This article is from a few months back but is predicting a most ominous trendline!
The following points are my opinions and I stand ready to argue about them all day. You may disagree with me, but try to keep an open mind and carefully review this market fundamentals list. Also, think about the implications of these market viewpoints.
(1) Government news and policy is either wrong, damaging or both. Smart traders most always go opposite the news. M-3 measurement of cash is now unpublished. Why is this? We think to simply hide the scary numbers. 2. Oil is not plentiful and prices are going higher. Supply is not going down. Usage is going up. (3) Iraq was all about oil. Iran and Syria are next on the oil hit list. Syria is a walk-over, but Iran is formidable. (4) The US Dollar is going down in the long term, up in the short term. (5) Interest rates are mildly up in the short term and then are flat to down. (6) We have both inflation and deflation right now. Confusion reigns as observers do not know which one has the power. Answer-They both do for today. Either we get an inflationary blow-off followed by deflation or we get deflation. The end game is depression. Is the world ending? No it is not. It’s just getting a bit nasty for a few years until this big mess goes through its historical cycle then life goes on.
(7) Swiss Francs and Canadian Dollars are going up. The Euro is going up then down, and then disappears. (8) Gold and silver are going up. (9) Inflationary daily life will become much tougher. (10) All government from the lowest to the highest will not belt tighten like us little folks. They will grab for more and take more. (11) If the grabbing becomes too pushy, consumers will push back. (12) Crime will sky rocket as will unemployment. (13) Cash becomes king while debt a millstone on your neck. Then, gold and silver will become the king of kings. 14) Paper of all kinds, notes, mortgages, loans, etc. become worthless or worth less. (15) Today’s events are like the 1930’s. The Nasdaq implosion was identical to 1929. Today, we are preparing for the next wave of selling after a bear market bounce. We will get at least two more head fake bear market rallies in the race to the bottom for mainstream stocks. Next will resemble 1937 in market action which was negative.
(16) Professional stock market people are dumping securities with both hands into each buying rally. (17) The Sheeple are encouraged to buy the dips so the pros can use the rallies to sell out. (18) Overpaid CEO’s are selling stock with both hands and running with the money. Many then retire for “family and personal reasons.” (19) Even small accounts can make big winnings if you are on the right side of the trade. (20) Loose lips sink ships. Don’t sink your ship. Act poor and live comfortably.
(21) GM has lost over $10 billion for 2005. Their cash flow is a negative $3 billion and they lost $8 billion net excluding accounting problems. Their annual healthcare expenditure equaled the net loss of $8 billion. WSJ reports they must downsize and close four plants. Now they say 12 plants. They offered buyouts to retire 35,000 employees. They need to shed 45-85,000 jobs and 25 plants but the unions will not permit it. They will be headed to bankruptcy court in late 2006 or 2007 when union contract talks enter stalemate. Annual healthcare costs are $10,000 per current or retired employee. All corporations will be seeking to escape health care expenses partially or entirely. Look for repudiated pensions and healthcare liabilities to be dumped on the federal government. The government’s pension bail-out fund is now broke. They will just print more cash to cover accelerating costs.
(22) The March PPI rose 0.7% in 2005 the highest in four months. Energy costs are the main driver. Oil is holding in the $64.50-66.50 range as we forecast. Unleaded fuel this summer or early fall will be +$3.00 at the pump due to refinery shortages as we reported. Within 18 months gas will be $5 a gallon. Oil is going to $85 a barrel within 12 months or less. Attacks on Syria and Iran could cause it to rise sooner. We expect the violence to begin sometime in 2006 to prevent Iran from using an atomic bomb on New York City. Iran has a big military that could be severely damaged. Israel and the US Stryker Forces are on maneuvers right now in southern Israel. This forecast could be obviated as news is now saying back door talks with the USA and Iran are in process and things are cooling down. (23) The support level for the Dow is 10,400-10,000 and a blow-off top is 11,400. After the 10,000 low is secured, look for 9350 next. A selling slide is imminent.
(24) Hugo Chavez is raising his oil tax on Venezuelan oil producers from 34% to 50%. After he gets away with that, then expect him to steal it all. He and Fidel are spoiling for trouble all over South America. Any foreign corporation operating in Venezuela will be a target for government theft. Indonesia has also joined this anti-business crowd. Expect other countries to follow suit as the bold become bolder in their taking-stealing efforts. (25) Middle Eastern oil rich nations are buying gold more rapidly. These same countries feel abused by the USA and are moving to trade oil in Euros and other non-USA currencies which is very big trouble. (26) Thoughtless American senators, wrangling for attention and votes are running around harassing China and other nations over currency and trade protectionist matters which ensure throwing gasoline on the USA trade deficit making life miserable for American business people.
(27) Grain is suffering from a 100 year global drought and is hitting north China particularly hard. Grain is energy powered. Everything from fertilizer, to seeds, tractors, harvesting machines and market transport will take a cheap food commodity and make it costly. World-wide supplies of grain are at 30 year lows. Supply and demand will eventually prevail. Global weather has entered one of its historically nasty cycles creating havoc for growers and insurance companies.
(28) The precious metals have a long way to rise in price. There will be ups and downs throughout the trade as there are in any market. Naysayers will try to drive you out as these rally markets can wound and perhaps kill “other status quo markets.” It’s going to be you or them. I would rather it be them and get our economy back on solid footing once more. The news is wrong and twisted to promote the status quo viewpoint. Do not ever forget this.
At its extreme, gold is on a one way track to $2,960. Modestly, the top could be $1,250. Currently, gold and silver are topping but stubbornly holding higher prices and refusing to correct. We either get a mild correction and subsequent major rally, or a larger correction followed by the same major rally. History repeats again and again. As of 3-30-06, it appears we are seeing a new gold and silver market beginning to rally.
How to Cope and be Comfortable
“No one really listens to anyone else, and if you try it for awhile you’ll see why.” –Mignon McLaughlin
Focus on the fundamentals first, then invest and trade on the technicals. In my opinion, the more difficult part is staying with the focused fundamentals and not wavering in belief. One thing about beliefs is put rather bluntly by Theodore Sturgeon who says, “Ninety percent of everything is crap.” If you can laugh at this and take it as face value, as focusing on your own beliefs is much easier. Jim Sinclair, one of the very wealthy and experienced gold professionals always suggests simple tools and straight forward beliefs. Do not forget, somebody is going to lose if you win with gold. When the potential losers take a position opposite gold they want to be the winner and you the loser. It’s that simple. This group will do almost anything to disparage gold and enhance their positions. Since they are the news controllers, expect the majority of news to be wrong footed nonsense.
When gold wins fiat paper is not even good toilet tissue. It’s too rough and won’t crinkle. There are some very powerful central bankers, fiat money proponents and securities people who all fear gold. Gold will ruin their happy little status quo which is why gold prices have been smothered. The markets these people cannot control are the CURRENCIES. Bonds can be somewhat controlled but not to the extent they can be bent totally to the satisfaction of manipulators. When the consumer caves in economically which is very soon, nobody will take care of you but you. You must take control and go opposite today’s majority which is very difficult. Those status quo believers are the dominating force. When the game caves in and there is a race to liquidity, non-believers will be seriously damaged causing severe life style changes and perhaps even the end of their happy little bucolic existence.
It will not hurt anybody to get out of debt, lower life style expectations and take steps to protect your future. If I am totally wrong what can you lose? If I am right and you stay with the status quo, what does your future look like? Don’t let the enemies of gold run you off. Hold your gold and have strength of purpose. Remember, that first of all the fundamentals mandate gold and history tells us precious metals are the place to win for several more years. –Trader Rog
I would never write my newsletter like that. Whoever wrote that is hedged to the tune of over $1000 per ounce! How could you keep any clients? How would someone determine a position to take in Gold based on that? We are topping, but holding at high levels, which is it? A topping pattern or a consolidation? He could go back after the fact no matter what happens and say I told you so.
It was clearly written by someone who is not a trader, just an analyst. Some of the things in there I do agree with, but the Gold portion is ridiculous.
Just get a position, state it, and live with it right or wrong. It is what I do, and you know what, sometimes I am wrong and I lose money! I move on to the next trade.
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