CA Shadow Inventory

[Arraya]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=Arraya]

Should we not look at these trends and extrapolate out? That is the wise thing to do?
[/quote]

Sure, we should look at all those trends.

For example in 2004-2005 if one used current trends to extrapolate where the housing market and jobs were headed (extremely low unemployment, prices rising) one could have gotten themselves into a bit of trouble.

Shadow inventory is to bears what pent-up demand is to bulls. Both are loosely defined concept which have some truth to them but are impossible to measure.

If one wants to cite shadow inventory as a force on the markets they should be forced to address the potential of pent-up demand.[/quote]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is

[waiting hawk]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

[/quote]

I always thought of us as the shadow people. The people no one ever cared about or ever helped.

[waiting hawk]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

[/quote]

I always thought of us as the shadow people. The people no one ever cared about or ever helped.

[waiting hawk]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

[/quote]

I always thought of us as the shadow people. The people no one ever cared about or ever helped.

[waiting hawk]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

[/quote]

I always thought of us as the shadow people. The people no one ever cared about or ever helped.

[waiting hawk]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

[/quote]

I always thought of us as the shadow people. The people no one ever cared about or ever helped.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Arraya]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]

Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.

If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.

My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Arraya]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]

Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.

If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.

My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Arraya]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]

Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.

If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.

My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Arraya]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]

Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.

If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.

My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=Arraya]

Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]

Actually, despite record unemployment and the other factors you mentioned, demand was significantly higher in 2009 than the preceding two years, due to a huge improvement in affordability.

If I integrate in my common sense that in some places it might be cheaper to own than rent, I see a limit to pricing downside. Granted, as rents slide (impacted by employment) this downside bar may slide lower.

My posts here reflect being fed up by shadow inventory zealots (not saying you are one, since you did point out at least some factors affecting demand) tend to leave out, forget or otherwise ignore the other side of the supply-demand relationship.

[an]

[quote=Arraya]
Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]
Since you’re talking about integrating common sense, are you assuming the current rate of job contraction is the new normal?

[an]

[quote=Arraya]
Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]
Since you’re talking about integrating common sense, are you assuming the current rate of job contraction is the new normal?

[an]

[quote=Arraya]
Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]
Since you’re talking about integrating common sense, are you assuming the current rate of job contraction is the new normal?

[an]

[quote=Arraya]
Sometimes you have to integrate common sense with analysis. The housing bubble fueled employment. It was not unpredictable that employment would plummet as the bubble did. The bubble was the economy.

Pent up demand depends on job growth. Unless you count demand as somebody that wants to buy a house and can’t you have a problem. Sideline money is dwindling + job contraction=Lower demand

Lower demand + pent up inventory =

See how easy this is[/quote]
Since you’re talking about integrating common sense, are you assuming the current rate of job contraction is the new normal?

[Author]

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