“Ditch the Doorman for the Cul-de-Sac”

[Coronita]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/manhattan-rent-down-vacancy-up-193314128.html

“In the beginning of March, April, we saw a tremendous outbound migration. About over 400,000 people left Manhattan, 40% of the occupants, essentially,” Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants, which prepared the report for New York City residential brokerage Douglas Elliman, told Yahoo Finance. Renters in Manhattan “became first-time buyers, they lived with relatives, they rented — they did anything but come into the city,” he said.

[spdrun]

Manhattan population was 1.6 million and change, so 400k is 25%, not 40%. Some of those people left for good, others didn’t. Long-term (next year) delta is probably more like -10%. Remember that we’re NOT experiencing a second wave or a resurgence of cases so far, despite gradual reopening. Under 5% vacancy rate would be the envy of many US cities, even in good times.

Despite sensational news saying so, Midtown is hardly a ghost town (photo taken last week, just before a big rain storm – more foot traffic than most US cities on a good day). Don’t believe everything the media and people with an agenda on the Hinternets tell you…

[gzz]

5th Ave looking pretty bad. Scroll down for the video:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghost-town-shocking-dystopian-video-nyc-shows-abandoned-and-boarded-5th-avenue

I’ve never purchased anything in my life at a high end luxury store. But I appreciate their beautiful storefronts, and they can be interesting to browse a little.

Looks like the storefront of the Macy’s in spdrun’s photo is also boarded up. The most expensive rents in the USA don’t get you physical security. But the Burger King is “NOW OPEN”

[spdrun]

6th Ave/Herald Square, not 5th Ave. Side view of “the” Macy’s in NYC, that’s definitely open, though only until 7pm most days. The Burger King sign has been there since the 90s — it’s actually underground next to the subway station stairs.

Nice try, though. Old video on Zerohedge … Saks is also open now.

[gzz]

The article is about a Mickey D’s that’s a 2 minute walk from the photo.

“ Yet along the way I spent hours in this McDonald’s, talking with Loosey, a recovering crack cocaine addict, and others about their lives. The regulars showed me how this McDonald’s worked — how some people would head straight for the bathroom to buy drugs. How the small bags spilling out of an open backpack were heroin. How “dog food” was slang for “dope,” which was slang for heroin. How “crack cocaine” was still just crack. How synthetic marijuana, or “K2,” smelled.

Some did heroin in the bathroom. Some poured beers into clear McCafe cups or swallowed illicit prescription drugs, even in front of the McDonald’s janitorial staff, who seemed impossibly busy and beaten down and spoke only Spanish. The regulars themselves sometimes seemed impossibly beaten down. One cried as he drank King Cobra beer in a paper bag, spouting dreams of getting away from McDonald’s and moving to the country but with no way to figure out how to get there”

Who can identify this huge 90s hit without looking it up?

“I like the girls with the boom I once got busy in a Burger King bathroom”

[spdrun]

The McD’s in question is about 5-10 min walk from Herald Square — cross town blocks are longer. Article is from 2015. Place is basically smack (hah!) in between Penn Station and the Port Authority terminal. It’s been crackhead central ever since I remember it.

BTW – look carefully at the “boarded up” Macy’s. I think you’re seeing what you want to see … looks like a light brown/gold display case behind a window. The dark color doesn’t occupy the entire window frame.

Same video on Youtube — it’s over two months old (early June) and the nutjobs at ZeroHedge are billing it as hot news. LOL! More proof that the real fake news comes from the right wing or perhaps it’s all about presentation…

[svelte]

[quote=gzz]5th Ave looking pretty bad. Scroll down for the video:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghost-town-shocking-dystopian-video-nyc-shows-abandoned-and-boarded-5th-avenue

I’ve never purchased anything in my life at a high end luxury store. But I appreciate their beautiful storefronts, and they can be interesting to browse a little.

Looks like the storefront of the Macy’s in spdrun’s photo is also boarded up. The most expensive rents in the USA don’t get you physical security. But the Burger King is “NOW OPEN”[/quote]

Hmmm. That video was taken 8/6. Look at 1:16 – Saks Fifth Avenue was all boarded up.

Now look at the live view I took just now 8/16 at 9:15 AM San Diego time, which would be 12:15 Manhattan time.

Saks Fifth Avenue is not boarded up! Not many people on the sidewalks, but definitely not boarded up.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/fifthave/?cam=nyc5th_str

[img_assist|nid=27209|title=Saks Fifth Ave on 8/16/2020|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=262]

[Coronita]

People still believe in what zerohedge writes?
I thought it was known zerohedge is a source of a lot of fake news and doomsayers.

[sdrealtor]

Spoke to another NY friend last night. Lifelong NYer not a NJ guy that has only been there a few years but a multi generation Manhattanite. Picking up stakes and going to Dallas. Just another anecdote but the trend is real. My cousins kids are heading to Denver with their Blackrock jobs soon.

Sure it’s a big city and lots will stay. Sure a mass exodus won’t happen overnight. But the appeal of the city has changed in a very real way. I love The City and will never stop visiting but the world has changed in a very real way and long term trends are shifting away from urban ultra high density

[svelte]

Yep I agree.

My son leaves SF in two weeks. His family is moving to a much smaller N Cal city. They are keeping their jobs albeit taking a salary hit (their employers aren’t dumb) but feel the quality of life improvement is worth it.

They are going to rent for a year to see if they truly like the new area then buy – they’ve already saved up the down payment.

This is such a change for him, he was always all about the big city. Having kids changed his perspective, as did the lockdown. They spent months with their 1 year old only being able to watch the traffic go by out the window, not leaving the apartment. They want a back yard and more space between neighbors.

[scaredyclassic]

The internet is the city.

[sdrealtor]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-city-is-dead-forever-according-to-one-lifelong-new-yorker-2020-08-16?mod=home-page

Not just an American phenomena

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/15/business/coronavirus-london-relocation/index.html

[XBoxBoy]

Yet another article:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall

What I’m wondering is if people leaving these major metropolises is driving the current hot real estate market in San Diego? Or is it just low interest rates allowing people a good opportunity to buy their first house or move up? What happens if people move out of London, NYC, San Fran, but in a year employers are done with work from home?

[svelte]

[quote=XBoxBoy]Yet another article:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall

[/quote]

While the article for the most part is true, it does tend to site extreme examples…

” Between 2009 and 2019, the median cost of a single-family home in the San Francisco Bay Area nearly tripled to around $1 million. Even renting a bunk bed in a room with five other people can cost over $1,300 a month.”

Son was renting a 1 BR apt in nicer part of Potrero Hill for under $2K.

“The region is expensive in other ways too. Getting a cheeseburger and fries delivered can easily cost $25. An ice cream cone can cost $7.”

Just bought my grandsons two ice cream cones at Baskin Robbins in Vista this weekend…cost me $19. Doesn’t sound like SF is more expensive than Vista!

[quote=XBoxBoy] What happens if people move out of London, NYC, San Fran, but in a year employers are done with work from home?[/quote]

I’m a little worried about that and told my son. I think the reality will be between the two extremes…some will lean towards locals and others will like the lower salary that remote employees offer them.

My son pointed out that his wife’s sister and her husband left SF two years ago for Hawaii where they still live. They both still work for silly valley tech companies – able to keep their jobs when they moved – so the trend has been around for a bit already. I couldn’t argue with that.

[quote=XBoxBoy]
What I’m wondering is if people leaving these major metropolises is driving the current hot real estate market in San Diego? [/quote]

I have a neighbor who sold their house recently in 5 hours, all cash, full asking price.

I wonder how all of this work-from-home is impacting the planned redesign of Horton Plaza into tech office space. Seems like terrible timing…HP can’t seem to catch a break.

[spdrun]

hey spent months with their 1 year old only being able to watch the traffic go by out the window, not leaving the apartment.

Out of curiosity, why did they do that? No US city had a lockdown that prohibited going outside to that extent.

[Author]

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