Carmel Valley Monitor

[Anonymous]

New_Renter

I think you’ve got the LJ analysis down pretty good. I have a GF whose family is ranch-size wealthy who own an old 4Br on the sand just yards north of Wind and Sea beach. They go there maybe twice a year and the place looks like it was last re-modeled in the 50’s. They don’t even bother to rent it out (I tried!) and they would never consider selling it. It makes absolutely no difference to them if it’s worth 5 million or 50 million (or $500,000, Ha!) The point is, as you said, is there are a very few properties in LJ that are in fact immune to the bubble frenzy for the reasons you stated. I think you’ll see Beverly Hills tanking before it hits the few good ones in LJ. Now, on the other hand, condos in LJ and some of the lesser quality houses, I think, could very well and probably will go down in the mortgage reset massacre scheduled for this year and next. Just how far is the big question.

[sdrealtor]

5/15 to 5/22

new listings – 26
back on market – 6 (2 fell out of escrow, rest were temp off market)

Total growth in inventory – 32

pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 0
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 16

Net change in inventory – plus 16

Probably the biggest surge in inventory I’ve seen in a while there with lots in the 800’s and 900’s added to the mix.

[sdrealtor]

5/15 to 5/22

new listings – 26
back on market – 6 (2 fell out of escrow, rest were temp off market)

Total growth in inventory – 32

pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 0
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 16

Net change in inventory – plus 16

Probably the biggest surge in inventory I’ve seen in a while there with lots in the 800’s and 900’s added to the mix.

[sdrealtor]

One last thing. I started tracking CV last August on a weekly basis. On 8/14/06 there were 298 SFR on the market in 92130. Today there are 158.

[sdrealtor]

One last thing. I started tracking CV last August on a weekly basis. On 8/14/06 there were 298 SFR on the market in 92130. Today there are 158.

[Anonymous]

La Jolla is going down in price already:

[img_assist|nid=3493|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=267]

The median price for a resale home in La Jolla peaked at $2,356K in May ’06. The median price for a resale home in La Jolla in Apr. ’07 was down to $1,547K.

I’m thinking of opening up a soup kitchen at my modest La Jolla rental home; sure seems like the folks in my neighborhood need cheering up.

Things have only started to move south, and already La Jolla is down 34% from peak. It’s going to be a long, tough one, folks.

[Anonymous]

La Jolla is going down in price already:

[img_assist|nid=3493|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=267]

The median price for a resale home in La Jolla peaked at $2,356K in May ’06. The median price for a resale home in La Jolla in Apr. ’07 was down to $1,547K.

I’m thinking of opening up a soup kitchen at my modest La Jolla rental home; sure seems like the folks in my neighborhood need cheering up.

Things have only started to move south, and already La Jolla is down 34% from peak. It’s going to be a long, tough one, folks.

[Anonymous]

Better graph:

[img_assist|nid=3494|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

“Don’t cry for me, Argentina.”

[Anonymous]

Better graph:

[img_assist|nid=3494|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

“Don’t cry for me, Argentina.”

[Artifact]

I have been making the plots for the short sale monitor – looking at sdrealtor’s data here I am trying to think of an entertaining way to present this data as well –

sdrealtor – in addition to the additions/subtractions, can you post the total listings/actives? I suppose if I have even one weeks numbers of that I can work from there.

[Artifact]

I have been making the plots for the short sale monitor – looking at sdrealtor’s data here I am trying to think of an entertaining way to present this data as well –

sdrealtor – in addition to the additions/subtractions, can you post the total listings/actives? I suppose if I have even one weeks numbers of that I can work from there.

[sdappraiser]

JG,

Wow, awesome analysis.. Do you think it’s possible that the peak in the May 2006 median might have had something to do with the $17,750,000 sale that closed on 6/22/2006, which also happens to be the 4th highest price point sale in la jolla recorded in the MLS. It also happens to be 50% higher than the next highest sale that year which closed in April 2006 for $11,750,000.

It’s called a blip, I think your data needs smoothing. After the countless threads here regarding reporting median prices, have you learned nothing? Median price analysis is even less meaningful in an area like la jolla where price points are all over the place.

Are you using this same level of expert analysis with your stock trades? Ouch.

[sdappraiser]

JG,

Wow, awesome analysis.. Do you think it’s possible that the peak in the May 2006 median might have had something to do with the $17,750,000 sale that closed on 6/22/2006, which also happens to be the 4th highest price point sale in la jolla recorded in the MLS. It also happens to be 50% higher than the next highest sale that year which closed in April 2006 for $11,750,000.

It’s called a blip, I think your data needs smoothing. After the countless threads here regarding reporting median prices, have you learned nothing? Median price analysis is even less meaningful in an area like la jolla where price points are all over the place.

Are you using this same level of expert analysis with your stock trades? Ouch.

[sdcellar]

SDAppraiser– One of the main things median does “well” is factor out any extreme numbers at the top and bottom of the series, so the 17 million dollar sale should have no little or no effect on the number.

There may be flaws with median prices, but this isn’t one of them.

Ouch.

[sdcellar]

SDAppraiser– One of the main things median does “well” is factor out any extreme numbers at the top and bottom of the series, so the 17 million dollar sale should have no little or no effect on the number.

There may be flaws with median prices, but this isn’t one of them.

Ouch.

[Author]

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