Derby Hill in CV???

[Arraya]

Justbought,

Public records give no indication of type of loan. Probably the best indicator of potential distress is how much they financed. If the did not put money down there is no cusion if the have to sell. You can check zillow.com for that.

I take it you are watching your neighborhood for potential value drops due to distressed homeowners. If that is the case check all the homes for sale, see if the financed 100% in the past 3 years. If they did there could be problems.

[justbought]

thanks arraya, but zillow is no help; i think the neighborhood is too new and don’t show up… does public record show how much people financed?

[justbought]

thanks arraya, but zillow is no help; i think the neighborhood is too new and don’t show up… does public record show how much people financed?

[justbought]

thanks arraya, but zillow is no help; i think the neighborhood is too new and don’t show up… does public record show how much people financed?

[an]

Alex, I don’t think anyone is arguing that price will never go back to today’s level some day. The only question is when. I know people who bought at the peak of the last bubble and it took 10 years for it to return to the same price level and that didn’t take inflation into consideration. Who knows how long it will take, this time around, to get back to 2005 level.

[an]

Alex, I don’t think anyone is arguing that price will never go back to today’s level some day. The only question is when. I know people who bought at the peak of the last bubble and it took 10 years for it to return to the same price level and that didn’t take inflation into consideration. Who knows how long it will take, this time around, to get back to 2005 level.

[an]

Alex, I don’t think anyone is arguing that price will never go back to today’s level some day. The only question is when. I know people who bought at the peak of the last bubble and it took 10 years for it to return to the same price level and that didn’t take inflation into consideration. Who knows how long it will take, this time around, to get back to 2005 level.

[Alex_angel]

asiannautica, we will have to wait for the bottom to then determine how far off of highs we will be. IF over the enxt 3 years there is only a 10-20% dip then getting back to the 05 prices will happen fast, now if there is a 50% correction then you’re right, it might be 10 more years before we get back to 2005

[Alex_angel]

asiannautica, we will have to wait for the bottom to then determine how far off of highs we will be. IF over the enxt 3 years there is only a 10-20% dip then getting back to the 05 prices will happen fast, now if there is a 50% correction then you’re right, it might be 10 more years before we get back to 2005

[Alex_angel]

asiannautica, we will have to wait for the bottom to then determine how far off of highs we will be. IF over the enxt 3 years there is only a 10-20% dip then getting back to the 05 prices will happen fast, now if there is a 50% correction then you’re right, it might be 10 more years before we get back to 2005

[an]

I don’t see your logic Alex. The last time around, price only drop about 20-25% from peak and it took 10 years to get back to peak price. Also, the last peak was only 15-20% over value. Just take a look at Rich’s primer charts and you’ll see it’ll take awhile for inflation to catch up to 2005 price. We can have a 50% drop and bounce back hard for a 10-20% drop and stay there for 10-15 years, who knows how this will play out. Only time will tell. But looking back at historical prices vs inflation since the 1970s, RE price always traces inflation.

[an]

I don’t see your logic Alex. The last time around, price only drop about 20-25% from peak and it took 10 years to get back to peak price. Also, the last peak was only 15-20% over value. Just take a look at Rich’s primer charts and you’ll see it’ll take awhile for inflation to catch up to 2005 price. We can have a 50% drop and bounce back hard for a 10-20% drop and stay there for 10-15 years, who knows how this will play out. Only time will tell. But looking back at historical prices vs inflation since the 1970s, RE price always traces inflation.

[an]

I don’t see your logic Alex. The last time around, price only drop about 20-25% from peak and it took 10 years to get back to peak price. Also, the last peak was only 15-20% over value. Just take a look at Rich’s primer charts and you’ll see it’ll take awhile for inflation to catch up to 2005 price. We can have a 50% drop and bounce back hard for a 10-20% drop and stay there for 10-15 years, who knows how this will play out. Only time will tell. But looking back at historical prices vs inflation since the 1970s, RE price always traces inflation.

[SD Realtor]

Alex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.

Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….

I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.

Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.

Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….

I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.

Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?

SD Realtor

[Author]

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