Another thing. I think that housing will track Iraq.
Whatever the percentage housing decline is, we won’t see a bottom until we’re out of iraq.
Also, there won’t be a bottom until we experience a recession. We’re now due for a recession, and I don’t believe that the Fed will, want to, or are capable, of engineering a safe landing of the general economy.
I’m not buying until:
1) recession hits (job losses will kill the new areas),
2) some Iraq resolution is worked out (so energy costs and risks are stabilized).
The fundamentals have undergone a seismic shift in the last few weeks. Median income based analysis is so ancien regime now. The controlling variable now is credit crunch, especially the Jumbo loans. Once the money for mortgage dries up, median income based analysis is largely meaningless. That $417K limit is going to come down like a ton of bricks and squish the prices.
The fundamentals have undergone a seismic shift in the last few weeks. Median income based analysis is so ancien regime now. The controlling variable now is credit crunch, especially the Jumbo loans. Once the money for mortgage dries up, median income based analysis is largely meaningless. That $417K limit is going to come down like a ton of bricks and squish the prices.
The fundamentals have undergone a seismic shift in the last few weeks. Median income based analysis is so ancien regime now. The controlling variable now is credit crunch, especially the Jumbo loans. Once the money for mortgage dries up, median income based analysis is largely meaningless. That $417K limit is going to come down like a ton of bricks and squish the prices.
Thanks again to all posters for your input. We will be deciding over the next couple months. There’s a life to build here in California, but it comes at a price.
Thanks again to all posters for your input. We will be deciding over the next couple months. There’s a life to build here in California, but it comes at a price.
Thanks again to all posters for your input. We will be deciding over the next couple months. There’s a life to build here in California, but it comes at a price.
I’m thinking purely of the income it takes to support the mortgage, not any psychological factors (behavioral factors may swing with the winds of popular opinion, but the fundamentals are the fundamentals). As long as rates stay below 8-9% (which I think they will), 100K will support a 350K house.
If rates go higher, that means we have inflation and we won’t need the same kind of nominal declines to get back to normalcy.
I’m thinking purely of the income it takes to support the mortgage, not any psychological factors (behavioral factors may swing with the winds of popular opinion, but the fundamentals are the fundamentals). As long as rates stay below 8-9% (which I think they will), 100K will support a 350K house.
If rates go higher, that means we have inflation and we won’t need the same kind of nominal declines to get back to normalcy.
