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June 1, 2011 at 6:48 PM #701732June 1, 2011 at 7:02 PM #700547
CA renter
ParticipantHere, from 2008:
Comment by CA renter
2008-12-13 04:21:21[regarding the year 2008]…And also agree about this being a particularly good year for the bears.
After four years of being a short-seller, I closed all my positions (long and short) in mid-October. The easy stuff is over, IMHO. From here on out, I think a lot of traders (long and short) will get their legs ripped off.
When Bill Fleckenstein closed up shop, I knew I was in good company.
June 1, 2011 at 7:02 PM #700644ParticipantHere, from 2008:
Comment by CA renter
2008-12-13 04:21:21[regarding the year 2008]…And also agree about this being a particularly good year for the bears.
After four years of being a short-seller, I closed all my positions (long and short) in mid-October. The easy stuff is over, IMHO. From here on out, I think a lot of traders (long and short) will get their legs ripped off.
When Bill Fleckenstein closed up shop, I knew I was in good company.
June 1, 2011 at 7:02 PM #701235ParticipantHere, from 2008:
Comment by CA renter
2008-12-13 04:21:21[regarding the year 2008]…And also agree about this being a particularly good year for the bears.
After four years of being a short-seller, I closed all my positions (long and short) in mid-October. The easy stuff is over, IMHO. From here on out, I think a lot of traders (long and short) will get their legs ripped off.
When Bill Fleckenstein closed up shop, I knew I was in good company.
June 1, 2011 at 7:02 PM #701385ParticipantHere, from 2008:
Comment by CA renter
2008-12-13 04:21:21[regarding the year 2008]…And also agree about this being a particularly good year for the bears.
After four years of being a short-seller, I closed all my positions (long and short) in mid-October. The easy stuff is over, IMHO. From here on out, I think a lot of traders (long and short) will get their legs ripped off.
When Bill Fleckenstein closed up shop, I knew I was in good company.
June 1, 2011 at 7:02 PM #701742ParticipantHere, from 2008:
Comment by CA renter
2008-12-13 04:21:21[regarding the year 2008]…And also agree about this being a particularly good year for the bears.
After four years of being a short-seller, I closed all my positions (long and short) in mid-October. The easy stuff is over, IMHO. From here on out, I think a lot of traders (long and short) will get their legs ripped off.
When Bill Fleckenstein closed up shop, I knew I was in good company.
June 1, 2011 at 7:12 PM #700551ParticipantThis one, from June of 2007:
Comment by CA renter
2007-06-30 04:33:39I’ll stick with my prediction from last year…YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008.
The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind.
The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later).
June 1, 2011 at 7:12 PM #700649ParticipantThis one, from June of 2007:
Comment by CA renter
2007-06-30 04:33:39I’ll stick with my prediction from last year…YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008.
The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind.
The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later).
June 1, 2011 at 7:12 PM #701240ParticipantThis one, from June of 2007:
Comment by CA renter
2007-06-30 04:33:39I’ll stick with my prediction from last year…YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008.
The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind.
The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later).
June 1, 2011 at 7:12 PM #701390ParticipantThis one, from June of 2007:
Comment by CA renter
2007-06-30 04:33:39I’ll stick with my prediction from last year…YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008.
The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind.
The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later).
June 1, 2011 at 7:12 PM #701747ParticipantThis one, from June of 2007:
Comment by CA renter
2007-06-30 04:33:39I’ll stick with my prediction from last year…YOY housing prices, nationally, will be down 10-15% by Dec 2007. There will likely be some type of (failed) bailout attempt, which will stem the foreclosures temporarily. Recession by Dec 2007. Foreclosures rise into 2008 & national prices drop an additional 10-15% by late 2008.
The credit markets will likely be volatile & I believe there will be periods when it looks like everything will collapse, then suddenly all will seem well as more money is injected into the system (from???). Each time the credit spigot gets turned back on, though, the loose periods will be shorter and shallower than before, IMHO. Very slowly, liquidity will dry up, but it will probably take years to totally unwind.
The bottom arrives no sooner than 2010-2012, with an emphasis on 2012 (or later).
June 1, 2011 at 7:46 PM #700561moneymaker
ParticipantThe economy is not as difficult to predict as the governments policy/tampering. I agree with walterwhite that inflation eventually is inevitable, the question is when! It really bothers me when people associate one event with another when there is no clear relationship. Just read on Bloomberg “oil prices down because of lower hiring” what!? How does a worldwide commodity like oil have anything to do with local/national labor/unemployment? Unemployment is our nations greatest problem and it seems to me like the government wants the private sector to take care of it through cheap money, well it ain’t gonna work in my opinion,never really believed in the trickle down theory. That’s why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
June 1, 2011 at 7:46 PM #700659ParticipantThe economy is not as difficult to predict as the governments policy/tampering. I agree with walterwhite that inflation eventually is inevitable, the question is when! It really bothers me when people associate one event with another when there is no clear relationship. Just read on Bloomberg “oil prices down because of lower hiring” what!? How does a worldwide commodity like oil have anything to do with local/national labor/unemployment? Unemployment is our nations greatest problem and it seems to me like the government wants the private sector to take care of it through cheap money, well it ain’t gonna work in my opinion,never really believed in the trickle down theory. That’s why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
June 1, 2011 at 7:46 PM #701250ParticipantThe economy is not as difficult to predict as the governments policy/tampering. I agree with walterwhite that inflation eventually is inevitable, the question is when! It really bothers me when people associate one event with another when there is no clear relationship. Just read on Bloomberg “oil prices down because of lower hiring” what!? How does a worldwide commodity like oil have anything to do with local/national labor/unemployment? Unemployment is our nations greatest problem and it seems to me like the government wants the private sector to take care of it through cheap money, well it ain’t gonna work in my opinion,never really believed in the trickle down theory. That’s why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
June 1, 2011 at 7:46 PM #701400ParticipantThe economy is not as difficult to predict as the governments policy/tampering. I agree with walterwhite that inflation eventually is inevitable, the question is when! It really bothers me when people associate one event with another when there is no clear relationship. Just read on Bloomberg “oil prices down because of lower hiring” what!? How does a worldwide commodity like oil have anything to do with local/national labor/unemployment? Unemployment is our nations greatest problem and it seems to me like the government wants the private sector to take care of it through cheap money, well it ain’t gonna work in my opinion,never really believed in the trickle down theory. That’s why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
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