How much further will the SD market go down.

[NotCranky]

Wow. Rustico, I really value your posts, but I think you’re way off here.

Thanks woodrow. If I am way off, I think it is because I am not explaining things well. I am also pretty sure a few arguments I throw out are hopelessly wrong and should be round filed. Anyway, I am talking about targeting selective instances where value lies due to all this distress and where it can be created by lowballing sweat or some other form of enterprise. If I had more money I would be making offers but I am building another house and two garages if I can get permits. In some areas it is probably nearly zero houses that will not end up upside down or will cash flow now and in some they are trickling in or will be or could be forced by low ball offers to work. Not stuff everyone wants. But it gets better between here and the bottom. Unless we have have a meltdown.

My frame reference is 1992-1998, instincts and even a little math.
People did flip some houses successfully in this time frame or buy properties that never went upside down. Thousands bought properties that went up side down but never really faced what one would call duress. 1992 was 6 years from the bottom I bought a house that was joke to pay for and sold before the bottom for a profit. People here mostly are thinking anywhere from 2009-2013 or further and depending on the area. To 2013 is almost 6 years. Why can’t good deals happen now or soon?I am observing if and so are others on this blog(not just realtors) We already see condos and various mostly “undesirable” single family houses penciling out or getting close. That is what happened last time early on.

I am not convinced this bubble is a catastrophe and that things will be “different” this time. I am talking about making money in real estate not stepping into comfort or luxury. Not that there is anything wrong with that but it is pretty unaffordable right now apparently.I do wonder if that is where the disagreement comes from.

[ibjames]

I keep looking at the house price/rent ratio. If it gets close to rental type numbers ever, then I’ll buy, if not, I rent.

I don’t fully expect them to become even, I do have a buffer that I consider the cost of actually owning your home, that I am willing to pay so I can paint my walls and put in tile if I deem appropriate.

[ibjames]

I keep looking at the house price/rent ratio. If it gets close to rental type numbers ever, then I’ll buy, if not, I rent.

I don’t fully expect them to become even, I do have a buffer that I consider the cost of actually owning your home, that I am willing to pay so I can paint my walls and put in tile if I deem appropriate.

[ibjames]

I keep looking at the house price/rent ratio. If it gets close to rental type numbers ever, then I’ll buy, if not, I rent.

I don’t fully expect them to become even, I do have a buffer that I consider the cost of actually owning your home, that I am willing to pay so I can paint my walls and put in tile if I deem appropriate.

[ibjames]

I keep looking at the house price/rent ratio. If it gets close to rental type numbers ever, then I’ll buy, if not, I rent.

I don’t fully expect them to become even, I do have a buffer that I consider the cost of actually owning your home, that I am willing to pay so I can paint my walls and put in tile if I deem appropriate.

[ibjames]

I keep looking at the house price/rent ratio. If it gets close to rental type numbers ever, then I’ll buy, if not, I rent.

I don’t fully expect them to become even, I do have a buffer that I consider the cost of actually owning your home, that I am willing to pay so I can paint my walls and put in tile if I deem appropriate.

[alarmclock]

If you look at rich’s graphs you will see that even if you missed the last bottom by 2 whole years, the market only regained 5-8%, compared to the 33% it gave up during the collapse. That’s two full years of nearly every indicator telling you the bottom was reached, you pull the trigger, and you are only “overpaying” by 5-8%.

So even if the bearest of piggs takes 6 whole months to finally concede that the bottom has passed, you will not sacrifice more than 5%, and probably a lot less.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks that prices are going to run up like they did in 2003-2005 again. NO ONE has anymore money… seriously, it *can’t* happen again because none of the players are in a position to repeat their performance. I’m not saying that there won’t be another asset bubble–there will be. But you can bet that it won’t be housing.

[alarmclock]

If you look at rich’s graphs you will see that even if you missed the last bottom by 2 whole years, the market only regained 5-8%, compared to the 33% it gave up during the collapse. That’s two full years of nearly every indicator telling you the bottom was reached, you pull the trigger, and you are only “overpaying” by 5-8%.

So even if the bearest of piggs takes 6 whole months to finally concede that the bottom has passed, you will not sacrifice more than 5%, and probably a lot less.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks that prices are going to run up like they did in 2003-2005 again. NO ONE has anymore money… seriously, it *can’t* happen again because none of the players are in a position to repeat their performance. I’m not saying that there won’t be another asset bubble–there will be. But you can bet that it won’t be housing.

[alarmclock]

If you look at rich’s graphs you will see that even if you missed the last bottom by 2 whole years, the market only regained 5-8%, compared to the 33% it gave up during the collapse. That’s two full years of nearly every indicator telling you the bottom was reached, you pull the trigger, and you are only “overpaying” by 5-8%.

So even if the bearest of piggs takes 6 whole months to finally concede that the bottom has passed, you will not sacrifice more than 5%, and probably a lot less.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks that prices are going to run up like they did in 2003-2005 again. NO ONE has anymore money… seriously, it *can’t* happen again because none of the players are in a position to repeat their performance. I’m not saying that there won’t be another asset bubble–there will be. But you can bet that it won’t be housing.

[alarmclock]

If you look at rich’s graphs you will see that even if you missed the last bottom by 2 whole years, the market only regained 5-8%, compared to the 33% it gave up during the collapse. That’s two full years of nearly every indicator telling you the bottom was reached, you pull the trigger, and you are only “overpaying” by 5-8%.

So even if the bearest of piggs takes 6 whole months to finally concede that the bottom has passed, you will not sacrifice more than 5%, and probably a lot less.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks that prices are going to run up like they did in 2003-2005 again. NO ONE has anymore money… seriously, it *can’t* happen again because none of the players are in a position to repeat their performance. I’m not saying that there won’t be another asset bubble–there will be. But you can bet that it won’t be housing.

[alarmclock]

If you look at rich’s graphs you will see that even if you missed the last bottom by 2 whole years, the market only regained 5-8%, compared to the 33% it gave up during the collapse. That’s two full years of nearly every indicator telling you the bottom was reached, you pull the trigger, and you are only “overpaying” by 5-8%.

So even if the bearest of piggs takes 6 whole months to finally concede that the bottom has passed, you will not sacrifice more than 5%, and probably a lot less.

I don’t understand why everyone thinks that prices are going to run up like they did in 2003-2005 again. NO ONE has anymore money… seriously, it *can’t* happen again because none of the players are in a position to repeat their performance. I’m not saying that there won’t be another asset bubble–there will be. But you can bet that it won’t be housing.

[jpinpb]

ibjames – same here. Don’t expect it to equal rents, but close. If I want wood floor instead of carpet. That’s my thing. Don’t want to fix up someone’s rental. Want to fix my own place, but I will rent until the numbers make sents.

[jpinpb]

ibjames – same here. Don’t expect it to equal rents, but close. If I want wood floor instead of carpet. That’s my thing. Don’t want to fix up someone’s rental. Want to fix my own place, but I will rent until the numbers make sents.

[jpinpb]

ibjames – same here. Don’t expect it to equal rents, but close. If I want wood floor instead of carpet. That’s my thing. Don’t want to fix up someone’s rental. Want to fix my own place, but I will rent until the numbers make sents.

[jpinpb]

ibjames – same here. Don’t expect it to equal rents, but close. If I want wood floor instead of carpet. That’s my thing. Don’t want to fix up someone’s rental. Want to fix my own place, but I will rent until the numbers make sents.

[Author]

Posts