Foreclosure ban end.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]I think everyone can make 5 to 10 perc guaranteed easily.

Just stock up on household supplies. Spend 10 k at Costco, same stuff will be 11k in 2022.

Just make sure you use your garbage bags and toothpaste sparingly to maintain savings.

Problem is storage costs and holding costs. Do I really want to buy 2025s toilet paper this weekend? My return is lower if I have to wait 6 years to use that floss.

This also runs counter to my other investment strategy, the highest yielding trick ever…don’t spend money. I had an available bowl that was 10.29! Seemed high to me.[/quote]

Actually, easier than that. Just buy lots of Sees candies gift certificates. I have some from circa 1990ies i bought for like $5 for 2lbs of chocolate. I think 2lbs of sees candies nuts and chew chocolates are now around $45 now.[/quote]

Actually bourbon was the answer. Five years ago i loaded up on hard to find, allocated bourbons that are now impossible to find. The best bottle I bought for $300 is now over $5000. In four years I will likely sell it to pay for enough to pay my daughters final year of tuition at UCSD. One bottle of bourbon!

[The-Shoveler]

Biden: Jobs report shows “Long way to go”

IMO expect even more Stimulus sugar high ahead LOL

[The-Shoveler]

Duplicate

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=Reality][quote=temeculaguy]I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future. The invisible hand has been stymied and nothing good ever comes from that, unless inflation counteracts it. Anecdotal case in point, my son and his wife have lived with me rent free through the pandemic and have a six figure down payment. Yes they are mid to late 20 somethings with degrees and a low six figure combined income and they cannot buy a starter home in Temecula. The last time this happened it was 2006 and we all know how that turned out. Haircuts are coming, the two freshly minted teachers rule is back in play, when two freshly minted teachers cannot buy a condo the bubble bursts, exhurbs get it first and gt it the worst, I smell Deja Vu! I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls, already got a fake lawn so I’m staying put but I’ll pick up a rental or two in the next crash, your results may vary. But thee current valuations are not sustainable.

The house I paid 270 for at the bottom in 2008 is worth 700-800, you have got to be kidding me, 500 maybe.[/quote]

Thank you for countering what has become largely a cheerleader blog. I don’t have the energy anymore but liked reading your post.[/quote]

Yes Reality. being a permabull is exhausting.

I disagree vehemently. I do not see cheerleaders, I see pragmatists. People who are willing and able to watch what is going on and exploit it. I think most of us would be happy to see a big decline as we are long term investors and committed to the area. Personally i dislike when prices get high and could care less what my house is worth. I have no plans to ever sell and hope it becomes a generational income producing asset for my family or home for my heirs. I like when prices dip and our neighborhood gets rejuvenated with more young families. The sound of kids playing on the tree swing a few houses away brings me great joy and I hope for more of that.

But here’s the worst part. When and if that correction comes, you permabears that have sat on the sidelines will be competing with us pragmistists that have been enjoying massive gains the last 10 years and have been converting them to long term income generating assests like dividend stocks and bread n butter rentals around town.

I glad you enjoyed reading TG’s posts but what you expect to get out of that is likely fantasy. I see why you are exhausted. Temecula is calling your name[/quote]

What a douchebag response, what I would expect from someone with realtor in their name. I would be curious what your predictions were in 2006/7.
But in reality the current state of affairs is a national disaster. Nobody in the younger generation has any chance of owning a home unless they inherit one from their parents. That is sad. Nobody in government or mainstream media talks about it. Instead RE industry folks or older entrenched homeowners just sit happily watching their home values go up through no work or effort of their own. Just lucky to be riding the coattails of the Federal Reserve. Then the have the nerve to look down at others for not being as smart as them.

[sdrealtor]

My predictions here in 06/07 are well documented. You are free to search this site and find them. I suspect you are lazy so I’ll give you the cliff notes version. Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were. Feel free to confirm

And I’ve helped lots of first time buyers the last few years who bought homes when people like you were saying the same things. Not everyone has to live in SD either. Places and paradigms change. That’s one of my big predictions made back in 06 which is the north county coast would become a very different high end place over the next two decades even more so than it had already over the prior one

It is a disaster in your myopic small world view. The rest of us will pay attention, pick our shots and continue winning.

And it had nothing to do with being smarter. I’m a dumbass. It has to do with being willing to look at things objectively and not talk oneself out of things that make sense in a current environment

[scaredyclassic]

my general problem over my lifetime is confusing what should be with what is.

in spite of that, I’ve actually done remarkably well, all things considered. I attribute this to being married to a normal woman who makes decisions based on reasonable information and not overthinking things.

basically, I agonize over choices, and do whatever she says, unless it seems utterly insane, which hasn’t happened yet.

which is not to say I do everything she says. I dress how I like. I also recently started wearing a phone/wallet holster, over her objection.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]I suspect you are lazy so I’ll give you the cliff notes version. Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were. Feel free to confirm
[/quote]

Nice, another douchebag response. Go ahead and keep patting yourself on the back and keep cheerleading real estate prices to the moon. The fact that you don’t realize or care that the majority of young people have no chance of ever being homeowners is not important to you, as long as you are doing well. Great for you.

If you want to hang your hat on predicting that NC would become high end, or OC south, fine but that wasn’t going out on a limb. But you absolutely didn’t predict the 2008 crash as so many on this site warned about. Now you also predict there will not be another crash. Perhaps not, but your track record on predicting market crashes is not good.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]I suspect you are lazy so I’ll give you the cliff notes version. Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were. Feel free to confirm
[/quote]

Nice, another douchebag response. Go ahead and keep patting yourself on the back and keep cheerleading real estate prices to the moon. The fact that you don’t realize or care that the majority of young people have no chance of ever being homeowners is not important to you, as long as you are doing well. Great for you.

If you want to hang your had on predicting that NC would become high end, or OC south, fine but that wasn’t going out on a limb. But you absolutely didn’t predict the 2008 crash as so many on this site warned about. Now you also predict there will not be another crash. Perhaps not, but your track record on predicting market crashes is not good.[/quote]

young people should be able to afford homes.

(though probably not in the neighborhood everyone wants)

wealth should be more equitably distributed.

(however, poor people historically have a hard time holding on to money)

America should be less filled with assholes.

(but it’s hard to change the national character…)

etc. of what use are such statements, except at occupy wall street rallies? (however, they may not have any use even there–too tepid…(so sad that David Graeber, OWS founder, recently died at 59; I loved his history book “Debt: the first 5,000 years” (although to be honest, I didn’t read the whole tome, just around 200 pps, skimmed the rest, though I did read his book on bureacracy in whole, which I liked even more; kinda wonder what his estate looked like)). he had just hit the mainstream with BULLSHIT JOBS….I bet he was financially on the upswing.

i do regret not going to nyc to occupy wall street with him.

I was unfortunately busy working my ass off back in 09. Protest wasn’t on my radar. Kids, 401ks, drinking too much, trying not to get divorced, work work work. Shopping for a damned short sale or foreclosure..

59 .just 1 year older than me. Acute pancreatitis, his obit say. Im going to the doc if my pancreas hurts…15 months without a drink for me….

[svelte]

[quote=an][quote=svelte][quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]

The stock market crashed in the 70s.[/quote]
But not housing. Like I said, not everything crashes. Housing went up almost 10x.[/quote]

That is an absurd claim. I was going to spend time this weekend researching it and show you, but I just figured out I already have two data points that demonstrate how outlandish it is.

I’ve stated previously that my father purchased a 3/2 1500 SF house in the central valley for $21K in 1970.

When I arrived in San Diego in 1987, a single family 3/2 1500 SF house – brand new – was selling for $100K-105K in Mira Mesa. I distinctly remember taking my dad over to show him those ridiculous prices.

San Diego, including Mira Mesa, has always been more expensive that the central valley.

If my dad’s 1970 house had went up 10x in the 1970s, it should have been worth $210K in 1980. It most definitely was not, and the fact that anyone could walk into a new development in Mira Mesa in 1987 and buy a brand new 3/2 1500 SF for $100K demonstrates that even at 17 years, prices hadn’t even went up 5x yet.

Totally bogus claim.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=svelte][quote=an][quote=svelte][quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]

The stock market crashed in the 70s.[/quote]
But not housing. Like I said, not everything crashes. Housing went up almost 10x.[/quote]

That is an absurd claim. I was going to spend time this weekend researching it and show you, but I just figured out I already have two data points that demonstrate how outlandish it is.

I’ve stated previously that my father purchased a 3/2 1500 SF house in the central valley for $21K in 1970.

When I arrived in San Diego in 1987, a single family 3/2 1500 SF house – brand new – was selling for $100K-105K in Mira Mesa. I distinctly remember taking my dad over to show him those ridiculous prices.

San Diego, including Mira Mesa, has always been more expensive that the central valley.

If my dad’s 1970 house had went up 10x in the 1970s, it should have been worth $210K in 1980. It most definitely was not, and the fact that anyone could walk into a new development in Mira Mesa in 1987 and buy a brand new 3/2 1500 SF for $100K demonstrates that even at 17 years, prices hadn’t even went up 5x yet.

Totally bogus claim.[/quote]

Where I was raised early in Brooklyn, brownstones were about 5k. Now, about 5 million. Actually, more…

[The-Shoveler]

hmmm don’t have exact figures but it seems to me home prices in LA went up about 4x from 1970 to 1980.

I remember my father bragging about paying off the ~1971 30 year mortgage with the Christmas bonus about 1980 or so.

Then it seems they went up about 2x between 1980 ad 1988 most of that was inflation IMO. Then 90’s defense crash in LA and 94 quake I think prices were about 40% lower in 1995 or so (from 1988).
Home prices were basically flat from 1996 – 1999 Late 1999 prices started to sky rocket with the internet bubble.
After the Stock Market crash of 2000 no one wanted anything to do with stocks LOL so they put it all in RE.

[svelte]

[quote=The-Shoveler]hmmm don’t have exact figures but it seems to me home prices in LA went up about 4x from 1970 to 1980.

I remember my father bragging about paying off the ~1971 30 year mortgage with the Christmas bonus about 1980 or so.

Then it seems they went up about 2x between 1980 ad 1988 most of that was inflation IMO. Then 90’s defense crash in LA and 94 quake I think prices were about 40% lower in 1995 or so (from 1988).
Home prices were basically flat from 1996 – 1999 Late 1999 prices started to sky rocket with the internet bubble.
After the Stock Market crash of 2000 no one wanted anything to do with stocks LOL so they put it all in RE.[/quote]

I’m trying to remember what my dad paid in 1978…he bought a similar 3/2 1500SF house about 5 miles away in a much better neighborhood with a bigger yard. I think he paid about $50K plus or minus five…in 1970 he had paid $21K so housing prices had roughly doubled in the central valley in 8 years. Two years later he sold and bought again, this time a 3/2 2000SF house and I think he paid $70-75K. Can’t remember the exact amount but he told these stories so many times I can remember the ballpark. That price indicates to me prices were still increasing a bit, but since it is apples to oranges I can’t say exactly how much.

Yes if you cherry pick an area such as NYC I am sure you can point to some examples of astounding price increases!

[The-Shoveler]

LOL one more funny thing I remember was sometime in late 1970’s (I think 1978), my friends dad (same guy I visited last week) predicted inflation was going to be so bad, that we would be paying 1 million+ for our houses (well he was a bit too early on that call but still close LOL, his house still the same house he lived in then would probably sell for about 1 million today).

🙂

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]I suspect you are lazy so I’ll give you the cliff notes version. Spot one! No one on this site came close to how accurate mine were. Feel free to confirm
[/quote]

Nice, another douchebag response. Go ahead and keep patting yourself on the back and keep cheerleading real estate prices to the moon. The fact that you don’t realize or care that the majority of young people have no chance of ever being homeowners is not important to you, as long as you are doing well. Great for you.

If you want to hang your hat on predicting that NC would become high end, or OC south, fine but that wasn’t going out on a limb. But you absolutely didn’t predict the 2008 crash as so many on this site warned about. Now you also predict there will not be another crash. Perhaps not, but your track record on predicting market crashes is not good.[/quote]

You are so wrong it’s laughable. Not only did I predict it but I placed bets on how it would play out. That I won and I can link to on this website. I predicted 30% worst case scenario and likely less along the NCC. The actual bottom was just short of 25% here.

In 2004 I told everyone that would listen we were in for severe pain over the next decade but long term beyond that I was a raging bull. In early 2008 I left a major brokerage and set up a small boutique firm with an attorney. We predicted it would be short sales not foreclosures that would solve this. I personally did over 150 short sales the first of which closed in mid 2008. The “short sale experts” that came next and were all over TV/radio were calling us daily to learn how and what we were doing.

You know what’s funny. You had the opportunity of a lifetime. The crash we went through was so obvious to us here. Just the same in 2011 I proclaimed the worst was over on this site. It’s all here and I’ve not said one word I can’t document. But you Mr Permabear being here all along failed to shoot fish in a bucket like so many of us did but somehow think you’ll get yours next time. You can call me all the names you want and make all the accusations you want and I can prove you wrong. You’ve got no one to blame but yourself

[sdrealtor]

Here you go. My very first post on this site

https://www.piggington.com/4_reasons_san_diego_re_has_gone_up

Spoiler-prices returned to mid 2003 prices around me as I predicted

Shambling Towards Affordability

Prices crept down and never came down hard and fast as I predicted

Shambling Towards Affordability

The infamous CAR bet, the first one I won.

A Lost Decade-Plus for San Diego Home Prices

Pronouncing in feb 2012 the declines are over. Also references my numerous warnings that when we are at bottom it will be very difficult to find a primary you love as competition will be highest.

I’ll add some more once I have time but I could do this all day

[Author]

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