Excellent summation why housing market will be terrible for a long time

[KSMountain]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][This already happened in the mid- to late-1980’s. Our lords at that time were the Japanese.

What pulled us out of that spiral ?[/quote]
That’s a great question. I remember those times clearly. I believe in hindsight it is apparent that we were overly concerned about the Japanese becoming our new masters. Say about 1986 that was really in vogue. Many folks were predicting it at the time as an obviously inevitable outcome.

I think for one thing we underestimated the impact of their demographic shift (aging). Might another factor have been self-fulfilling optimism (justified or not) that seemed to accompany the transition from Carter to Reagan?

Another factor I believe Greenspan used to say was increased productivity due to technology. Certainly there is some truth to that one. If any of you remember the days of copy pools and whiteout correction fluid and telexes and pay phones…

Now, are any factors like that on the horizon to help us this time? I don’t see them yet, but of course that is the nature of things that are over the horizon. It seems to me we have many negatives and many positives for our future.

The question to me is, will this downturn be cyclical (as all the others have been), or is this the start of a permanent secular downturn? I think anyone arguing the latter really has the onus on them to justify why “it’s different this time”. Certainly there were several folks on this board two years ago who predicted we would have long since descended into anarchy by now. Remember those posts? Maybe they were just long gold… As I recall they were hoarding seeds and bullets and water. How’d that work out? I guess they probably made some good salads from their gardens though…

[lifeisgood]

I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.

[lifeisgood]

I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.

[lifeisgood]

I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.

[lifeisgood]

I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.

[lifeisgood]

I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeisgood]I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.[/quote]

I echo your sentiments, lifeisgood, and do not even consider myself “bullish.”

Whichever turns a particular RE market takes affects only that micro-market. Even in SD County, there are many micro-markets. I’ve said before that multiple foreclosures and short sales in 91915 (Chula Vista) for instance, has NOTHING to do with what’s going on over in (nearby) Coronado. The sellers and buyers in these two markets are vastly different from one another as is the desirability factors of the particular homes/areas within them.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeisgood]I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.[/quote]

I echo your sentiments, lifeisgood, and do not even consider myself “bullish.”

Whichever turns a particular RE market takes affects only that micro-market. Even in SD County, there are many micro-markets. I’ve said before that multiple foreclosures and short sales in 91915 (Chula Vista) for instance, has NOTHING to do with what’s going on over in (nearby) Coronado. The sellers and buyers in these two markets are vastly different from one another as is the desirability factors of the particular homes/areas within them.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeisgood]I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.[/quote]

I echo your sentiments, lifeisgood, and do not even consider myself “bullish.”

Whichever turns a particular RE market takes affects only that micro-market. Even in SD County, there are many micro-markets. I’ve said before that multiple foreclosures and short sales in 91915 (Chula Vista) for instance, has NOTHING to do with what’s going on over in (nearby) Coronado. The sellers and buyers in these two markets are vastly different from one another as is the desirability factors of the particular homes/areas within them.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeisgood]I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.[/quote]

I echo your sentiments, lifeisgood, and do not even consider myself “bullish.”

Whichever turns a particular RE market takes affects only that micro-market. Even in SD County, there are many micro-markets. I’ve said before that multiple foreclosures and short sales in 91915 (Chula Vista) for instance, has NOTHING to do with what’s going on over in (nearby) Coronado. The sellers and buyers in these two markets are vastly different from one another as is the desirability factors of the particular homes/areas within them.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=lifeisgood]I love this website for the different points of view on the housing market. I think it is hilarious that whenever there is a topic describing housing tumoil, it is always broad and hardly ever specific to San Diego. I really don’t care what is going on in Nevada or any other state for that matter. Any time there is an article written about the San Diego housing market stabilizing, a lot of people on this board tear it up and say that there is an endless amount of data against this idea. I’m not saying that we will see extreme increases in SD home values, but I am suggesting that there are a lot of areas of San Diego that have slightly increased in value or are stable. That is just the way it is. There are a ton of areas of San Diego that will not decrease in value any further and I believe that some of you can’t wrap your heads around this idea. I do not expect these areas to increase in value any time soon either. Lets face it, San Diego is not Las Vegas or Tampa or Orlando or Phoenix etc… We live in a City that is desirable and people are buying homes at the cyclic rate in our city. If the home is priced at market value, it will sell quickly. I also don’t believe that San Diego has a whole lot of ghost ivnentory left out there compared to the rest of the state/country. I do think that other parts of the country are not as fortunate. Just my opinion.[/quote]

I echo your sentiments, lifeisgood, and do not even consider myself “bullish.”

Whichever turns a particular RE market takes affects only that micro-market. Even in SD County, there are many micro-markets. I’ve said before that multiple foreclosures and short sales in 91915 (Chula Vista) for instance, has NOTHING to do with what’s going on over in (nearby) Coronado. The sellers and buyers in these two markets are vastly different from one another as is the desirability factors of the particular homes/areas within them.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Would have been is a far cry from was. If my son would have been a girl his name would have been Allison. They were wrong in the way things actually happened. Both made predictions of what and when that did not come to pass. A broken clock is right twice a day. The world does not operate in a vacuum and there are forces out there they did not account for (i.e. government intervention). When all this was coming down I said that there would be heroic measures coming from gov’t in ways you could never imagine. I had no supporters with the possible exception of SD R (though he was far more moderate in his expectations than in). Its all here on the archives of this site for anyone to see. You and others constantly said there was no way they could stop the flood. Who was right?[/quote]

Nope, I also knew they would pull out all the stops in their interventions. It’s all in the archives, as well (especially on the HBB). I even predicted the homebuyer’s credit, mortgage purchases, and the takeover of the GSEs. I also said that these measures would not “fix” anything, but would rather prolong the downturn and make the eventual costs even greater.

They have not succeeded in “fixing” anything, only in making it worse. Duration, duration, duration…

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Would have been is a far cry from was. If my son would have been a girl his name would have been Allison. They were wrong in the way things actually happened. Both made predictions of what and when that did not come to pass. A broken clock is right twice a day. The world does not operate in a vacuum and there are forces out there they did not account for (i.e. government intervention). When all this was coming down I said that there would be heroic measures coming from gov’t in ways you could never imagine. I had no supporters with the possible exception of SD R (though he was far more moderate in his expectations than in). Its all here on the archives of this site for anyone to see. You and others constantly said there was no way they could stop the flood. Who was right?[/quote]

Nope, I also knew they would pull out all the stops in their interventions. It’s all in the archives, as well (especially on the HBB). I even predicted the homebuyer’s credit, mortgage purchases, and the takeover of the GSEs. I also said that these measures would not “fix” anything, but would rather prolong the downturn and make the eventual costs even greater.

They have not succeeded in “fixing” anything, only in making it worse. Duration, duration, duration…

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Would have been is a far cry from was. If my son would have been a girl his name would have been Allison. They were wrong in the way things actually happened. Both made predictions of what and when that did not come to pass. A broken clock is right twice a day. The world does not operate in a vacuum and there are forces out there they did not account for (i.e. government intervention). When all this was coming down I said that there would be heroic measures coming from gov’t in ways you could never imagine. I had no supporters with the possible exception of SD R (though he was far more moderate in his expectations than in). Its all here on the archives of this site for anyone to see. You and others constantly said there was no way they could stop the flood. Who was right?[/quote]

Nope, I also knew they would pull out all the stops in their interventions. It’s all in the archives, as well (especially on the HBB). I even predicted the homebuyer’s credit, mortgage purchases, and the takeover of the GSEs. I also said that these measures would not “fix” anything, but would rather prolong the downturn and make the eventual costs even greater.

They have not succeeded in “fixing” anything, only in making it worse. Duration, duration, duration…

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Would have been is a far cry from was. If my son would have been a girl his name would have been Allison. They were wrong in the way things actually happened. Both made predictions of what and when that did not come to pass. A broken clock is right twice a day. The world does not operate in a vacuum and there are forces out there they did not account for (i.e. government intervention). When all this was coming down I said that there would be heroic measures coming from gov’t in ways you could never imagine. I had no supporters with the possible exception of SD R (though he was far more moderate in his expectations than in). Its all here on the archives of this site for anyone to see. You and others constantly said there was no way they could stop the flood. Who was right?[/quote]

Nope, I also knew they would pull out all the stops in their interventions. It’s all in the archives, as well (especially on the HBB). I even predicted the homebuyer’s credit, mortgage purchases, and the takeover of the GSEs. I also said that these measures would not “fix” anything, but would rather prolong the downturn and make the eventual costs even greater.

They have not succeeded in “fixing” anything, only in making it worse. Duration, duration, duration…

[Author]

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