Coronado

[SD Realtor]

Sounds like we are all pretty much in agreement about Coronado. As I said, or I think I said, I did recently push through a pretty thorough comp search for someone who lives there and prices have indeed come down. Still even with that decrease pricing is still crazy and like each poster here has mentioned “most” residents of the island can hang on and sit it out… Lots of foolish pride as well ya know? Still I do think in the end, while the percentage decline of pricing from the high point will be non trivial.

David, while you may not have a grasp of how many purchases were made that were speculation driven, I don’t think that matters. The big unknown that we will all face in the 2010 timeframe will be how much into the A paper loan resets have we eaten into. The thing I have been struggling with lately is will we be able to chew through the big second wave that is not discussed to much, (with the exception of this site) of course.

At any rate, keep a keen eye on the volume and rate of sales on the island and you should be able to identify when it at least flattens out or alot of the risk is wrung out of the market there.

[Anonymous]

David,

Been looking myself at the Coronado area for some time. As Temecula started falling, Coronado kept rising…..wow! You can keep track, and look at histories using….

http://www.sandicor.com Go into the sales statictics tab and open the PDFs. It has all the past years and you can pull off the line items for Coronado and make yourself some spreadsheets. It might take you a little while, but them updating it regularly is just a couple minutes a month.

In the past 2 months the data shows 4 sales and 267 properties for sale on http://www.realtor.com for the 92118 zip code. (SD realtor, please correct me if im wrong there….not an expert…just a J6P airmchair quarterback here)

The inventory is just staggering and as SD R pointed out, the few sales there are, are much lower than asking prices.

Personally, i think the island is loaded with the move up crowd and I/O neg arm loans due to reset in 2010. Why? Im not sure why i think that. It just seemd that sales were pumped on the island well into the late stages of the game, and, that is when the really toxic loan products became fashionable…..and if it is anything….Coronado is fashionable. Also, foreclosures from early ARMs just dont seem to be popping up in the listings. Coronado has one of the lowest foreclosure rates of any zip code (again SD R?)

When Temecula capitulates, as it is doing at breakneck speed, and the wave spreads westward, even the battleships parked in the strand wont be able to stop the neg/arm resets and price detioration of Coronado. No one will be left in Point Loma and Pacific Beach with any equity to ‘move-up’ to a Coronado home.

It will take time. I agree. Coronado will be last in line…..but there is no way to leave the queue. At least 12 months, and probably more like 24 or 36?. Personally, i would watch Point Loma, PB and OB. They’ll drop first IMHO, and are already showing signs of cracking.

That ‘must-sell’ inventory in Coronado will arrive. Patience.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

David,

Been looking myself at the Coronado area for some time. As Temecula started falling, Coronado kept rising…..wow! You can keep track, and look at histories using….

http://www.sandicor.com Go into the sales statictics tab and open the PDFs. It has all the past years and you can pull off the line items for Coronado and make yourself some spreadsheets. It might take you a little while, but them updating it regularly is just a couple minutes a month.

In the past 2 months the data shows 4 sales and 267 properties for sale on http://www.realtor.com for the 92118 zip code. (SD realtor, please correct me if im wrong there….not an expert…just a J6P airmchair quarterback here)

The inventory is just staggering and as SD R pointed out, the few sales there are, are much lower than asking prices.

Personally, i think the island is loaded with the move up crowd and I/O neg arm loans due to reset in 2010. Why? Im not sure why i think that. It just seemd that sales were pumped on the island well into the late stages of the game, and, that is when the really toxic loan products became fashionable…..and if it is anything….Coronado is fashionable. Also, foreclosures from early ARMs just dont seem to be popping up in the listings. Coronado has one of the lowest foreclosure rates of any zip code (again SD R?)

When Temecula capitulates, as it is doing at breakneck speed, and the wave spreads westward, even the battleships parked in the strand wont be able to stop the neg/arm resets and price detioration of Coronado. No one will be left in Point Loma and Pacific Beach with any equity to ‘move-up’ to a Coronado home.

It will take time. I agree. Coronado will be last in line…..but there is no way to leave the queue. At least 12 months, and probably more like 24 or 36?. Personally, i would watch Point Loma, PB and OB. They’ll drop first IMHO, and are already showing signs of cracking.

That ‘must-sell’ inventory in Coronado will arrive. Patience.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

David,

Been looking myself at the Coronado area for some time. As Temecula started falling, Coronado kept rising…..wow! You can keep track, and look at histories using….

http://www.sandicor.com Go into the sales statictics tab and open the PDFs. It has all the past years and you can pull off the line items for Coronado and make yourself some spreadsheets. It might take you a little while, but them updating it regularly is just a couple minutes a month.

In the past 2 months the data shows 4 sales and 267 properties for sale on http://www.realtor.com for the 92118 zip code. (SD realtor, please correct me if im wrong there….not an expert…just a J6P airmchair quarterback here)

The inventory is just staggering and as SD R pointed out, the few sales there are, are much lower than asking prices.

Personally, i think the island is loaded with the move up crowd and I/O neg arm loans due to reset in 2010. Why? Im not sure why i think that. It just seemd that sales were pumped on the island well into the late stages of the game, and, that is when the really toxic loan products became fashionable…..and if it is anything….Coronado is fashionable. Also, foreclosures from early ARMs just dont seem to be popping up in the listings. Coronado has one of the lowest foreclosure rates of any zip code (again SD R?)

When Temecula capitulates, as it is doing at breakneck speed, and the wave spreads westward, even the battleships parked in the strand wont be able to stop the neg/arm resets and price detioration of Coronado. No one will be left in Point Loma and Pacific Beach with any equity to ‘move-up’ to a Coronado home.

It will take time. I agree. Coronado will be last in line…..but there is no way to leave the queue. At least 12 months, and probably more like 24 or 36?. Personally, i would watch Point Loma, PB and OB. They’ll drop first IMHO, and are already showing signs of cracking.

That ‘must-sell’ inventory in Coronado will arrive. Patience.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

David,

Been looking myself at the Coronado area for some time. As Temecula started falling, Coronado kept rising…..wow! You can keep track, and look at histories using….

http://www.sandicor.com Go into the sales statictics tab and open the PDFs. It has all the past years and you can pull off the line items for Coronado and make yourself some spreadsheets. It might take you a little while, but them updating it regularly is just a couple minutes a month.

In the past 2 months the data shows 4 sales and 267 properties for sale on http://www.realtor.com for the 92118 zip code. (SD realtor, please correct me if im wrong there….not an expert…just a J6P airmchair quarterback here)

The inventory is just staggering and as SD R pointed out, the few sales there are, are much lower than asking prices.

Personally, i think the island is loaded with the move up crowd and I/O neg arm loans due to reset in 2010. Why? Im not sure why i think that. It just seemd that sales were pumped on the island well into the late stages of the game, and, that is when the really toxic loan products became fashionable…..and if it is anything….Coronado is fashionable. Also, foreclosures from early ARMs just dont seem to be popping up in the listings. Coronado has one of the lowest foreclosure rates of any zip code (again SD R?)

When Temecula capitulates, as it is doing at breakneck speed, and the wave spreads westward, even the battleships parked in the strand wont be able to stop the neg/arm resets and price detioration of Coronado. No one will be left in Point Loma and Pacific Beach with any equity to ‘move-up’ to a Coronado home.

It will take time. I agree. Coronado will be last in line…..but there is no way to leave the queue. At least 12 months, and probably more like 24 or 36?. Personally, i would watch Point Loma, PB and OB. They’ll drop first IMHO, and are already showing signs of cracking.

That ‘must-sell’ inventory in Coronado will arrive. Patience.

Jasper

[Anonymous]

David,

Been looking myself at the Coronado area for some time. As Temecula started falling, Coronado kept rising…..wow! You can keep track, and look at histories using….

http://www.sandicor.com Go into the sales statictics tab and open the PDFs. It has all the past years and you can pull off the line items for Coronado and make yourself some spreadsheets. It might take you a little while, but them updating it regularly is just a couple minutes a month.

In the past 2 months the data shows 4 sales and 267 properties for sale on http://www.realtor.com for the 92118 zip code. (SD realtor, please correct me if im wrong there….not an expert…just a J6P airmchair quarterback here)

The inventory is just staggering and as SD R pointed out, the few sales there are, are much lower than asking prices.

Personally, i think the island is loaded with the move up crowd and I/O neg arm loans due to reset in 2010. Why? Im not sure why i think that. It just seemd that sales were pumped on the island well into the late stages of the game, and, that is when the really toxic loan products became fashionable…..and if it is anything….Coronado is fashionable. Also, foreclosures from early ARMs just dont seem to be popping up in the listings. Coronado has one of the lowest foreclosure rates of any zip code (again SD R?)

When Temecula capitulates, as it is doing at breakneck speed, and the wave spreads westward, even the battleships parked in the strand wont be able to stop the neg/arm resets and price detioration of Coronado. No one will be left in Point Loma and Pacific Beach with any equity to ‘move-up’ to a Coronado home.

It will take time. I agree. Coronado will be last in line…..but there is no way to leave the queue. At least 12 months, and probably more like 24 or 36?. Personally, i would watch Point Loma, PB and OB. They’ll drop first IMHO, and are already showing signs of cracking.

That ‘must-sell’ inventory in Coronado will arrive. Patience.

Jasper

[eagleeye]

I think there already is some must sell inventory in Coronado. At least there are some very nervous sellers at this point. A friend of mine recently met with her accountant and commented about all of the construction in progress on the island. He pointed out that many of these people would be unable to afford or secure financing after the contruction loans end. I can believe that since I just went through the $1M+ loan application process. The level of scrutiny and terms currently in place in the lending market is enough to tank this market. I started a thread about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. Spend $19 for a month of access on Melissadata.com and take a look at the sizes and terms of mortages that were taken out on purchases in the past few years in 92118. It is staggering. Couple that with a slow leak in the bubble pricing and imagine these “owners” trying to pretend it’s just the cool ocean breeze they’re feeling. I’m anxious to buy here and I was recently really tempted but I decided to continue to wait it out.

[eagleeye]

I think there already is some must sell inventory in Coronado. At least there are some very nervous sellers at this point. A friend of mine recently met with her accountant and commented about all of the construction in progress on the island. He pointed out that many of these people would be unable to afford or secure financing after the contruction loans end. I can believe that since I just went through the $1M+ loan application process. The level of scrutiny and terms currently in place in the lending market is enough to tank this market. I started a thread about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. Spend $19 for a month of access on Melissadata.com and take a look at the sizes and terms of mortages that were taken out on purchases in the past few years in 92118. It is staggering. Couple that with a slow leak in the bubble pricing and imagine these “owners” trying to pretend it’s just the cool ocean breeze they’re feeling. I’m anxious to buy here and I was recently really tempted but I decided to continue to wait it out.

[eagleeye]

I think there already is some must sell inventory in Coronado. At least there are some very nervous sellers at this point. A friend of mine recently met with her accountant and commented about all of the construction in progress on the island. He pointed out that many of these people would be unable to afford or secure financing after the contruction loans end. I can believe that since I just went through the $1M+ loan application process. The level of scrutiny and terms currently in place in the lending market is enough to tank this market. I started a thread about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. Spend $19 for a month of access on Melissadata.com and take a look at the sizes and terms of mortages that were taken out on purchases in the past few years in 92118. It is staggering. Couple that with a slow leak in the bubble pricing and imagine these “owners” trying to pretend it’s just the cool ocean breeze they’re feeling. I’m anxious to buy here and I was recently really tempted but I decided to continue to wait it out.

[eagleeye]

I think there already is some must sell inventory in Coronado. At least there are some very nervous sellers at this point. A friend of mine recently met with her accountant and commented about all of the construction in progress on the island. He pointed out that many of these people would be unable to afford or secure financing after the contruction loans end. I can believe that since I just went through the $1M+ loan application process. The level of scrutiny and terms currently in place in the lending market is enough to tank this market. I started a thread about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. Spend $19 for a month of access on Melissadata.com and take a look at the sizes and terms of mortages that were taken out on purchases in the past few years in 92118. It is staggering. Couple that with a slow leak in the bubble pricing and imagine these “owners” trying to pretend it’s just the cool ocean breeze they’re feeling. I’m anxious to buy here and I was recently really tempted but I decided to continue to wait it out.

[eagleeye]

I think there already is some must sell inventory in Coronado. At least there are some very nervous sellers at this point. A friend of mine recently met with her accountant and commented about all of the construction in progress on the island. He pointed out that many of these people would be unable to afford or secure financing after the contruction loans end. I can believe that since I just went through the $1M+ loan application process. The level of scrutiny and terms currently in place in the lending market is enough to tank this market. I started a thread about this very subject a couple of weeks ago. Spend $19 for a month of access on Melissadata.com and take a look at the sizes and terms of mortages that were taken out on purchases in the past few years in 92118. It is staggering. Couple that with a slow leak in the bubble pricing and imagine these “owners” trying to pretend it’s just the cool ocean breeze they’re feeling. I’m anxious to buy here and I was recently really tempted but I decided to continue to wait it out.

[SD Realtor]

As of today there are 197 active listings for 92118. This is for detached and attached homes. Now there are also 20 pendings which means we are at about 1 to 11 active to pending ratio. That is mighty poor my friends. Now since 1/1/08 there have been a total of 13 sold homes. Out of those 13 sales only 4 of them were for detached homes. Now in that same timeframe there have been 64 homes that are either cancelled, expired or withdrawn. Wowsers. So we are talking close to 4 out of 5 homes on the market in Coronado do not sell. (again this is for attached AND detached homes lumped together)

Anyways if you want more stats lemme know. I do think we will see Coronado go down, it will just be a bit later in the cycle.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As of today there are 197 active listings for 92118. This is for detached and attached homes. Now there are also 20 pendings which means we are at about 1 to 11 active to pending ratio. That is mighty poor my friends. Now since 1/1/08 there have been a total of 13 sold homes. Out of those 13 sales only 4 of them were for detached homes. Now in that same timeframe there have been 64 homes that are either cancelled, expired or withdrawn. Wowsers. So we are talking close to 4 out of 5 homes on the market in Coronado do not sell. (again this is for attached AND detached homes lumped together)

Anyways if you want more stats lemme know. I do think we will see Coronado go down, it will just be a bit later in the cycle.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As of today there are 197 active listings for 92118. This is for detached and attached homes. Now there are also 20 pendings which means we are at about 1 to 11 active to pending ratio. That is mighty poor my friends. Now since 1/1/08 there have been a total of 13 sold homes. Out of those 13 sales only 4 of them were for detached homes. Now in that same timeframe there have been 64 homes that are either cancelled, expired or withdrawn. Wowsers. So we are talking close to 4 out of 5 homes on the market in Coronado do not sell. (again this is for attached AND detached homes lumped together)

Anyways if you want more stats lemme know. I do think we will see Coronado go down, it will just be a bit later in the cycle.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

As of today there are 197 active listings for 92118. This is for detached and attached homes. Now there are also 20 pendings which means we are at about 1 to 11 active to pending ratio. That is mighty poor my friends. Now since 1/1/08 there have been a total of 13 sold homes. Out of those 13 sales only 4 of them were for detached homes. Now in that same timeframe there have been 64 homes that are either cancelled, expired or withdrawn. Wowsers. So we are talking close to 4 out of 5 homes on the market in Coronado do not sell. (again this is for attached AND detached homes lumped together)

Anyways if you want more stats lemme know. I do think we will see Coronado go down, it will just be a bit later in the cycle.

SD Realtor

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