Have some areas in San Diego county hit bottom?

[JWM in SD]

Really Bugs? Please expand on that if you have time.

[wid.steve]

I am seeing that Temecula is at a point where rents are at or near that point. Homes are sitting vacant up for rent.

Little lady I see your point. I think some markets are getting closer, but San Diego has a ways to go.

[wid.steve]

I am seeing that Temecula is at a point where rents are at or near that point. Homes are sitting vacant up for rent.

Little lady I see your point. I think some markets are getting closer, but San Diego has a ways to go.

[wid.steve]

I am seeing that Temecula is at a point where rents are at or near that point. Homes are sitting vacant up for rent.

Little lady I see your point. I think some markets are getting closer, but San Diego has a ways to go.

[wid.steve]

I am seeing that Temecula is at a point where rents are at or near that point. Homes are sitting vacant up for rent.

Little lady I see your point. I think some markets are getting closer, but San Diego has a ways to go.

[wid.steve]

I am seeing that Temecula is at a point where rents are at or near that point. Homes are sitting vacant up for rent.

Little lady I see your point. I think some markets are getting closer, but San Diego has a ways to go.

[NotCranky]

DWCAP
Sorry about the “tangent” remark I reread your post it was well thought out and fair enough.

SDR. Thanks the reminder about the glass. I had a hard time understanding why anyone would buy when I got here. Now I have a hard time understanding why so many are almost violently against it, regardless of the rationale for doing so!Not everyone of course.

[NotCranky]

DWCAP
Sorry about the “tangent” remark I reread your post it was well thought out and fair enough.

SDR. Thanks the reminder about the glass. I had a hard time understanding why anyone would buy when I got here. Now I have a hard time understanding why so many are almost violently against it, regardless of the rationale for doing so!Not everyone of course.

[NotCranky]

DWCAP
Sorry about the “tangent” remark I reread your post it was well thought out and fair enough.

SDR. Thanks the reminder about the glass. I had a hard time understanding why anyone would buy when I got here. Now I have a hard time understanding why so many are almost violently against it, regardless of the rationale for doing so!Not everyone of course.

[NotCranky]

DWCAP
Sorry about the “tangent” remark I reread your post it was well thought out and fair enough.

SDR. Thanks the reminder about the glass. I had a hard time understanding why anyone would buy when I got here. Now I have a hard time understanding why so many are almost violently against it, regardless of the rationale for doing so!Not everyone of course.

[NotCranky]

DWCAP
Sorry about the “tangent” remark I reread your post it was well thought out and fair enough.

SDR. Thanks the reminder about the glass. I had a hard time understanding why anyone would buy when I got here. Now I have a hard time understanding why so many are almost violently against it, regardless of the rationale for doing so!Not everyone of course.

[Bugs]

Rents are already soft and dropping on the apartment side, depending on where you look. Rental houses are just another substitute for rental apartments.

I’m already seeing a few apartment markets where the rents have retreated to 2004 levels after having peaked in 2005-2006. The rents are dropping because the vacancy rates have been increasing. The rental market for houses has been lagging that of the apartments, but that won’t last forever.

Downtown still has a lot of vacant condos and more are in the pipeline. Some are already turning to rentals and they’re sucking tenants from the west side of the mid-cities areas, which in turn are sucking tenants from the east side. Etc, etc.

It’s all connected. Now I don’t think that rents are subject to 30% or 40% drops but I also don’t think that 20% drops are completely out of the question. At this point I’m thinking rental decreases in the single family side of at least 10% are more likely than not.

Of course, that’s going to pull down the parity level for home prices, too, making it that much farther they’ll have to drop to compare to the rental rates.

OTOH, I could be completely wrong about all this and we might be looking at the “new paradigm”, where the old rules don’t apply. If so, we could be looking at a “soft landing” and a resulting “new normal” for the rental market. After all, San Diego is special and “everyone wants to live here”.

[Bugs]

Rents are already soft and dropping on the apartment side, depending on where you look. Rental houses are just another substitute for rental apartments.

I’m already seeing a few apartment markets where the rents have retreated to 2004 levels after having peaked in 2005-2006. The rents are dropping because the vacancy rates have been increasing. The rental market for houses has been lagging that of the apartments, but that won’t last forever.

Downtown still has a lot of vacant condos and more are in the pipeline. Some are already turning to rentals and they’re sucking tenants from the west side of the mid-cities areas, which in turn are sucking tenants from the east side. Etc, etc.

It’s all connected. Now I don’t think that rents are subject to 30% or 40% drops but I also don’t think that 20% drops are completely out of the question. At this point I’m thinking rental decreases in the single family side of at least 10% are more likely than not.

Of course, that’s going to pull down the parity level for home prices, too, making it that much farther they’ll have to drop to compare to the rental rates.

OTOH, I could be completely wrong about all this and we might be looking at the “new paradigm”, where the old rules don’t apply. If so, we could be looking at a “soft landing” and a resulting “new normal” for the rental market. After all, San Diego is special and “everyone wants to live here”.

[Bugs]

Rents are already soft and dropping on the apartment side, depending on where you look. Rental houses are just another substitute for rental apartments.

I’m already seeing a few apartment markets where the rents have retreated to 2004 levels after having peaked in 2005-2006. The rents are dropping because the vacancy rates have been increasing. The rental market for houses has been lagging that of the apartments, but that won’t last forever.

Downtown still has a lot of vacant condos and more are in the pipeline. Some are already turning to rentals and they’re sucking tenants from the west side of the mid-cities areas, which in turn are sucking tenants from the east side. Etc, etc.

It’s all connected. Now I don’t think that rents are subject to 30% or 40% drops but I also don’t think that 20% drops are completely out of the question. At this point I’m thinking rental decreases in the single family side of at least 10% are more likely than not.

Of course, that’s going to pull down the parity level for home prices, too, making it that much farther they’ll have to drop to compare to the rental rates.

OTOH, I could be completely wrong about all this and we might be looking at the “new paradigm”, where the old rules don’t apply. If so, we could be looking at a “soft landing” and a resulting “new normal” for the rental market. After all, San Diego is special and “everyone wants to live here”.

[Bugs]

Rents are already soft and dropping on the apartment side, depending on where you look. Rental houses are just another substitute for rental apartments.

I’m already seeing a few apartment markets where the rents have retreated to 2004 levels after having peaked in 2005-2006. The rents are dropping because the vacancy rates have been increasing. The rental market for houses has been lagging that of the apartments, but that won’t last forever.

Downtown still has a lot of vacant condos and more are in the pipeline. Some are already turning to rentals and they’re sucking tenants from the west side of the mid-cities areas, which in turn are sucking tenants from the east side. Etc, etc.

It’s all connected. Now I don’t think that rents are subject to 30% or 40% drops but I also don’t think that 20% drops are completely out of the question. At this point I’m thinking rental decreases in the single family side of at least 10% are more likely than not.

Of course, that’s going to pull down the parity level for home prices, too, making it that much farther they’ll have to drop to compare to the rental rates.

OTOH, I could be completely wrong about all this and we might be looking at the “new paradigm”, where the old rules don’t apply. If so, we could be looking at a “soft landing” and a resulting “new normal” for the rental market. After all, San Diego is special and “everyone wants to live here”.

[Author]

Posts