each to their own. Judge for yourself.

[tomato]

History does not repeat itself unless all the variables are nearly identical. I realize this is a theory as it is impossible to freeze variables in economics.
The very VERY main thing to remember is (young fellow) is that there is more to life then money. Study Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Buying a house cheaper next year does not compare with watching your toddler play with a puppy in your own overpriced backyard this year. No matter the size of the backyard.
I guess deciding on a house is like deciding what makes you happy. Each to their own. Judge for yourself.

[tomato]

History does not repeat itself unless all the variables are nearly identical. I realize this is a theory as it is impossible to freeze variables in economics.
The very VERY main thing to remember is (young fellow) is that there is more to life then money. Study Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
Buying a house cheaper next year does not compare with watching your toddler play with a puppy in your own overpriced backyard this year. No matter the size of the backyard.
I guess deciding on a house is like deciding what makes you happy. Each to their own. Judge for yourself.

[SD Realtor]

Tomato as you know, or maybe not if you are pretty new to the board, that there are people here who will never acknowledge any reason to buy a home with downside risk still inherent in the market. Discussions about family harmony, not having to deal with landlords, giving something to your spouse or family that they want have at times been completely dismissed.

The bottom line is that everyone has a reason to buy or not buy a home. Renting for some is fine but for others it is not. It is unfortunate that there are people who simply have no tolerance for it. Pretty much in thier eyes there are those who don’t buy and every other person is a knife catcher. While this may indeed be true, what is also true is that many of those who are catching that knife simply have a higher priority then buying at the bottom of the market… to the chagrin of many people.

There really is no argument about the market direction. However many people measure happiness in thier own lives by much more then findnng the bottom of the market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tomato as you know, or maybe not if you are pretty new to the board, that there are people here who will never acknowledge any reason to buy a home with downside risk still inherent in the market. Discussions about family harmony, not having to deal with landlords, giving something to your spouse or family that they want have at times been completely dismissed.

The bottom line is that everyone has a reason to buy or not buy a home. Renting for some is fine but for others it is not. It is unfortunate that there are people who simply have no tolerance for it. Pretty much in thier eyes there are those who don’t buy and every other person is a knife catcher. While this may indeed be true, what is also true is that many of those who are catching that knife simply have a higher priority then buying at the bottom of the market… to the chagrin of many people.

There really is no argument about the market direction. However many people measure happiness in thier own lives by much more then findnng the bottom of the market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tomato as you know, or maybe not if you are pretty new to the board, that there are people here who will never acknowledge any reason to buy a home with downside risk still inherent in the market. Discussions about family harmony, not having to deal with landlords, giving something to your spouse or family that they want have at times been completely dismissed.

The bottom line is that everyone has a reason to buy or not buy a home. Renting for some is fine but for others it is not. It is unfortunate that there are people who simply have no tolerance for it. Pretty much in thier eyes there are those who don’t buy and every other person is a knife catcher. While this may indeed be true, what is also true is that many of those who are catching that knife simply have a higher priority then buying at the bottom of the market… to the chagrin of many people.

There really is no argument about the market direction. However many people measure happiness in thier own lives by much more then findnng the bottom of the market.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Tomato as you know, or maybe not if you are pretty new to the board, that there are people here who will never acknowledge any reason to buy a home with downside risk still inherent in the market. Discussions about family harmony, not having to deal with landlords, giving something to your spouse or family that they want have at times been completely dismissed.

The bottom line is that everyone has a reason to buy or not buy a home. Renting for some is fine but for others it is not. It is unfortunate that there are people who simply have no tolerance for it. Pretty much in thier eyes there are those who don’t buy and every other person is a knife catcher. While this may indeed be true, what is also true is that many of those who are catching that knife simply have a higher priority then buying at the bottom of the market… to the chagrin of many people.

There really is no argument about the market direction. However many people measure happiness in thier own lives by much more then findnng the bottom of the market.

SD Realtor

[Author]

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