How fast will the bounce back be?

[patientlywaiting]

Actually, I think that when the market does finally hit bottom and the inventory drops to below 6 months worth of sales that the "bounce back may gather momentum very quickly. There are a lot of people who got a taste of not working for a living and who are sitting on the sidelines trying to work the REO flips and such right now. By the time this drags on, I think these people will jump back in at the first opportunity.

Bugs, i know exactly what you mean.  My take on this is how long it takes for us to reach the bottom. 

Those flippers you're talking about may not have any wherewithal left when all is said and done.  I know a couple professional flippers.  They have to keep their crew paid, fed and nourished. 

[drunkle]

demand cant consist solely of flippers… who’s going to buy from them? they can’t just sell to each other….

[drunkle]

demand cant consist solely of flippers… who’s going to buy from them? they can’t just sell to each other….

[drunkle]

demand cant consist solely of flippers… who’s going to buy from them? they can’t just sell to each other….

[drunkle]

demand cant consist solely of flippers… who’s going to buy from them? they can’t just sell to each other….

[drunkle]

demand cant consist solely of flippers… who’s going to buy from them? they can’t just sell to each other….

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

[patientlywaiting]

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

I'm expecting spring 2008 to be a big bust.  That will cement the notion that real estate is in for a protracted downturn.  Even the die-hard flippers will give up by Fall 2008.  

We have 1 more year to find out.       

 

[patientlywaiting]

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

I'm expecting spring 2008 to be a big bust.  That will cement the notion that real estate is in for a protracted downturn.  Even the die-hard flippers will give up by Fall 2008.  

We have 1 more year to find out.       

 

[patientlywaiting]

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

I'm expecting spring 2008 to be a big bust.  That will cement the notion that real estate is in for a protracted downturn.  Even the die-hard flippers will give up by Fall 2008.  

We have 1 more year to find out.       

 

[patientlywaiting]

However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.

I'm expecting spring 2008 to be a big bust.  That will cement the notion that real estate is in for a protracted downturn.  Even the die-hard flippers will give up by Fall 2008.  

We have 1 more year to find out.       

 

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