Case shiller on zip code basis

[XBoxBoy]

So, since Case Shiller is coming up this week, I’m wondering does anyone know if Case-Shiller takes into account home improvements?

For instance if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house? Or will Case-Shiller exclude this house because it is no longer the same thing?

If Case Shiller does not adjust for improvements, then it is going to overestimate the price increase, and under estimate the price decreases. If they do adjust for improvements, how do they do that as there would be many different cases and scenarios that would need to be adjusted for.

XBoxBoy

[Eugene]

I’m assuming that it’s not THE Case-Shiller algorithm, as that must be proprietary stuff,

Here’s a good description of their algorithm. It’s missing some implementation details but it’s almost complete.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house?

They exclude houses with substantial physical changes if they can detect them in deed records. They also try to detect “unusual” price changes and either exclude them or assign lower weights to them.

[Eugene]

I’m assuming that it’s not THE Case-Shiller algorithm, as that must be proprietary stuff,

Here’s a good description of their algorithm. It’s missing some implementation details but it’s almost complete.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house?

They exclude houses with substantial physical changes if they can detect them in deed records. They also try to detect “unusual” price changes and either exclude them or assign lower weights to them.

[Eugene]

I’m assuming that it’s not THE Case-Shiller algorithm, as that must be proprietary stuff,

Here’s a good description of their algorithm. It’s missing some implementation details but it’s almost complete.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house?

They exclude houses with substantial physical changes if they can detect them in deed records. They also try to detect “unusual” price changes and either exclude them or assign lower weights to them.

[Eugene]

I’m assuming that it’s not THE Case-Shiller algorithm, as that must be proprietary stuff,

Here’s a good description of their algorithm. It’s missing some implementation details but it’s almost complete.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house?

They exclude houses with substantial physical changes if they can detect them in deed records. They also try to detect “unusual” price changes and either exclude them or assign lower weights to them.

[Eugene]

I’m assuming that it’s not THE Case-Shiller algorithm, as that must be proprietary stuff,

Here’s a good description of their algorithm. It’s missing some implementation details but it’s almost complete.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

if I buy a crummy little house in bird rock, for a million, tear it down and build a much bigger house and sell it for two million, will Case Shiller report a 100% price increase on this house?

They exclude houses with substantial physical changes if they can detect them in deed records. They also try to detect “unusual” price changes and either exclude them or assign lower weights to them.

[Eugene]

Chleaned up my data and made some graphs.

First, a consistency check (making sure my numbers are roughly the same as official Case-Shiller).

[img_assist|nid=5965|title=Consistency Check|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

Not a perfect match but good enough. There are too many implementation subtleties and my data is lower quality, so I can’t hope for a perfect match.

Notice that I have two more points. Official Case-Shiller numbers for October are based on sales in August through October. I also have data for November.

Next, regional graphs.

[img_assist|nid=5968|title=Regional HPI – 07/11|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=306]

Coastal areas are almost at the peak levels. November blip is probably seasonal. From Coronado to CV to Carlsbad, bubble denial is still strong.

Affluent north county inland neighborhoods are still holding. Middle-class and Mexican zip codes are in free fall.

Finally a quick look at specific resales, to see what kinds of transactions contibute to apparent 27% decline south of 94.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-37101EFF-3242_San_Carlos_Dr_Spring_Valley_CA_91978
Bought in June ’05 for 595k (2% off the peak), sold for 460k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-439233E6-1332_Santa_Cora_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91913
Bought in 11/2003 for 442k (31% off the peak), sold for 440k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-27FBE78D-9252_Brookside_Cir_Spring_Valley_CA_91977
Bought in Sep ’05 for 650k (1% off the peak), sold for 422k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-A586DFE8-3643_Byrd_St_San_Diego_CA_92154
Bought in Dec ’03 for 351k (28% off the peak), sold for 307k

[Eugene]

Chleaned up my data and made some graphs.

First, a consistency check (making sure my numbers are roughly the same as official Case-Shiller).

[img_assist|nid=5965|title=Consistency Check|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

Not a perfect match but good enough. There are too many implementation subtleties and my data is lower quality, so I can’t hope for a perfect match.

Notice that I have two more points. Official Case-Shiller numbers for October are based on sales in August through October. I also have data for November.

Next, regional graphs.

[img_assist|nid=5968|title=Regional HPI – 07/11|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=306]

Coastal areas are almost at the peak levels. November blip is probably seasonal. From Coronado to CV to Carlsbad, bubble denial is still strong.

Affluent north county inland neighborhoods are still holding. Middle-class and Mexican zip codes are in free fall.

Finally a quick look at specific resales, to see what kinds of transactions contibute to apparent 27% decline south of 94.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-37101EFF-3242_San_Carlos_Dr_Spring_Valley_CA_91978
Bought in June ’05 for 595k (2% off the peak), sold for 460k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-439233E6-1332_Santa_Cora_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91913
Bought in 11/2003 for 442k (31% off the peak), sold for 440k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-27FBE78D-9252_Brookside_Cir_Spring_Valley_CA_91977
Bought in Sep ’05 for 650k (1% off the peak), sold for 422k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-A586DFE8-3643_Byrd_St_San_Diego_CA_92154
Bought in Dec ’03 for 351k (28% off the peak), sold for 307k

[Eugene]

Chleaned up my data and made some graphs.

First, a consistency check (making sure my numbers are roughly the same as official Case-Shiller).

[img_assist|nid=5965|title=Consistency Check|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

Not a perfect match but good enough. There are too many implementation subtleties and my data is lower quality, so I can’t hope for a perfect match.

Notice that I have two more points. Official Case-Shiller numbers for October are based on sales in August through October. I also have data for November.

Next, regional graphs.

[img_assist|nid=5968|title=Regional HPI – 07/11|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=306]

Coastal areas are almost at the peak levels. November blip is probably seasonal. From Coronado to CV to Carlsbad, bubble denial is still strong.

Affluent north county inland neighborhoods are still holding. Middle-class and Mexican zip codes are in free fall.

Finally a quick look at specific resales, to see what kinds of transactions contibute to apparent 27% decline south of 94.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-37101EFF-3242_San_Carlos_Dr_Spring_Valley_CA_91978
Bought in June ’05 for 595k (2% off the peak), sold for 460k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-439233E6-1332_Santa_Cora_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91913
Bought in 11/2003 for 442k (31% off the peak), sold for 440k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-27FBE78D-9252_Brookside_Cir_Spring_Valley_CA_91977
Bought in Sep ’05 for 650k (1% off the peak), sold for 422k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-A586DFE8-3643_Byrd_St_San_Diego_CA_92154
Bought in Dec ’03 for 351k (28% off the peak), sold for 307k

[Eugene]

Chleaned up my data and made some graphs.

First, a consistency check (making sure my numbers are roughly the same as official Case-Shiller).

[img_assist|nid=5965|title=Consistency Check|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

Not a perfect match but good enough. There are too many implementation subtleties and my data is lower quality, so I can’t hope for a perfect match.

Notice that I have two more points. Official Case-Shiller numbers for October are based on sales in August through October. I also have data for November.

Next, regional graphs.

[img_assist|nid=5968|title=Regional HPI – 07/11|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=306]

Coastal areas are almost at the peak levels. November blip is probably seasonal. From Coronado to CV to Carlsbad, bubble denial is still strong.

Affluent north county inland neighborhoods are still holding. Middle-class and Mexican zip codes are in free fall.

Finally a quick look at specific resales, to see what kinds of transactions contibute to apparent 27% decline south of 94.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-37101EFF-3242_San_Carlos_Dr_Spring_Valley_CA_91978
Bought in June ’05 for 595k (2% off the peak), sold for 460k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-439233E6-1332_Santa_Cora_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91913
Bought in 11/2003 for 442k (31% off the peak), sold for 440k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-27FBE78D-9252_Brookside_Cir_Spring_Valley_CA_91977
Bought in Sep ’05 for 650k (1% off the peak), sold for 422k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-A586DFE8-3643_Byrd_St_San_Diego_CA_92154
Bought in Dec ’03 for 351k (28% off the peak), sold for 307k

[Eugene]

Chleaned up my data and made some graphs.

First, a consistency check (making sure my numbers are roughly the same as official Case-Shiller).

[img_assist|nid=5965|title=Consistency Check|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=336]

Not a perfect match but good enough. There are too many implementation subtleties and my data is lower quality, so I can’t hope for a perfect match.

Notice that I have two more points. Official Case-Shiller numbers for October are based on sales in August through October. I also have data for November.

Next, regional graphs.

[img_assist|nid=5968|title=Regional HPI – 07/11|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=306]

Coastal areas are almost at the peak levels. November blip is probably seasonal. From Coronado to CV to Carlsbad, bubble denial is still strong.

Affluent north county inland neighborhoods are still holding. Middle-class and Mexican zip codes are in free fall.

Finally a quick look at specific resales, to see what kinds of transactions contibute to apparent 27% decline south of 94.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-37101EFF-3242_San_Carlos_Dr_Spring_Valley_CA_91978
Bought in June ’05 for 595k (2% off the peak), sold for 460k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-439233E6-1332_Santa_Cora_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91913
Bought in 11/2003 for 442k (31% off the peak), sold for 440k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-27FBE78D-9252_Brookside_Cir_Spring_Valley_CA_91977
Bought in Sep ’05 for 650k (1% off the peak), sold for 422k

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-A586DFE8-3643_Byrd_St_San_Diego_CA_92154
Bought in Dec ’03 for 351k (28% off the peak), sold for 307k

[paranoid]

esmith,

this is great stuff. For local people watching the local market, this info is really useful.

is there a way to see a bigger graph?

Aslo please update the graph regularly so that we know what’s going on in real-time.

thanks again.

[paranoid]

esmith,

this is great stuff. For local people watching the local market, this info is really useful.

is there a way to see a bigger graph?

Aslo please update the graph regularly so that we know what’s going on in real-time.

thanks again.

[paranoid]

esmith,

this is great stuff. For local people watching the local market, this info is really useful.

is there a way to see a bigger graph?

Aslo please update the graph regularly so that we know what’s going on in real-time.

thanks again.

[paranoid]

esmith,

this is great stuff. For local people watching the local market, this info is really useful.

is there a way to see a bigger graph?

Aslo please update the graph regularly so that we know what’s going on in real-time.

thanks again.

[Author]

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