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October 18, 2013 at 9:02 AM #767033October 18, 2013 at 9:10 AM #767034bearishgurlParticipant
[quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl][quote=no_such_reality]The world fundamentally needs to change. Automation is, and will continue, to largely make 90% of the population irrelevant from a labor standpoint.
The vast majority of the population, not only don’t have the education, they don’t have the family dynamic, they don’t have nutrition, they don’t have the raw life enrichment experiences necessary to develop the raw mental horsepower needed to be part of the creative class.
The question is how will we get over the hump before we rip ourselves apart.[/quote]
The emphasized portion of this statement is a very “elitest” attitude, IMO. Regardless of a job applicant’s educational level, only a very small portion of jobs available in the US are “creative.”
[/quote] BG, you’re missing the point. The point I made, that you then reiterated is that few, of the total, jobs are creative. Creative as in make something, create, not assemble. In LAUSD, a 1/3rd of the students don’t graduate. That’s not elitist attitude on my part, that’s a fact from LAUSD. Even farming is becoming ‘creative’.
Will we always need farmers? Yes, but as we’ve discussed in a previous thread, the machines on the farm now make it so that a family of four can do the work of 100 from as little as 40 years ago. That’s my point, we need 4 now, no longer a 100. That’s the dynamic I’m worried about. It also requires a lot of a knowledge. And the raw horsepower is that willpower you mention to do it, everyday. Research and find answers, to build the marketing network to sell their product.
It’s also not elitist to recognize that it isn’t just genetics or the child’s stick-to-it-ness. It’s family support, teacher support, it’s having parents that provide a lifestyle that provides safety and experiences to grow from. Can a completely average kid from the ghetto make it? Sure, but let’s be honest, it’s rare, not because there anything inherently wrong with the kid, but because his environment (on average) has stacked a much higher and steeper mountain to get there.
The mental horsepower, or to borrow a phrase from some guys from Harvard and Yale, cognitive load carrying capacity, is large. Environment, training, experience and safety net determine how quickly stressers burn up your cognitive load. There’s a very recent interesting study about cognitive load and how it doesn’t really matter if you’re rich or poor, if you’re given stressors, like financial difficulties, that take up your cognitive load, you start to make bad decisions, rich or poor, you make the characteristic decisions that lead to being poorer.[/quote]
nsr, that all depends on what you define as “family support, teacher support” and “having parents that provide a lifestyle that provides safety and experiences to grow from” and where you are defining “the ghetto” to be.
I have a sneaking suspicion that I see the former to be a much broader array of “support people” for kids (who may or may not be related to them) and I see a broader array of successful “family compositions” in America than you do. And in the latter, I likely feel there is a broader range of suitable areas to raise a family in than you do.
After all, wasn’t Barack Obama raised by a grandparent?
Ivy league academics aside (who likely have never been employed in the “real world” themselves), I really believe it is all up to each individual kid how much drive they have to succeed. It is not uncommon for three siblings, all who grew up in the same home with the same parents have vastly different levels of “life success” from each other.
October 18, 2013 at 9:18 AM #767036NotCrankyParticipantdel
October 18, 2013 at 9:19 AM #767035NotCrankyParticipantIt cracks me up how the moderate haves think that they are experts at delayed gratification and pulling themselves up by the bootstraps and that people who start at the bottom in wealth, education, family constitution, environment, and social status are just not exercising their choices properly. I know everybody battles through losses in life , but some people have nothing to lose, ever…pretty much no tools. We are not good at allocating these tools or don’t seriously care to.
I look at my fairly well to do neighbors, very decent people, but with a few exceptions, I don’t see how they did anything they weren’t fairly groomed for and they certainly don’t seem to do delayed gratification. Lots of people treating themselves like spoiled children from all walks of life. What would happen if their choices crashed to almost nothing?
October 18, 2013 at 9:23 AM #767037CDMA ENGParticipantI think everyone here, with a rare few, understands the problem.
As the reduction of labor, and by extension people, continues due to automation, and other such things, it makes me wonder what will be the drivers for population reduction.
And reduction is the key issue here for a greater disturbution of wealth, education, and social well-being…
SDDuuuude once showed me a study showing that most likely it would be the price of resources.
China is trying to be proactive with a “One Child Policy”.
MISH thinks it will be war…
One could argue that it would probably be a combination of the first and the third but either way the demand for physical… and intellectual labor (though disportantionly physical) is disappearing and unless something is address proactively then the third option is mostly likely…
Fortunately we, as a country, are very good at the third… that does not mean I condone it.
CE
October 18, 2013 at 9:43 AM #767039NotCrankyParticipantEven wars don’t need the underclass anymore, not to the extent of any past wars. That would have to be history’s most cynical war..to get rid of people. How does that compare to food stamp riots?
October 18, 2013 at 9:56 AM #767040bearishgurlParticipant[quote=CDMA ENG]I think everyone here, with a rare few, understands the problem.
As the reduction of labor, and by extension people, continues due to automation, and other such things, it makes me wonder what will be the drivers for population reduction.
And reduction is the key issue here for a greater disturbution of wealth, education, and social well-being…
SDDuuuude once showed me a study showing that most likely it would be the price of resources.
China is trying to be proactive with a “One Child Policy”.
MISH thinks it will be war…
One could argue that it would probably be a combination of the first and the third but either way the demand for physical… and intellectual labor (though disportantionly physical) is disappearing and unless something is address proactively then the third option is mostly likely…
Fortunately we, as a country, are very good at the third… that does not mean I condone it.
CE[/quote]
Are the rest of the US all of a sudden going to stop needing the food and gas and oil that the country’s midsection produces … all with PHYSICAL LABOR jobs??
What about gradually? I don’t think it will be uncommon that new gas-powered vehicles will still be running 30 years from now. And they are STILL being manufactured today. And will the rest of the country’s residents have no need for the meat, dairy, grain and produce (grown in flyover America) in the coming decades?
I understand automation is used successfully in factories but humans are still needed to supervise it. Gen X/Y have been leaving family farms to attend college elsewhere for decades … and perhaps never returning. How will this change?
Sorry, but I just don’t see Americans surviving on MREs and seaweed briquettes in any of our lifetimes. I see Gen Y getting living-wage jobs, partly due to massive boomer retirements from here on out. That is, those Gen Y who are serious about majoring in an employable field and willing to relocate, if necessary.
Am I missing something??
October 18, 2013 at 10:04 AM #767041SK in CVParticipant[quote=bearishgurl]
Am I missing something??[/quote]Not sure if you’re missing something or not. The shift will be gradual. The tipping point will be sudden. The turmoil in the middle east is a perfect example. Life has been crappy in Egypt for 50 years. But the trend over that 50 years has been crappier and crappier as there have been fewer jobs, more hungry people and an economy generally trending downwards. And then the suffering hit critical mass. It was the same story in Libya and in Syria. (I’m not dismissing outside influence, and this isn’t meant to be derail the discussion towards ME politics, it’s just an example.) We have already seen the same trend in the US. It is what the occupy movement was all about, it just failed to hit critical mass. Without substantial change in trajectory, eventually it will.
October 18, 2013 at 10:18 AM #767042no_such_realityParticipantFrom US EPA
[quote]In 1935, the number of farms in the United States peaked at 6.8 million as the population edged over 127 million citizens. As the number of farmers has declined, the demand for agricultural products has increased. This increased demand has been met (and exceeded) with the aid of large-scale mechanization (the use of large, productive pieces of farm equipment), improved crop varieties, commercial fertilizers, and pesticides. The need for human labor has also declined as evidenced by the increase in agricultural labor efficiency over the past century – from 27.5 acres/worker in 1890 to 740 acres/worker in 1990 (Illinois data; Hunt, 2001).[/quote]Do you understand what that says? We need 1 for every 27 we used to need. That growth continues.
What are the other 26 that used to farm going to do?
It’s the same in many occupations, yes, including Doctors, machines now read x-rays, tests and MRIs.
Police? Even the number of police per citizen is decreasing due to technology advances.
While we may need 1000 more police officers in San Diego, the population in San Diego has increased by 700,000. And in near future, before we add another 1000 officers, it’ll increase by another 1,000,000.
October 18, 2013 at 10:26 AM #767043allParticipant[quote=Blogstar]del[/quote]
You are missing CTRL+ALT.
October 18, 2013 at 10:37 AM #767044bearishgurlParticipantI think the fear of the American poor rioting (and threatening the “haves”) is being trumped up just a bit here.
I fundamentally believe that most of those EBT/SNAP patrons of the cleaned-out Louisiana Walmart WOULD take a decent FT job if offered to them.
This little experiment was borne out of massive numbers of Hurricane Katrina victims successfully resettled in the Houston, TX area, and also in the states of NE and MN (both completely antithetical to their culture). All except the senior citizens went on to complete their job training or educations and/or take FT or PT jobs to support their families.
There wasn’t much difference, if any, in the “family dynamics” of those hurricane victims and today’s LA residents standing in line to “overcharge” their EBT cards at Walmart.
The state of LA has never had nearly enough jobs of any kind to offer their resident citizenry. Much of the state is not even buildable due its high water table and swampland. The LA residents who never left after Katrina stayed for two reasons:
1) They had a home on higher ground or a relative’s home on higher ground to move into; or
2) their damaged homes were still habitable AND they were able to get enough in insurance proceeds to repair their homes and move back in.
Even though Shreveport (where the recent EBT “shopping spree” took place) is a different area than New Orleans, the culture is the same. I’m speaking here of food, family customs and religion. It is very hard for longtime residents to just pick up and leave, especially senior citizens. This particular culture is present only in the state of LA and cannot be duplicated anywhere else.
If it’s any consolation, the mammoth Walmart corporation got stuck with the tab because they did not adhere to LA Dept of Children and Family Services rules:
Two Walmart stores in Louisiana will have to foot the bill for unauthorized purchases made by food stamp recipients who went on a wild shopping spree after a glitch in the Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) system gave them unlimited spending power for two hours, according to state officials.
In an ABC News report, Trey Williams, a spokesman for the Louisiana Department of Children and Family Services, said retailers who chose not to adhere to emergency procedures limiting sales up-to $50 per cardholder during an emergency would be responsible for any additional amount spent over eligible benefit balances…
And Mississippi, where the “riots” happened due to EBT glitches, is the poorest state in the nation. Again due to the dearth of good jobs available there for its residents. If you take a lot of those residents, put them in a u-haul and relocate them, you might be surprised to see that a lot of them are gainfully employed within months.
October 18, 2013 at 10:42 AM #767045no_such_realityParticipantDidn’t you just describe family dynamic, environment and support?
October 18, 2013 at 10:47 AM #767046SD RealtorParticipantnsr stop slamming your head against the wall and the headache will go away.
October 18, 2013 at 10:58 AM #767047bearishgurlParticipant[quote=no_such_reality]Didn’t you just describe family dynamic, environment and support?[/quote]
If that includes good, geographically-available jobs, yes.
October 18, 2013 at 11:00 AM #767048bearishgurlParticipant[quote=SD Realtor]nsr stop slamming your head against the wall and the headache will go away.[/quote]
SDR, sorry to hear you now have a headache but you still haven’t told us if you would prefer your late-paying out-of-state tenant apply for and collect all the aid she is qualified for so she can pay your rent in a more timely manner :=]
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