Coronado

[sdrealtor]

PD
Couldnt find your original request but here goes my attempt at answering your question. These are all dettached homes.

April
Up to 1.25M – 3
1.25M to 1.7M – 1
1.7M to 2M – 1
Over 2M – 5

May
Up to 1.25M – 3
1.25M to 1.7M – 1
1.7M to 2M – 9
Over 2M – 5

Most homes seem to be closing about $100,000 below the asking price.

[PD]

Thank you for the info! Are these all single family or are condo/townhouses included?

[PD]

Thank you for the info! Are these all single family or are condo/townhouses included?

[sdrealtor]

detached

[sdrealtor]

detached

[PD]

Per realtor.com, there are 129 single family detached homes for sale right now.
Taking the average sales for April and May (which only really affects the 1.75 – 2M), I came up with the following months inventory:

Under 1.25 – 5 months inventory
1.25-1.7 – 23 months inventory
1.7 – 2M – .8 months inventory
over 2M – 17 months inventory

The results were kind of strange, so I’ll put everything under 2M together – 4.8 months

Overall, the inventory is 9.21 months.

Hmm, how can the high-end market continue to appreciate with 17 months of inventory? According to the realtor I spoke to, the high end is appreciating while the low end is depreciating. However, most of the inventory is in the high end.

[PD]

Per realtor.com, there are 129 single family detached homes for sale right now.
Taking the average sales for April and May (which only really affects the 1.75 – 2M), I came up with the following months inventory:

Under 1.25 – 5 months inventory
1.25-1.7 – 23 months inventory
1.7 – 2M – .8 months inventory
over 2M – 17 months inventory

The results were kind of strange, so I’ll put everything under 2M together – 4.8 months

Overall, the inventory is 9.21 months.

Hmm, how can the high-end market continue to appreciate with 17 months of inventory? According to the realtor I spoke to, the high end is appreciating while the low end is depreciating. However, most of the inventory is in the high end.

[SD Realtor]

PD the appreciation rate is determined by the median correct? Now common sense would dictate that with longer inventory the median should go down because those on the market longer would lower the price.

Remember though that for high end property the expectation is a much longer period on the market. Also if the property was not priced correctly to begin with, then they lower the price after being on the market several months, they still may sell and it still may pull the median up…

Maybe what this realtor told you is true… maybe not. You know that stats can always be manipulated…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

PD the appreciation rate is determined by the median correct? Now common sense would dictate that with longer inventory the median should go down because those on the market longer would lower the price.

Remember though that for high end property the expectation is a much longer period on the market. Also if the property was not priced correctly to begin with, then they lower the price after being on the market several months, they still may sell and it still may pull the median up…

Maybe what this realtor told you is true… maybe not. You know that stats can always be manipulated…

SD Realtor

[PD]

Patientrenter asked me about Coronado in another thread and I decided to move my response here as I know there are few other people who are interested in Coronado (eagle eye – are you still out there?)

Prices have come down here in the under 2M market (I don’t watch over that price so I don’t know what is happening in in the over 2M).

There is a huge supply of homes here in the 1.4m to 1.8m range. A large portion of those homes are spec homes. There are a couple of local builders who buy an old home on two lots, tear down the house and build two tall and skinny houses. There are a mess of these homes available right now and they aren’t selling very fast. I see some price reductions in the future! Prices on these homes were in the 1.75m range. Now I’m seeing them in the 1.4m – 1.5m range and the builders are advertising that the price includes design choices. I would not be at all surprised to see some of these houses close around 1.2m this fall as these builders start getting pinched (only 1 house sold in this range in both May and April but there are 28 listings -yikes!)

These builders aren’t like homeowners, they HAVE to sell and they are going to be forced to discount in order to move their inventory.

There are also a big number of new condos for sale at the north end of Orange. The prices are really high (1.5m and up). Why would anybody buy a condo that has a view of an alley for that price when they can buy a house? Apparently, they have a few in escrow but they are a little late to the party (they just had a “ribbon cutting” party about a week ago). I predict hard times ahead for the developer.

Quite a few months ago I had a conversation with someone about a friend of theirs who developed a condo building here at the end of the last cycle. The guy ended up going bankrupt and managed to convince the bank to let him live in one of the condos while the bank was repossessing the building.

It happened last time, it is going to happen again.

[PD]

Patientrenter asked me about Coronado in another thread and I decided to move my response here as I know there are few other people who are interested in Coronado (eagle eye – are you still out there?)

Prices have come down here in the under 2M market (I don’t watch over that price so I don’t know what is happening in in the over 2M).

There is a huge supply of homes here in the 1.4m to 1.8m range. A large portion of those homes are spec homes. There are a couple of local builders who buy an old home on two lots, tear down the house and build two tall and skinny houses. There are a mess of these homes available right now and they aren’t selling very fast. I see some price reductions in the future! Prices on these homes were in the 1.75m range. Now I’m seeing them in the 1.4m – 1.5m range and the builders are advertising that the price includes design choices. I would not be at all surprised to see some of these houses close around 1.2m this fall as these builders start getting pinched (only 1 house sold in this range in both May and April but there are 28 listings -yikes!)

These builders aren’t like homeowners, they HAVE to sell and they are going to be forced to discount in order to move their inventory.

There are also a big number of new condos for sale at the north end of Orange. The prices are really high (1.5m and up). Why would anybody buy a condo that has a view of an alley for that price when they can buy a house? Apparently, they have a few in escrow but they are a little late to the party (they just had a “ribbon cutting” party about a week ago). I predict hard times ahead for the developer.

Quite a few months ago I had a conversation with someone about a friend of theirs who developed a condo building here at the end of the last cycle. The guy ended up going bankrupt and managed to convince the bank to let him live in one of the condos while the bank was repossessing the building.

It happened last time, it is going to happen again.

[patientrenter]

Thanks, PD.

The Coronado SFR median price per square foot in April and May was $1000 versus less than $900 for all SFR sales in 2006. I can’t understand why it would increase by over 10%. Whenever I see hard data like that, I wonder if I am just deluding myself in my hope to see prices go down. (But I still believe they will. Problem is, I have no credibility with myself, since I was wrong in each of the prior 10 years!)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Thanks, PD.

The Coronado SFR median price per square foot in April and May was $1000 versus less than $900 for all SFR sales in 2006. I can’t understand why it would increase by over 10%. Whenever I see hard data like that, I wonder if I am just deluding myself in my hope to see prices go down. (But I still believe they will. Problem is, I have no credibility with myself, since I was wrong in each of the prior 10 years!)

Patient renter in OC

[what_a_disasta]

Have you seen this site?

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/CORONADO/552

You can view a number of interesting charts about many areas around the country.

I wonder if it could be something like this: Days on Market are way up, so people are obviously getting more choosy about houses they pick. If they are going to buy a really expensive home, it had better look and feel expensive too. So what few buyers there are, are in it for top quality homes that are worth more p/sqft than lesser quality ones.

[what_a_disasta]

Have you seen this site?

http://www.altosresearch.com/research/CA/CORONADO/552

You can view a number of interesting charts about many areas around the country.

I wonder if it could be something like this: Days on Market are way up, so people are obviously getting more choosy about houses they pick. If they are going to buy a really expensive home, it had better look and feel expensive too. So what few buyers there are, are in it for top quality homes that are worth more p/sqft than lesser quality ones.

[Author]

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