- This topic has 588 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 5 months ago by
Aecetia.
-
AuthorPosts
-
May 23, 2007 at 4:50 PM #54516May 23, 2007 at 5:00 PM #54578
Anonymous
GuestSDA, the DataQuick data has two data points for each month: median price for resale homes for the month and number of sales for the month. No computing by me (although I am quite facile with statistics), just graphing by me.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtm
You can go put your head back in the sand, now.
I expect that shirtless throngs will begin plowing the fair streets of La Jolla, seeking the comfort of soup and a willing ear, in a few years. Right now, they are just grinning and bearing it, and pour themselves another gin and tonic.
May 23, 2007 at 5:00 PM #54593GuestSDA, the DataQuick data has two data points for each month: median price for resale homes for the month and number of sales for the month. No computing by me (although I am quite facile with statistics), just graphing by me.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtm
You can go put your head back in the sand, now.
I expect that shirtless throngs will begin plowing the fair streets of La Jolla, seeking the comfort of soup and a willing ear, in a few years. Right now, they are just grinning and bearing it, and pour themselves another gin and tonic.
May 23, 2007 at 5:10 PM #54582Artifact
ParticipantNow that plot is funny – but thinking about it, since the data are from La Jolla, I should have expected to have that type of “uneven” shape!
May 23, 2007 at 5:10 PM #54597ParticipantNow that plot is funny – but thinking about it, since the data are from La Jolla, I should have expected to have that type of “uneven” shape!
May 23, 2007 at 5:10 PM #54572sdappraiser
Participant[img_assist|nid=3502|title=92037|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=496]
May 23, 2007 at 5:10 PM #54586Participant[img_assist|nid=3502|title=92037|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=496]
May 23, 2007 at 5:17 PM #54584GuestSDA, if you need help with the arithmetic on your appraisals — I think that you must, if you think that an $18MM sale will affect the MEDIAN, which consists of ~40 sales for the month — please drop a line.
Also, please ensure that your ‘errors and omissions’ liability coverage remains in force. You may want to consider upping its limit, too.
Artifact, I wish that I had access to the raw data, because I agree with you that more revealing numbers/statistics could be teased out.
May 23, 2007 at 5:17 PM #54599GuestSDA, if you need help with the arithmetic on your appraisals — I think that you must, if you think that an $18MM sale will affect the MEDIAN, which consists of ~40 sales for the month — please drop a line.
Also, please ensure that your ‘errors and omissions’ liability coverage remains in force. You may want to consider upping its limit, too.
Artifact, I wish that I had access to the raw data, because I agree with you that more revealing numbers/statistics could be teased out.
May 24, 2007 at 2:13 PM #54844(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantSDA – Are you working on the side as a graphic artist for powayseller ?
May 24, 2007 at 2:13 PM #54859ParticipantSDA – Are you working on the side as a graphic artist for powayseller ?
May 24, 2007 at 2:50 PM #54860Participantjg – I agree with your point that a single sale does not affect the median much. But, I have a problem with citing a 34% decline from monthly data. It is a bit of exaggeration because the monthly figures are so noisy.
Your original point of a decline happening is true in these data, but taking a one-month peak is either naive or disingenuous. The press does this all the time and we rail on them for it.
Monthly zip code reports are very noisy. In this case the monthly fluctuations have been on the order of 200-500K for this zip code for the past 18 months. With this much noise, the confidence in a 300K drop is small.
For example from October 2005 to May 2006 the median La Jolla Price INCREASED by 59 %. 59 % WOW !
Could you imagine the response on this board to a headline about a year ago that said La Jolla prices are up 59% in 7 months, a huge Spring rally for La Jolla.If we average over longer time frames, the noise of the estimate is reduced. If you average the last few months and compare it to say 2005-2006, it appears that prices have dropped from about 1.8-1.9 M to about 1.5 M, about a 15-20% drop.
20% is a significant drop. Why exaggerate ?
May 24, 2007 at 2:50 PM #54874Participantjg – I agree with your point that a single sale does not affect the median much. But, I have a problem with citing a 34% decline from monthly data. It is a bit of exaggeration because the monthly figures are so noisy.
Your original point of a decline happening is true in these data, but taking a one-month peak is either naive or disingenuous. The press does this all the time and we rail on them for it.
Monthly zip code reports are very noisy. In this case the monthly fluctuations have been on the order of 200-500K for this zip code for the past 18 months. With this much noise, the confidence in a 300K drop is small.
For example from October 2005 to May 2006 the median La Jolla Price INCREASED by 59 %. 59 % WOW !
Could you imagine the response on this board to a headline about a year ago that said La Jolla prices are up 59% in 7 months, a huge Spring rally for La Jolla.If we average over longer time frames, the noise of the estimate is reduced. If you average the last few months and compare it to say 2005-2006, it appears that prices have dropped from about 1.8-1.9 M to about 1.5 M, about a 15-20% drop.
20% is a significant drop. Why exaggerate ?
May 24, 2007 at 3:58 PM #54878sdcellar
ParticipantI’m under the impression that jg really gets this completely and is just screwing with us.
It’s so hard to tell with written communication sometimes. I know I’m (mostly) always just giving folks a good natured hard time, but I’ll bet others can’t always tell so easily.
I agree with you though. If anyone is truly serious with such hand picked down trend numbers, they should be prepared to be as skewered as the bull spinmeisters. jg’s skin seems thick enough either way…
May 24, 2007 at 3:58 PM #54892ParticipantI’m under the impression that jg really gets this completely and is just screwing with us.
It’s so hard to tell with written communication sometimes. I know I’m (mostly) always just giving folks a good natured hard time, but I’ll bet others can’t always tell so easily.
I agree with you though. If anyone is truly serious with such hand picked down trend numbers, they should be prepared to be as skewered as the bull spinmeisters. jg’s skin seems thick enough either way…
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.