Higher End Declines?

[bobby]

Where I live the price of house have barely budged. I don’t even want to think about who’s buying these days. I guess google and yahoo money is still flowing.

[San Diego Native]

PF

IMHO the “bottom” you are looking for will vary depending on the area of San Diego in which you are looking. In my area of La Jolla, most of the homes now selling in the
$4-5MM+ range seem to be holding, and even appreciating.

In this, and other “high end” areas, like Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, etc., friends are seeing lots of foreign buyers paying cash, so employment issues and loans are not a factor.

Realize, about 80%+ of San Diego homeowners–low to high end–purchased their homes for an extremely reasonable price–prior to the “big boom” years–did not HELOC themselves to ruin–and are fat with equity.

That said, you WILL find the bargain you are looking for in the other 20% or so of homebuyers who got in way over their heads. Simply choose the area in which you want to live, and just keep making those lowball offers.

Good luck!!

[San Diego Native]

PF

IMHO the “bottom” you are looking for will vary depending on the area of San Diego in which you are looking. In my area of La Jolla, most of the homes now selling in the
$4-5MM+ range seem to be holding, and even appreciating.

In this, and other “high end” areas, like Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, etc., friends are seeing lots of foreign buyers paying cash, so employment issues and loans are not a factor.

Realize, about 80%+ of San Diego homeowners–low to high end–purchased their homes for an extremely reasonable price–prior to the “big boom” years–did not HELOC themselves to ruin–and are fat with equity.

That said, you WILL find the bargain you are looking for in the other 20% or so of homebuyers who got in way over their heads. Simply choose the area in which you want to live, and just keep making those lowball offers.

Good luck!!

[San Diego Native]

PF

IMHO the “bottom” you are looking for will vary depending on the area of San Diego in which you are looking. In my area of La Jolla, most of the homes now selling in the
$4-5MM+ range seem to be holding, and even appreciating.

In this, and other “high end” areas, like Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, etc., friends are seeing lots of foreign buyers paying cash, so employment issues and loans are not a factor.

Realize, about 80%+ of San Diego homeowners–low to high end–purchased their homes for an extremely reasonable price–prior to the “big boom” years–did not HELOC themselves to ruin–and are fat with equity.

That said, you WILL find the bargain you are looking for in the other 20% or so of homebuyers who got in way over their heads. Simply choose the area in which you want to live, and just keep making those lowball offers.

Good luck!!

[San Diego Native]

PF

IMHO the “bottom” you are looking for will vary depending on the area of San Diego in which you are looking. In my area of La Jolla, most of the homes now selling in the
$4-5MM+ range seem to be holding, and even appreciating.

In this, and other “high end” areas, like Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, etc., friends are seeing lots of foreign buyers paying cash, so employment issues and loans are not a factor.

Realize, about 80%+ of San Diego homeowners–low to high end–purchased their homes for an extremely reasonable price–prior to the “big boom” years–did not HELOC themselves to ruin–and are fat with equity.

That said, you WILL find the bargain you are looking for in the other 20% or so of homebuyers who got in way over their heads. Simply choose the area in which you want to live, and just keep making those lowball offers.

Good luck!!

[San Diego Native]

PF

IMHO the “bottom” you are looking for will vary depending on the area of San Diego in which you are looking. In my area of La Jolla, most of the homes now selling in the
$4-5MM+ range seem to be holding, and even appreciating.

In this, and other “high end” areas, like Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, etc., friends are seeing lots of foreign buyers paying cash, so employment issues and loans are not a factor.

Realize, about 80%+ of San Diego homeowners–low to high end–purchased their homes for an extremely reasonable price–prior to the “big boom” years–did not HELOC themselves to ruin–and are fat with equity.

That said, you WILL find the bargain you are looking for in the other 20% or so of homebuyers who got in way over their heads. Simply choose the area in which you want to live, and just keep making those lowball offers.

Good luck!!

[Anonymous]

Foreign buyers with cash? Very funny.

I remember listening in to an Indymac (Option arm lender) conference call in July of 2005. Some guy asked the CEO Mark Perry how long prices could be out of wack with incomes in Southern California, and he replied that his neighbor’s house — no doubt a high-end home — had just been bought by a foreign buyer, and that he saw no reason to worry.

The stock was around $50, and now its $7 or so.

Guess he should have worried.

[Anonymous]

Foreign buyers with cash? Very funny.

I remember listening in to an Indymac (Option arm lender) conference call in July of 2005. Some guy asked the CEO Mark Perry how long prices could be out of wack with incomes in Southern California, and he replied that his neighbor’s house — no doubt a high-end home — had just been bought by a foreign buyer, and that he saw no reason to worry.

The stock was around $50, and now its $7 or so.

Guess he should have worried.

[Anonymous]

Foreign buyers with cash? Very funny.

I remember listening in to an Indymac (Option arm lender) conference call in July of 2005. Some guy asked the CEO Mark Perry how long prices could be out of wack with incomes in Southern California, and he replied that his neighbor’s house — no doubt a high-end home — had just been bought by a foreign buyer, and that he saw no reason to worry.

The stock was around $50, and now its $7 or so.

Guess he should have worried.

[Anonymous]

Foreign buyers with cash? Very funny.

I remember listening in to an Indymac (Option arm lender) conference call in July of 2005. Some guy asked the CEO Mark Perry how long prices could be out of wack with incomes in Southern California, and he replied that his neighbor’s house — no doubt a high-end home — had just been bought by a foreign buyer, and that he saw no reason to worry.

The stock was around $50, and now its $7 or so.

Guess he should have worried.

[Anonymous]

Foreign buyers with cash? Very funny.

I remember listening in to an Indymac (Option arm lender) conference call in July of 2005. Some guy asked the CEO Mark Perry how long prices could be out of wack with incomes in Southern California, and he replied that his neighbor’s house — no doubt a high-end home — had just been bought by a foreign buyer, and that he saw no reason to worry.

The stock was around $50, and now its $7 or so.

Guess he should have worried.

[Deserted]

It’s difficult to know what motivates a foreign buyer. I’m not remotely involved in the real estate biz, so perhaps someone with first-hand knowledge can comment.

My guess is that wealthy foreign buyers want to buy where their wealth or their wealthy business takes them. That is unlikely to be San Diego.

Follow the link to a listing of Fortune 500 (actually 1000 are listed in this compendium):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/states/CA.html

San Diego has a grand total of 3 companies in the 500, one of which is Sempra — and that can hardly be called anything but a large local company. That puts San Diego in the esteemed company of El Segundo — also with three. But San Diego has beat out Boise, with only two.

The list is bulging with neighborhoods in LA and the Bay Area. So if San Diego sellers are holding out for the wealthy foreign money, good luck to them. The buyers will go to LA and the Bay Area because money follows money.

Perhaps sellers are waiting for the wealthy Pacific Rim foreign money to buy in San Diego to retire in comfort and beauty. In my inexpert opinion, guess again. Think of all the truly beautiful cities spread around Australia and the South Pacific and tell me if you would decide to buy in the remote overpriced San Diego market. If you wouldn’t, why do you think they would?

As an addendum I do want to thank all the Piggs whom I’ve been reading for the past two years. I thought I was crazy when the market reached crazy pricing. It turns out that you (we) were sane and the world was insane. So thank you all for bringing sanity to real estate analysis.

[Deserted]

It’s difficult to know what motivates a foreign buyer. I’m not remotely involved in the real estate biz, so perhaps someone with first-hand knowledge can comment.

My guess is that wealthy foreign buyers want to buy where their wealth or their wealthy business takes them. That is unlikely to be San Diego.

Follow the link to a listing of Fortune 500 (actually 1000 are listed in this compendium):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/states/CA.html

San Diego has a grand total of 3 companies in the 500, one of which is Sempra — and that can hardly be called anything but a large local company. That puts San Diego in the esteemed company of El Segundo — also with three. But San Diego has beat out Boise, with only two.

The list is bulging with neighborhoods in LA and the Bay Area. So if San Diego sellers are holding out for the wealthy foreign money, good luck to them. The buyers will go to LA and the Bay Area because money follows money.

Perhaps sellers are waiting for the wealthy Pacific Rim foreign money to buy in San Diego to retire in comfort and beauty. In my inexpert opinion, guess again. Think of all the truly beautiful cities spread around Australia and the South Pacific and tell me if you would decide to buy in the remote overpriced San Diego market. If you wouldn’t, why do you think they would?

As an addendum I do want to thank all the Piggs whom I’ve been reading for the past two years. I thought I was crazy when the market reached crazy pricing. It turns out that you (we) were sane and the world was insane. So thank you all for bringing sanity to real estate analysis.

[Deserted]

It’s difficult to know what motivates a foreign buyer. I’m not remotely involved in the real estate biz, so perhaps someone with first-hand knowledge can comment.

My guess is that wealthy foreign buyers want to buy where their wealth or their wealthy business takes them. That is unlikely to be San Diego.

Follow the link to a listing of Fortune 500 (actually 1000 are listed in this compendium):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/states/CA.html

San Diego has a grand total of 3 companies in the 500, one of which is Sempra — and that can hardly be called anything but a large local company. That puts San Diego in the esteemed company of El Segundo — also with three. But San Diego has beat out Boise, with only two.

The list is bulging with neighborhoods in LA and the Bay Area. So if San Diego sellers are holding out for the wealthy foreign money, good luck to them. The buyers will go to LA and the Bay Area because money follows money.

Perhaps sellers are waiting for the wealthy Pacific Rim foreign money to buy in San Diego to retire in comfort and beauty. In my inexpert opinion, guess again. Think of all the truly beautiful cities spread around Australia and the South Pacific and tell me if you would decide to buy in the remote overpriced San Diego market. If you wouldn’t, why do you think they would?

As an addendum I do want to thank all the Piggs whom I’ve been reading for the past two years. I thought I was crazy when the market reached crazy pricing. It turns out that you (we) were sane and the world was insane. So thank you all for bringing sanity to real estate analysis.

[Deserted]

It’s difficult to know what motivates a foreign buyer. I’m not remotely involved in the real estate biz, so perhaps someone with first-hand knowledge can comment.

My guess is that wealthy foreign buyers want to buy where their wealth or their wealthy business takes them. That is unlikely to be San Diego.

Follow the link to a listing of Fortune 500 (actually 1000 are listed in this compendium):

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2007/states/CA.html

San Diego has a grand total of 3 companies in the 500, one of which is Sempra — and that can hardly be called anything but a large local company. That puts San Diego in the esteemed company of El Segundo — also with three. But San Diego has beat out Boise, with only two.

The list is bulging with neighborhoods in LA and the Bay Area. So if San Diego sellers are holding out for the wealthy foreign money, good luck to them. The buyers will go to LA and the Bay Area because money follows money.

Perhaps sellers are waiting for the wealthy Pacific Rim foreign money to buy in San Diego to retire in comfort and beauty. In my inexpert opinion, guess again. Think of all the truly beautiful cities spread around Australia and the South Pacific and tell me if you would decide to buy in the remote overpriced San Diego market. If you wouldn’t, why do you think they would?

As an addendum I do want to thank all the Piggs whom I’ve been reading for the past two years. I thought I was crazy when the market reached crazy pricing. It turns out that you (we) were sane and the world was insane. So thank you all for bringing sanity to real estate analysis.

[Author]

Posts