Inflation in 2017 so far: 0.0%

[FlyerInHi]

Did you guys notice that appliances are cheaper in real and nominal terms. Kinda weird since real estate is booming.

Dishwashers are all under $900 even for the higher end, such as Kitchen Aid. You can often find front load washer/dryer for $500 each. Plenty of stainless stoves in the $500-$600 range.

The 3 big appliances makers (whirlpool, Electrolux, GE/Haier) must by battling for market share.

A search found this. It confirms my observations because I shop at Home Depot a lot.
http://www.in2013dollars.com/Appliances/price-inflation

[spdrun]

(1) More demand in urban areas that don’t renovate as often and use smaller (cheaper) appliances.
(2) Digital controls last longer than mechanical timers. Less demand for new appliances since old ones last longer.
(3) Digital controls are actually cheaper than the rotary timers popular in the 80s and 90s.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun](1) More demand in urban areas that don’t renovate as often and use smaller (cheaper) appliances.
(2) Digital controls last longer than mechanical timers. Less demand for new appliances since old ones last longer.
(3) Digital controls are actually cheaper than the rotary timers popular in the 80s and 90s.[/quote]

Interesting perspective especially with regard to urban areas. Yes, urban housing is appreciating at a higher rate than suburban and rural locales.

We definitely need more stuff designed for urban living. And you’re seeing that from Crate Barrel, Pottery Barn/CB2, etc…

spdrun, you’d be surprised that smaller appliances are not cheaper but more expensive than standard size. Standard stoves are 30″ wide and refrigerators 36″. The skinny 24″ wides are more expensive and the only suppliers were foreign makes such as Bosch, Summit, Asko, Fisher/Paykel… Thankfully, we now have competition from Haier, the Chinese brand. Great design and quality in my opinion, at non-premium prices.
https://www.haieramerica.com/product/HRF15N3BGF

I remodeled some studios and, design wise, it’s funny to install full size standard American appliances. I use 2-burner cooktops and 24 microwave/convection oven from Ikea below for as sleek euro look.

Anyway with regard to inflation, it always nice to see productivity drive down costs so we can enjoy higher standards of living.

[spdrun]

Summit appliance is actually a US brand. We had a Summit stove from the early 80s in our apartment.

US-brand (GE, etc) 20″ and 24″ stoves aren’t actually all that uncommon. Nor are 18″ dishwashers.

2-burner cooktops are silly. A basic meal almost requires three burners. I made fish with rice + sauce the other day. One burner for the sauce pan. Another for the rice pot. A third for string beans on the side.

Plus 2-burner units don’t have an oven underneath — where’s the broiler to make the fish?

[FlyerInHi]

Spd, since you live in NYC you may be interested to know that Whirlpool has new ventless condensing dryers with heat pump. The first ventless heat pumps in USA. LG has a vented version. Awesome for retrofitting NYC apartments.

[spdrun]

My next place will be uptown (Wash Heights) where they care much less about clothing lines in the back alley. Natural dryers > mechanical ones.

[Anonymous]

Agree on these points.

This is the US, where life, liberty and credit are and have been the new norm in modern society. Just because its not real estate recession, doesnt mean we wont have another credit recession.

If the amount of credit card offers I have received in teh past 16 months is any indicator (718 FICO), then I feel those flood gates have opened on a wider scale where access to credit (not mortgages) has loosened. When will the late payments and deftauls show up? I think its a matter of time in San Diego where housing costs are a considerable chunk of change for two income households.

For me at least, we are reaching some kind of financial plateau that will cause movement on a downward trajectory. Not a sharp trajectory but spikes that will start to make people nervous.
This isn;t just about the US anymore, we are all tangled up in it. If real estate bubbles warnings are popping up in other international cities, then there may be a credit ripple effect here.

[spdrun]

It’s happening in the US, not just abroad…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/manhattan-condos-as-an-income-bet-might-as-well-buy-treasuries

[FlyerInHi]

The luxury condo market to not profitable, unless there is price appreciation.
Better to buy cheap but well located urban condos and make them feel “luxury”.

You need in-unit washer/dryer for the luxury feel and convenience that a tenant would be willing to pay a premium.

[Anonymous]

I agree that the consumer credit data is foreboding. I did some consulting for a large investment bank last year that was moving into the the consumer debt business. They historically never touched consumer or even small business debt but decided that the market was now too big to ignore.

I really don’t know how a crash in consumer credit would play out. I think it would be different from the housing crash as there would not be as many direct job losses. During the housing bust there was an abrupt period where many people in the “FIRE” industries lost high-income jobs, which accelerated to the spiral. In a consumer debt downturn there would be job losses, but they would likely be spread across more industries: manufacturing, retail, automotive, etc.

I cannot believe current trends are sustainable, but it’s been this way far longer than I would have expected.

[FlyerInHi]

Are we going to see inflation in appliances and solar panels?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/01/24/lg-to-hike-washing-machine-prices-in-response-to-trump-imposed-tariffs/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumptariffs713pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.fb290166ea84

[gzz]

2017 year end inflation was between 1.8 and 2.1% using the big three measures CPI/Core CPI/GDP Deflator.

Tariffs need a few months to show up in higher prices. Utility scale solar tends to be made in USA and rooftop in China. China has a glut and is slashing prices already, to keep production up they may have to cover the tariff themselves. It is a lousy business to be in, high capital and r&d costs and falling prices. We should let the Chinese have it.

[ucodegen]

[quote=gzz]Utility scale solar tends to be made in USA and rooftop in China. China has a glut and is slashing prices already, to keep production up they may have to cover the tariff themselves.[/quote]
Utility scale USA PV solar is not only made in the USA, and rooftop is not only China.

Trina Solar link

Primary manufacturing countries include China, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines.

One thing that makes it hard to find where the PV panels are built is because a company located in one country will source the manufacture in another. For example; Trina Solar (China) actually manufactured the panels in Taiwan as well as China; SunPower (USA) manufactures in the Philippines and Malaysia, First Solar (USA) manufactures in Malaysia.

[quote=gzz]It is a lousy business to be in, high capital and r&d costs and falling prices. We should let the Chinese have it.[/quote]
I would keep the high efficiency panels to ourselves and slowly outsource the manufacture to other countries as we come up with higher efficiencies.

Here is a good map: https://news.energysage.com/where-solar-panels-are-manufactured/
You have to go down a bit on their page though. Most of these are residential manufacturers. First Solar is not listed because they are a low efficiency panel and really only work where space is not a premium.

Somewhere I have a document showing how reliable different manufacturers are and what the measured vs expected degradation of the panel is.

NOTE: For Utility type installations, Concentrators (ie bird friers) tend to be much more efficient. Conversion on Utility PV tends to be way below 15%, while concentrators run above 80% when mirrors are clean.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-solar-bird-deaths-20160831-snap-story.html

I wonder which percentage of those ‘streamers’ are birds. I could see the insects getting attracted to the bright light, but it might drive birds away. I do wonder if birds will start learning and start parking themselves near the base to get ‘precooked’ insect meals.

[FlyerInHi]

Fed raises rates. I feel economic headwinds.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Fed raises rates. I feel economic headwinds.[/quote]

You mean some pigs would finally not able to fly anymore?

[Author]

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