China

[Myriad]

hah…
Only skimmed the paper so far – academic vs political commentary so interesting from an economics perspective.
Basically, the Chinese have lent to certain countries using opaque terms, other countries have more transparent terms. Generally based on their level of per capita income/level of development.
One interesting item is that China was concerned about how certain countries would use the funds and was loathe to distribute funds directly. Instead they would distribute to Chinese companies. Other items was that the level of debt is probably understated and that financial institutions should re-evaluate the credit worthiness of developing country debt.

Maybe distributing $Ts of funds to countries with high corruption is better than $Ts in fighting in Iraq and Afganistan. On the other hand, you might just trade western type corruption/waste in Africa for Chinese type corruption/waste. Wouldn’t surprise me if Chinese investment ends up being as useless as western investment in Africa.

[FlyerInHi]

I believe in good old American “put up or shut up.” In other words, the US should put up $2 of development money for each $1 in Chinese money. The world would be a better place.

Myriad, from what I see, the Chinese are paying Chinese companies to build infrastructure. It’s a way to export technology and improve knowhow. Maybe it’s not most altruistic but things do get built. And as the economies grow, the countries turn around and buy cheap Chinese electronics and household product. Laos is a good example where a HSR is being built.

We do the same thing. We send $billions to Israel and they buy US military hardware. US development aid goes to US companies. Flying US consultants and engineers back and forth on business class uses a lot of the funds. At least the Chinese get train lines and bridges built (they send in their people, setup container villages and get to work, pronto).

One problem with us is that we don’t have anything but big food to sell to developing countries. Big food poisons their populations and bankrupt their farmers.

Bank of America (and many other banks) nearly when bankrupt in the 80s when Latin America threatened to default. IMF loans saved the banks, US shareholders and pensioners. And the people of Latin America paid in years of austerity, the legacy is which is still felt today. We have already seen what debt trap looks like.

[FlyerInHi]

I am not saying this is good or bad. But I suggest we examine why instead of all talk, no action coming from the USA.

The US plays a diplomatic game too. At one time most countries in the world recognized Taiwan. When the US switched to China, the US wanted it’s cake and eat it too. We could always count on the UN to pressure China, or we would switch back, with overwhelming UN support, if needed. That option is now gone.

And why is it that the Dominican and El Salvador switched to China despite strong protests from Washington, despite being in our sphere of influence, despite all the money and business we send them?

BEIJING — The Chinese government scored a fresh diplomatic coup Monday over Taiwan and the United States after the Solomon Islands, a strategically significant archipelago in the Pacific Ocean, severed ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.

The island nation’s defection whittled the number of countries that recognize Taiwan down to just 16 after Beijing flipped key allies, including the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, in recent years over objections from Washington.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/solomon-islands-recognizes-beijing-as-diplomatic-stranglehold-tightens-around-taiwan/2019/09/16/615520bc-d867-11e9-a1a5-162b8a9c9ca2_story.html?noredirect=on

[FlyerInHi]

There will be an awesome military parade next week.
Trump would approve and be red with envy. I will be watching on CGTN (YouTube ).

Chinese leaders can’t control the weather for their big 70-year bash. But they’re still trying.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-leaders-cant-control-the-weather-for-their-big-70-year-bash-but-theyre-still-trying/2019/09/27/85b3f9da-dfc2-11e9-be7f-4cc85017c36f_story.html

[FlyerInHi]

Wow, the luxury hotel market in China is booming led by millennials.
UNLV is now the top US university for hospitality (ahead of Cornell). More Chinese students and a great opportunity for education “exports”.

[The-Shoveler]

LOL looks like a great way to “burn” money, but to each their own.

I think as you get a little older you take a more zen approach to FOMO.

You’ve seen it once before and you realize at some point you don’t need to keep experiencing things over and over.

[FlyerInHi]

I agree with you on an individual level. But FOMO is great for the economy, otherwise you run into the paradox of thrift. Young people who wheel and deal, make and spend money, are the people who create new wealth and enlarge the pie for everyone.

We, Americans, used to be that way, late 19th century and turn of the 20th century. Imagine all the new grand infrastructure we built — infrastructure that were over the top at the beginning, but fulfilled their promises and became icons. People came to marvel, experience and demand more and more.

[FlyerInHi]

So in the middle of corona virus crisis, the Philippines ends the Vistting
Forces Agreement with the US. Any press coverage and analysis on American media?

Why, oh why? Shocking. The Phillipines, our most reliable and subservient ally in Asia!
Chinese builders are redeveloping Clark and Subic.
It not China, it’s us. We need to up our games if we want friends and partners.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the-significance-of-ending-the-us-philippines-visiting-forces-agreement/

[FlyerInHi]

So I read John Mearsheimer’s book just for fun. And I watched some of his lectures. He’s a famous political scientist and he has been proven right on Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran.

John Mearsheimer says that the USA is now the super power in a uni-polar world (since 1991). However, we are moving to a multi polar world with the comeback of Russia and the rise of China (Russia being insignificant but can play the role of spoiler).
As the biggest gorilla (he does use those words) the USA cannot countenance the rise of a rival. That’s just what baddass gorillas do. Ideology does not matter. Even if China were democratic, the result would be the same.

As a super power, the USA will try to stop the rise China, which means containing China rather than engaging China. The US is powerful enough to do the upmost to stop the rise of China. As for China, it’s just natural for China to want its own Monroe doctrine for the Pacific.

The US now needs a containment coalition. TPP was part of that coalition but the US led its partners down the primrose path.

John Mearsheimer does not say how the US will achieve its goals.
I am all for trying to contain China, but in order to do so, we must do better than China. That means offering a new Marshall plan and a free trade deal for Asia, much bigger than what China has to offer. Deeds, not words.

BTW, Hugh White of Australia thinks the US will lose the geopolitical competition and that the US will withdraw from Asia. That’s why Australia needs a neutral foreign policy a new military to defend itself.

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