- This topic has 4 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 3 months ago by carlislematthew.
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June 30, 2006 at 2:03 PM #6795June 30, 2006 at 2:13 PM #27623CarlsbadlivingParticipant
I agree completely. Some of the arguments made on this site make it out that San Diego will turn into a ghost town. If it does, wouldn’t you be able to get a house for pretty cheap? And wouldn’t an awful lot of people want to live here if the houses were cheap? And then wouldn’t the businesses come back because of the growing population.
Before it gets to that I belive we’ll hit an equlibrium which will probably be pretty much just like 1998-2002. Fairly reasonable housing prices (albeit considerably higher than national average) and a growing population. I think we’ll look back at 2002-2006 as an absolute aberration.
July 1, 2006 at 1:47 AM #27630rankandfileParticipantThere are so many factors that need to be taken into account that it’s a moving target. I don’t think that SoCal will ever be a ghost town. But I do think that many of the positive reasons for moving/living here or opening a business here are decreasing relative to all the negative reasons. Firstly, California is not a business-friendly state. Ask any business owner. There are so many regulations and costs (ex. worker’s comp) that it’s just not as enticing as a state that cares more about employers. A good, recent example of a business leaving the San Diego area is the Buck Knife factory. They packed up and moved to Idaho (I think) because it got too expensive to operate in San Diego. I am a small business owner here and I actually incorporated my biz in Nevada. I am also considering outsourcing some of my labor elsewhere, such as India. You want to talk about educated, motivated people? India workers are some of the best and they speak English very well. No, I’m not Indian, either. As for the motivated Mexican worker, the first generation are usually highly motivated, but I have seen first hand that the next generation can become Americanized and isn’t as motivated as the first.
In terms of how population growth is affected, it all depends on the type of population you are talking about. Immigrant population can be a factor in housing because many immigrants (particularly Hispanic) that come here come from nothing and don’t have much to lose. Living in an undesirable city or town is actually an upgrade for them. You are right in that both sides of the argument can’t be argued. I made an earlier post where I hypothesized that illegal immigration will have a net increase effect on home prices. But this may not be the case if the increasing population is not able to afford the home prices here.
Who knows all the reasons why people move? The main reason is to simply make a better life, whatever that constitutes. Many middle-class Californians have (and are continuing) to leave the state for greener pastures. Businesses are doing the same. I don’t have hard numbers to back this up, but I believe it to be true. The American dream is simply more attainable and less taxing elsewhere. If the only affordable housing in SoCal is way out in the desert, why not go to Arizona or Nevada? The desert is much cheaper there.
July 3, 2006 at 3:49 AM #27686powaysellerParticipantBoth are happening. Eventually, prices will be cheap enough for those biotech and Qualcomm and surgeon positions to be filled, and people will return.
San Diego will not be a ghost town. It is a city with a negative population growth and no new business prospects. Putting us back to 2000 population figures doesn’t make us a ghost town.
Perhaps the recession and population decline will entice Sacramento to bring some business friendly regulation back to our state, and employers will start moving here. With cheaper housing prices by 2010, why not?
July 4, 2006 at 9:56 AM #27736carlislematthewParticipantPerhaps the recession and population decline will entice Sacramento to bring some business friendly regulation back to our state, and employers will start moving here. With cheaper housing prices by 2010, why not?
I hope you’re right!! If I was starting a business, I wouldn’t do it in CA right now.
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