First 20 days of April

[SD Realtor]

My conclusions are…..drum roll… that it is to early to tell….sorry but I guess they are not so interesting. What I do think is kind of neat though is the spectrum of different behavior through the region.

I think that some of the higher end neighborhoods are mimics of what other neighborhoods did in 2005-2006. That is, nothing reaches a peak then goes down… Places hit a peak and then they kind of sit there… prices stay relatively constant but volume drops… look at 92037 for instance from the stats above… average price is up a little but volume is off… even 92130, same thing. So the more desireable areas that may not exhibit large price drops are showing the volume transition which is the first chink in the armor so to speak.

As far as places like Mira Mesa and Eastlake, I put them in here just to display the dichotomy of regionalized activity. Yes I know everyone here already knows this but it is neat to see in action. As can be seen these regions are farther along as noted by the volume. Price points are hit that do indeed trigger that 6 letter word that Piggs hate… DEMAND… It is to early to call a bottom on areas like these because we do not know the supply chain for these locations. While the NOD rate has not gone up for the past few months it has remained constant and at a VERY HIGH level. Similarly we still may see ALOT of supply come to these same regions over the next two years. Similarly we have not had any secondary phenomenah such as interest rate spikes and/or serious employment issues.

I do believe we have exhausted some of the downward risk in some of these areas. As we have seen posted, in some of these areas we are getting close and even meeting a break even point for investment properties. I would warn people again, don’t project that nobody can afford 20% down for a home. The fact is many people cannot, but out of the population base here in San Diego, many others can.

Remember, just stick to the facts and statistics, don’t speculate as to what other people may or may not have.

SD Realtor

[an]

Thanks for putting 92126 in here for me and other people interested in 92126 area SD R. Greatly appreciated. At least for me and 92126, it seems like it’s doing what it did last year, which is not a good thing. I though demand really picked up but it seems like the closing is no better than last year. It will be a very interesting winter this year. 18+% drop in one year is definitely no slouch.

[an]

Thanks for putting 92126 in here for me and other people interested in 92126 area SD R. Greatly appreciated. At least for me and 92126, it seems like it’s doing what it did last year, which is not a good thing. I though demand really picked up but it seems like the closing is no better than last year. It will be a very interesting winter this year. 18+% drop in one year is definitely no slouch.

[an]

Thanks for putting 92126 in here for me and other people interested in 92126 area SD R. Greatly appreciated. At least for me and 92126, it seems like it’s doing what it did last year, which is not a good thing. I though demand really picked up but it seems like the closing is no better than last year. It will be a very interesting winter this year. 18+% drop in one year is definitely no slouch.

[an]

Thanks for putting 92126 in here for me and other people interested in 92126 area SD R. Greatly appreciated. At least for me and 92126, it seems like it’s doing what it did last year, which is not a good thing. I though demand really picked up but it seems like the closing is no better than last year. It will be a very interesting winter this year. 18+% drop in one year is definitely no slouch.

[an]

Thanks for putting 92126 in here for me and other people interested in 92126 area SD R. Greatly appreciated. At least for me and 92126, it seems like it’s doing what it did last year, which is not a good thing. I though demand really picked up but it seems like the closing is no better than last year. It will be a very interesting winter this year. 18+% drop in one year is definitely no slouch.

[SD Realtor]

I agree with you… I think your analysis is objective.

The bounce that we have have seen has indeed been robust in comparison to the past several months of activity. Taken in context to yoy numbers it is heartening to see. I also think that there is a psychological different though right? I know last year I sold a listing in Summerset and the year before that a listing on Goleta. Both those homes took awhile to sell. This year as you well know AN the majority of the MM sales that we have seen have been like a feeding frenzy due to aggressive pricing. This of course explains the 18% drop.

So yeah what we need is alot more of these to exhaust the supply of these buyers out there AND/OR resellers who are non distressed to start pricing more aggressively.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with you… I think your analysis is objective.

The bounce that we have have seen has indeed been robust in comparison to the past several months of activity. Taken in context to yoy numbers it is heartening to see. I also think that there is a psychological different though right? I know last year I sold a listing in Summerset and the year before that a listing on Goleta. Both those homes took awhile to sell. This year as you well know AN the majority of the MM sales that we have seen have been like a feeding frenzy due to aggressive pricing. This of course explains the 18% drop.

So yeah what we need is alot more of these to exhaust the supply of these buyers out there AND/OR resellers who are non distressed to start pricing more aggressively.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with you… I think your analysis is objective.

The bounce that we have have seen has indeed been robust in comparison to the past several months of activity. Taken in context to yoy numbers it is heartening to see. I also think that there is a psychological different though right? I know last year I sold a listing in Summerset and the year before that a listing on Goleta. Both those homes took awhile to sell. This year as you well know AN the majority of the MM sales that we have seen have been like a feeding frenzy due to aggressive pricing. This of course explains the 18% drop.

So yeah what we need is alot more of these to exhaust the supply of these buyers out there AND/OR resellers who are non distressed to start pricing more aggressively.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with you… I think your analysis is objective.

The bounce that we have have seen has indeed been robust in comparison to the past several months of activity. Taken in context to yoy numbers it is heartening to see. I also think that there is a psychological different though right? I know last year I sold a listing in Summerset and the year before that a listing on Goleta. Both those homes took awhile to sell. This year as you well know AN the majority of the MM sales that we have seen have been like a feeding frenzy due to aggressive pricing. This of course explains the 18% drop.

So yeah what we need is alot more of these to exhaust the supply of these buyers out there AND/OR resellers who are non distressed to start pricing more aggressively.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with you… I think your analysis is objective.

The bounce that we have have seen has indeed been robust in comparison to the past several months of activity. Taken in context to yoy numbers it is heartening to see. I also think that there is a psychological different though right? I know last year I sold a listing in Summerset and the year before that a listing on Goleta. Both those homes took awhile to sell. This year as you well know AN the majority of the MM sales that we have seen have been like a feeding frenzy due to aggressive pricing. This of course explains the 18% drop.

So yeah what we need is alot more of these to exhaust the supply of these buyers out there AND/OR resellers who are non distressed to start pricing more aggressively.

SD Realtor

[an]

I was bored last night so I did some reading on Mira Mesa Town Council meeting minutes and I’ve discovered something very interest. There will be massive amount of new housing in Mira Mesa in the next 10 years. I say 10 because they didn’t say exactly when they’ll start building. They’re planning to put over 5000 housing units in the area south of Mira Mesa and north of Miramar, between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz. The empty area north of Best Buy is also in final stages of planning, so they should theoretically be building soon. There will be 3 developments there. I’m not sure how many units will go there. The 3rd development will be at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal/Sorrento Valley Blvd. They plan to have a little over 100 units of mostly SFR and some twin homes. That development I think is on hold but I did see some developers w/ plans standing around that area when I drove home the other day. I wonder how 5000+ new homes in MM will affect the supply equation.

[an]

I was bored last night so I did some reading on Mira Mesa Town Council meeting minutes and I’ve discovered something very interest. There will be massive amount of new housing in Mira Mesa in the next 10 years. I say 10 because they didn’t say exactly when they’ll start building. They’re planning to put over 5000 housing units in the area south of Mira Mesa and north of Miramar, between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz. The empty area north of Best Buy is also in final stages of planning, so they should theoretically be building soon. There will be 3 developments there. I’m not sure how many units will go there. The 3rd development will be at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal/Sorrento Valley Blvd. They plan to have a little over 100 units of mostly SFR and some twin homes. That development I think is on hold but I did see some developers w/ plans standing around that area when I drove home the other day. I wonder how 5000+ new homes in MM will affect the supply equation.

[an]

I was bored last night so I did some reading on Mira Mesa Town Council meeting minutes and I’ve discovered something very interest. There will be massive amount of new housing in Mira Mesa in the next 10 years. I say 10 because they didn’t say exactly when they’ll start building. They’re planning to put over 5000 housing units in the area south of Mira Mesa and north of Miramar, between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz. The empty area north of Best Buy is also in final stages of planning, so they should theoretically be building soon. There will be 3 developments there. I’m not sure how many units will go there. The 3rd development will be at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal/Sorrento Valley Blvd. They plan to have a little over 100 units of mostly SFR and some twin homes. That development I think is on hold but I did see some developers w/ plans standing around that area when I drove home the other day. I wonder how 5000+ new homes in MM will affect the supply equation.

[an]

I was bored last night so I did some reading on Mira Mesa Town Council meeting minutes and I’ve discovered something very interest. There will be massive amount of new housing in Mira Mesa in the next 10 years. I say 10 because they didn’t say exactly when they’ll start building. They’re planning to put over 5000 housing units in the area south of Mira Mesa and north of Miramar, between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz. The empty area north of Best Buy is also in final stages of planning, so they should theoretically be building soon. There will be 3 developments there. I’m not sure how many units will go there. The 3rd development will be at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal/Sorrento Valley Blvd. They plan to have a little over 100 units of mostly SFR and some twin homes. That development I think is on hold but I did see some developers w/ plans standing around that area when I drove home the other day. I wonder how 5000+ new homes in MM will affect the supply equation.

[Author]

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