Example of the 1990s downturn

[PerryChase]

Look at the listing and price history of this Del Rayo Downs house. It’s not the convenant of Rancho Santa Fe but it was a high end tract development in 1989.

It took 8 years for prices to recover. If history is any guide to this downturn, I don’t expect it be the right time to buy until 2014. Patience, patience.

5859 SARATOGA CORTE, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067**
List Price: $1,595,000 – $1,595,000
Price Reduced: 11/16/06 — $1,795,000 to $1,595,000
DOM: 90
MLS #: 061072825

Sales History
Date Price
07/06/2000 $995,000
09/13/1996 $685,000
03/01/1994 $730,000
08/11/1989 $755,122

ZipRealty Link

Sales History Link

[no_such_reality]

Interesting history, I wonder what happened to the people or person that bought in 1994. It seems a little odd that from ’89 to ’94 basically held it’s price with a mere 2% nominal reduction. All told, it’s less than a 10% nominal drop.

[Mexico Resident]

Looks more like 3% drop to me. But wait. Add another $250K for interest payments during those 5 years. Adjust for inflation another $150K. Looks like about $400K cost all told in real terms. (I didn’t even include the 6-8% cost of sales)

[PerryChase]

Look at this modest condo in Mira Mesa. This is an example of a unit whose sales history spans the 1980s real estate boom. 12 years for a recovery. I expect history to repeat itself. Most people live in their houses 5 years so we’ll see some forced sales at big losses in 2008.

List Price: $299,900 – $299,900
MLS #: 064094222
8439 WESTMORE ROAD #79, SD – Mira Mesa, CA 92126**

Notwithsanting the asking price, this seller would be lucky to get $250k in this market.

Date Price
06/28/1996 $75,000
07/28/1989 $93,000
05/05/1986 $78,600
12/31/1985 $72,500
02/22/1984 $71,000

[powayseller]

Good work PC. Examples like are powerful. I can just picture some people thinking that this couldn’t possibly happen to a single family home in Encinitas or North Poway. Do you have more examples of supposed “superior properties”?

[Author]

Posts