November 19, 2006 at 7:07 PM #7942powaysellerParticipant
I asked my pro-Bush “the US economy can never fail” friend what he thought of Roubini’s and Spiegel’s recent stories. Here is his response. Any comments?
“I can’t take Roubini. All he does is predict doom and gloom. Seems like he’s made a living out of it. The other article is interesting. He starts off by saying what a power house the dollar and the U.S. economy is then he gets into his “what if the sky falls” scenerio. Its B.S. Ever since WWII people have been predicting the U.S. will colapse. The worst time of all was during the Carter Adiministration (a Democrat). It took a Republican (Reagan) to straighten things out. If our economy didn’t crash with 16% inflation and 10% unemploment from 1977 to 1982 nothing will make it colapse. Since WWII all the doom and gloomers have been wrong.
We’ve had housing bubbles burst before. In 1988 my house was appraised at $300K. In 1992 it was appraised at $180K. A lot of morons who bought then in 1988 at inflated prices with teaser rates lost their shirts but it recovered as it always has done and gotten stronger. We have very smart economist running this economy. They’ve always done well. You have to have faith in the U.S economy. There are fools out there who don’t use their heads and end up taking a bath.
Here is some math for you.
In 1992 the GDP was $7.5T and the national debt was $5T.
In 2006 the GDP is nearly $14T and the national debt is $8T.
Which debt is a bigger % of GDP? Are things getting better or worse?
In 1993 the federal budget was $1.6T and the deficit was $292B
In 2006 the federal budget was $2.5T and the deficit was $247B
Which deficeit is a bigger % of federal budget? Are things getting better or worse?
BTW, we were not fighting a war in 1993. Wars always cost a lot of money. I suspect if we were not fighting a war we wouldn’t have a deficit at all.
Things are getting better. We have the strongest economy in the world, strongest currency. In every country, even our enemies want to deal in $ rather than Euro, Yen, yuan or their own. I’ll bet Bin Laden buys bombs with $.
We are the strongest (economically, militarily and politically), we are the best, we are the United States of America and I went to war to defend her 40 years ago. You don’t see people busting ass to get into Iran, Japan, India, China, Mexico. The whole world is trying to get here. I just hope they don’t bring their screwed up ways here and mess this up. We have a good thing going here in the U.S. Baseball, football, apple pie, the rule of law and the consitution. God has always Blessed America!
RS”November 19, 2006 at 8:05 PM #40322BikeRiderParticipant
Let me have some of what you’re drinking! There are already too many come-heres to our country. I love our country, but I fear we’re off course. I think a lot of Americans have gotten fat and lazy. Just because something has been a certain way in the past, doesn’t mean it will stay that way. The one thing that I found in life that is constant is that things always change. And not always for the best. I do hope you are right, but I fear you drank the cool-aide.November 19, 2006 at 8:59 PM #40325mydogsarelazyParticipant
America is a great nation in decline. We are Rome in the Third Century AD.
That doesn’t mean that great leaders and new ideas can’t emerge to stem the tide, but Imperial America is a very flawed nation. The part that concerns me the most is that our flaws tend to be what we export.
There is no doubt in my mind that Bush is the worst president of my 49 year lifetime. Nixon was a cynical, paranoid cheater but he was visionary compared to George W.
JSNovember 19, 2006 at 9:30 PM #40326DanielParticipant
Your friend is exaggerating quite a bit the positives, but I’d say that I mostly share his optimistic views. Not particularly about the US, but about the world in general, of which US is a great part. The world is becoming more and more integrated, technologically advanced, democratic and peaceful. With all due respect for terrorist victims and fallen soldiers, 9/11 and Iraq are just tiny events, not even on the same scale with the horrendous wars of the past. You have to step back a bit to see the big picture, and the big picture of the world looks better than ever. And I believe it will only get better in the years ahead.November 20, 2006 at 11:56 AM #40361PerryChaseParticipant
I agree with Roubini. I think that the USA will have a recession that lasts at least 2 quarters. However, it’ll be far from a gloom and doom scenario. We’ll move on.
Daniel is right, the world is a better place than it used to be. It’s a great time to be a citizen of the world (unless you are Arab or Muslim — at least for now).November 21, 2006 at 6:25 AM #40405carlislematthewParticipant
I think that the USA will have a recession that lasts at least 2 quarters.
Of course, a recession is defined as having a length of at least two quarters. I am also 100% positive a recession is coming. It will occur some time within the next 50 years, and there may be multiple.
There, I’ve let my predictions out of the bag. Please, profit from my wisdom, and send me checks. 🙂November 21, 2006 at 10:12 AM #40420sdcellarParticipant
Brilliant! Please tell me where to sign up for your newsletter. This is the kind of stuff I can really take action on.
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