Equities and RE likely to be linked?

[pertinazzio]

As the real estate markets continue the slow spiral back to reality what is likely to happen in the equities markets ? Somebody suggested in another thread that more foreclosures could actually stimulate consumer spending but I wonder. Wouldn’t 30-50% declines in real estate values be regarded as some kind of national crisis? Wouldn’t there be spill over ? Best to all, Pertinazzio

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Historically housing declines lead to recession and a decline in equities. Based on history, I would expect some sort of decline in equities, assuming we are heading into recession. I am not betting my portfolio on it, though.

However, I do not agree with those who think this would lead to a 50% decline in stocks as some former posters have predicted here … from the archives …

http://piggington.com/s_p500_dropping_to_600_by_spring_07

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Historically housing declines lead to recession and a decline in equities. Based on history, I would expect some sort of decline in equities, assuming we are heading into recession. I am not betting my portfolio on it, though.

However, I do not agree with those who think this would lead to a 50% decline in stocks as some former posters have predicted here … from the archives …

http://piggington.com/s_p500_dropping_to_600_by_spring_07

[pertinazzio]

Thanks FSD! I looked at that thread and even commented on something (that was kind of stupid for me to do since the thread was so old… sorry everybody). My own thought is that if housing suddenly began to collapse the markets would of course react but if they go into a long slow meltdown the markets will be more resilent especially in those sectors more focused on “global growth”. GE for instance is doing like 40% of its business overseas. And Jim Cramer has been recommending stocks that he says are recession proof because they are getting business from the build out in China. CAT and TER and CRVD come to mind. Which leaves me thinking that I can have the best of both worlds: ie out of real estate waiting for the deals while continuing to accumulate in the market. Wall Street is different than it used to be. The U.S. isn’t everything now like it was. Of course, as they say “man proposes, god disposes” …..

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Thanks FSD! I looked at that thread and even commented on something (that was kind of stupid for me to do since the thread was so old… sorry everybody). My own thought is that if housing suddenly began to collapse the markets would of course react but if they go into a long slow meltdown the markets will be more resilent especially in those sectors more focused on “global growth”. GE for instance is doing like 40% of its business overseas. And Jim Cramer has been recommending stocks that he says are recession proof because they are getting business from the build out in China. CAT and TER and CRVD come to mind. Which leaves me thinking that I can have the best of both worlds: ie out of real estate waiting for the deals while continuing to accumulate in the market. Wall Street is different than it used to be. The U.S. isn’t everything now like it was. Of course, as they say “man proposes, god disposes” …..

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[patientlywaiting]

” out of real estate waiting for the deals while continuing to accumulate in the market.”

I agree. Why hold a depreciating asset when you could be invested in earning assets.

[patientlywaiting]

” out of real estate waiting for the deals while continuing to accumulate in the market.”

I agree. Why hold a depreciating asset when you could be invested in earning assets.

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