Coronado Market Predictions

[gandalf]

Discussion with a good friend of mine this weekend, long-time broker / RE professional in La Jolla. We were speculating (in a good way, of course), what’s happening in Coronado? When does the slowdown hit the Village in earnest? Lots of anecdotes, but alas, just anecdotes. Does Coronado get hammered like everywhere else? Does it escape with only scrapes and bruises? Any thoughts? Insights?

[Shadowfax]

Quite a few “For Sale” and “For Rent” signs out there…

[Shadowfax]

Quite a few “For Sale” and “For Rent” signs out there…

[Shadowfax]

Quite a few “For Sale” and “For Rent” signs out there…

[Shadowfax]

Quite a few “For Sale” and “For Rent” signs out there…

[Shadowfax]

Quite a few “For Sale” and “For Rent” signs out there…

[Akula1992]

I have been tracking this market from the confines of the East Coast and all I really have is anecdotal data – which is to say that I have no real data. I have two friends that own houses in the village section and both are trying to sell but neither have had any luck. Both have lowered their asking prices between 15 and 20% and both houses appear to be fairly priced but(for an SFR). I suppose we will just have to see.

IIRC, I read elsewhere that during the last housing decline it hit Coronado just like it hit everywhere else. It just happened that this market was the last to capitulate. I expect the same thing will happen this go around as well with one reservation: The last time the slope of the curve for declines was rather shallow and lasted long enough for pretty much everyone to be shaken out. The decline this time is so steep that the duration of the down market might not be long enough to shake out all the owners that are on the edge. If a) Coronado is the last to go, and b) home prices fall so far so fast that outlying markets start recovering, it might not be enough to induce the kind of market fear in Coronado that is needed to produce the really big declines. Through a purely academic lens this is very interesting to watch.

[Akula1992]

I have been tracking this market from the confines of the East Coast and all I really have is anecdotal data – which is to say that I have no real data. I have two friends that own houses in the village section and both are trying to sell but neither have had any luck. Both have lowered their asking prices between 15 and 20% and both houses appear to be fairly priced but(for an SFR). I suppose we will just have to see.

IIRC, I read elsewhere that during the last housing decline it hit Coronado just like it hit everywhere else. It just happened that this market was the last to capitulate. I expect the same thing will happen this go around as well with one reservation: The last time the slope of the curve for declines was rather shallow and lasted long enough for pretty much everyone to be shaken out. The decline this time is so steep that the duration of the down market might not be long enough to shake out all the owners that are on the edge. If a) Coronado is the last to go, and b) home prices fall so far so fast that outlying markets start recovering, it might not be enough to induce the kind of market fear in Coronado that is needed to produce the really big declines. Through a purely academic lens this is very interesting to watch.

[Akula1992]

I have been tracking this market from the confines of the East Coast and all I really have is anecdotal data – which is to say that I have no real data. I have two friends that own houses in the village section and both are trying to sell but neither have had any luck. Both have lowered their asking prices between 15 and 20% and both houses appear to be fairly priced but(for an SFR). I suppose we will just have to see.

IIRC, I read elsewhere that during the last housing decline it hit Coronado just like it hit everywhere else. It just happened that this market was the last to capitulate. I expect the same thing will happen this go around as well with one reservation: The last time the slope of the curve for declines was rather shallow and lasted long enough for pretty much everyone to be shaken out. The decline this time is so steep that the duration of the down market might not be long enough to shake out all the owners that are on the edge. If a) Coronado is the last to go, and b) home prices fall so far so fast that outlying markets start recovering, it might not be enough to induce the kind of market fear in Coronado that is needed to produce the really big declines. Through a purely academic lens this is very interesting to watch.

[Akula1992]

I have been tracking this market from the confines of the East Coast and all I really have is anecdotal data – which is to say that I have no real data. I have two friends that own houses in the village section and both are trying to sell but neither have had any luck. Both have lowered their asking prices between 15 and 20% and both houses appear to be fairly priced but(for an SFR). I suppose we will just have to see.

IIRC, I read elsewhere that during the last housing decline it hit Coronado just like it hit everywhere else. It just happened that this market was the last to capitulate. I expect the same thing will happen this go around as well with one reservation: The last time the slope of the curve for declines was rather shallow and lasted long enough for pretty much everyone to be shaken out. The decline this time is so steep that the duration of the down market might not be long enough to shake out all the owners that are on the edge. If a) Coronado is the last to go, and b) home prices fall so far so fast that outlying markets start recovering, it might not be enough to induce the kind of market fear in Coronado that is needed to produce the really big declines. Through a purely academic lens this is very interesting to watch.

[Akula1992]

I have been tracking this market from the confines of the East Coast and all I really have is anecdotal data – which is to say that I have no real data. I have two friends that own houses in the village section and both are trying to sell but neither have had any luck. Both have lowered their asking prices between 15 and 20% and both houses appear to be fairly priced but(for an SFR). I suppose we will just have to see.

IIRC, I read elsewhere that during the last housing decline it hit Coronado just like it hit everywhere else. It just happened that this market was the last to capitulate. I expect the same thing will happen this go around as well with one reservation: The last time the slope of the curve for declines was rather shallow and lasted long enough for pretty much everyone to be shaken out. The decline this time is so steep that the duration of the down market might not be long enough to shake out all the owners that are on the edge. If a) Coronado is the last to go, and b) home prices fall so far so fast that outlying markets start recovering, it might not be enough to induce the kind of market fear in Coronado that is needed to produce the really big declines. Through a purely academic lens this is very interesting to watch.

[Raybyrnes]

Akula1992

last I heard Coronado and La Jolla were areas that went against the trend and saw increases during the last Housing bust. I have never researched this to confirm the validity.

It wouldn’t surprise me and here is why. There are a lot of officers on Coronado so they would not have been inpacted by the bust. And in La Jolla SAIC was going gang busters which in the 80′ so ther was a lot of cash flowing through the area.

[Raybyrnes]

Akula1992

last I heard Coronado and La Jolla were areas that went against the trend and saw increases during the last Housing bust. I have never researched this to confirm the validity.

It wouldn’t surprise me and here is why. There are a lot of officers on Coronado so they would not have been inpacted by the bust. And in La Jolla SAIC was going gang busters which in the 80′ so ther was a lot of cash flowing through the area.

[Raybyrnes]

Akula1992

last I heard Coronado and La Jolla were areas that went against the trend and saw increases during the last Housing bust. I have never researched this to confirm the validity.

It wouldn’t surprise me and here is why. There are a lot of officers on Coronado so they would not have been inpacted by the bust. And in La Jolla SAIC was going gang busters which in the 80′ so ther was a lot of cash flowing through the area.

[Raybyrnes]

Akula1992

last I heard Coronado and La Jolla were areas that went against the trend and saw increases during the last Housing bust. I have never researched this to confirm the validity.

It wouldn’t surprise me and here is why. There are a lot of officers on Coronado so they would not have been inpacted by the bust. And in La Jolla SAIC was going gang busters which in the 80′ so ther was a lot of cash flowing through the area.

[Author]

Posts