CA Shadow Inventory

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Shadow people have to live somewhere right ???

Anyway Google is hiring , says the worst of recession is over.

Maybe they will hire shadow people as well.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=analyst]The phrase “shadow inventory” came into existence to describe quantities of properties which were expected to appear as listings for sale, but, for some reason, did not.

In that context, there is no difference between any of the following:
1. REO not listed for sale
2. NOT, sale postponed, no short sale in progress
3. NOD, NOT not issued, no short sale in progress
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress
[/quote]

Inventory numbers by themselves are meaningless. One needs to also consider the demand side.

For example, if the inventory is 10,000 homes and 15,000 sell in a year that is one thing. If 500 sell in a year it’s a completely different story.

So, in that spirit we should start tracking shadow demand. These would be those who will buy in the future but are not current buyers in the market. Current (real buyers) are known from the sales numbers. Shadow buyers would include the following:

1. Those making offers but not getting the house due to competition.
2. Those trolling around realty web sites, saving up down payments for a purchase 12-18 months from now. (these buyers will be ready to purchase about the time those properties in shadow category #2 and 3 come to market).
3. Bubble-sitters.
4. Those aged 26-35 (well, those that still have jobs) who were shut out of housing due to the high prices of the last 5-10 years.
5. Seniors in high school. Some of these kids will eventually go to college, knock someone up and need a place to live in 5-15 years.

Anyone know of good reliable sources to find the number of these buyers ?

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=analyst]The phrase “shadow inventory” came into existence to describe quantities of properties which were expected to appear as listings for sale, but, for some reason, did not.

In that context, there is no difference between any of the following:
1. REO not listed for sale
2. NOT, sale postponed, no short sale in progress
3. NOD, NOT not issued, no short sale in progress
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress
[/quote]

Inventory numbers by themselves are meaningless. One needs to also consider the demand side.

For example, if the inventory is 10,000 homes and 15,000 sell in a year that is one thing. If 500 sell in a year it’s a completely different story.

So, in that spirit we should start tracking shadow demand. These would be those who will buy in the future but are not current buyers in the market. Current (real buyers) are known from the sales numbers. Shadow buyers would include the following:

1. Those making offers but not getting the house due to competition.
2. Those trolling around realty web sites, saving up down payments for a purchase 12-18 months from now. (these buyers will be ready to purchase about the time those properties in shadow category #2 and 3 come to market).
3. Bubble-sitters.
4. Those aged 26-35 (well, those that still have jobs) who were shut out of housing due to the high prices of the last 5-10 years.
5. Seniors in high school. Some of these kids will eventually go to college, knock someone up and need a place to live in 5-15 years.

Anyone know of good reliable sources to find the number of these buyers ?

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=analyst]The phrase “shadow inventory” came into existence to describe quantities of properties which were expected to appear as listings for sale, but, for some reason, did not.

In that context, there is no difference between any of the following:
1. REO not listed for sale
2. NOT, sale postponed, no short sale in progress
3. NOD, NOT not issued, no short sale in progress
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress
[/quote]

Inventory numbers by themselves are meaningless. One needs to also consider the demand side.

For example, if the inventory is 10,000 homes and 15,000 sell in a year that is one thing. If 500 sell in a year it’s a completely different story.

So, in that spirit we should start tracking shadow demand. These would be those who will buy in the future but are not current buyers in the market. Current (real buyers) are known from the sales numbers. Shadow buyers would include the following:

1. Those making offers but not getting the house due to competition.
2. Those trolling around realty web sites, saving up down payments for a purchase 12-18 months from now. (these buyers will be ready to purchase about the time those properties in shadow category #2 and 3 come to market).
3. Bubble-sitters.
4. Those aged 26-35 (well, those that still have jobs) who were shut out of housing due to the high prices of the last 5-10 years.
5. Seniors in high school. Some of these kids will eventually go to college, knock someone up and need a place to live in 5-15 years.

Anyone know of good reliable sources to find the number of these buyers ?

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=analyst]The phrase “shadow inventory” came into existence to describe quantities of properties which were expected to appear as listings for sale, but, for some reason, did not.

In that context, there is no difference between any of the following:
1. REO not listed for sale
2. NOT, sale postponed, no short sale in progress
3. NOD, NOT not issued, no short sale in progress
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress
[/quote]

Inventory numbers by themselves are meaningless. One needs to also consider the demand side.

For example, if the inventory is 10,000 homes and 15,000 sell in a year that is one thing. If 500 sell in a year it’s a completely different story.

So, in that spirit we should start tracking shadow demand. These would be those who will buy in the future but are not current buyers in the market. Current (real buyers) are known from the sales numbers. Shadow buyers would include the following:

1. Those making offers but not getting the house due to competition.
2. Those trolling around realty web sites, saving up down payments for a purchase 12-18 months from now. (these buyers will be ready to purchase about the time those properties in shadow category #2 and 3 come to market).
3. Bubble-sitters.
4. Those aged 26-35 (well, those that still have jobs) who were shut out of housing due to the high prices of the last 5-10 years.
5. Seniors in high school. Some of these kids will eventually go to college, knock someone up and need a place to live in 5-15 years.

Anyone know of good reliable sources to find the number of these buyers ?

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=analyst]The phrase “shadow inventory” came into existence to describe quantities of properties which were expected to appear as listings for sale, but, for some reason, did not.

In that context, there is no difference between any of the following:
1. REO not listed for sale
2. NOT, sale postponed, no short sale in progress
3. NOD, NOT not issued, no short sale in progress
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress
[/quote]

Inventory numbers by themselves are meaningless. One needs to also consider the demand side.

For example, if the inventory is 10,000 homes and 15,000 sell in a year that is one thing. If 500 sell in a year it’s a completely different story.

So, in that spirit we should start tracking shadow demand. These would be those who will buy in the future but are not current buyers in the market. Current (real buyers) are known from the sales numbers. Shadow buyers would include the following:

1. Those making offers but not getting the house due to competition.
2. Those trolling around realty web sites, saving up down payments for a purchase 12-18 months from now. (these buyers will be ready to purchase about the time those properties in shadow category #2 and 3 come to market).
3. Bubble-sitters.
4. Those aged 26-35 (well, those that still have jobs) who were shut out of housing due to the high prices of the last 5-10 years.
5. Seniors in high school. Some of these kids will eventually go to college, knock someone up and need a place to live in 5-15 years.

Anyone know of good reliable sources to find the number of these buyers ?

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.

Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]

Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.

Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.

[/quote]

I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.

I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.

For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .

These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).

These might be impossible to measure.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.

Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]

Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.

Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.

[/quote]

I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.

I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.

For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .

These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).

These might be impossible to measure.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.

Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]

Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.

Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.

[/quote]

I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.

I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.

For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .

These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).

These might be impossible to measure.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.

Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]

Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.

Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.

[/quote]

I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.

I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.

For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .

These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).

These might be impossible to measure.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=DWCAP][quote=FormerSanDiegan]Some people will die next year and their heirs will sell their property. Those should be counted in shadow inventory as well.

Also, some people will move away, retire to the mountains or other scenarios. The future inventory from these sources should be investigated as well.[/quote]

Why? That is normal inventory flux. There will always be people dying and people moving.

Shadow inventory refers to the ABNORMAL current situation where property ‘owners’ are not fufilling their contractual obligations, and the banks are not acting upon it and taking the house to foreclosure and/or sale.

[/quote]

I apologize to those who took my suggestions literally. As tg suggests, there has been a gradual shift in the definition of shadow inventory. It was originally something that could be precisely measured. But once those numbers rolled out, we gradually expanded the definition to a point where we include items that are less easily measured.

I was simply taking this to its logical extreme to make a point.

For example, take analyst’s category #4
4. delinquent, NOD not issued, no short sale in progress .

These are a long way from being on the market. Maybe a couple years at the current pace. To understand the impact, you’d have to know what fraction of these on average would have come to market as organic sales over the next couple years due to the normal reasons (deaths, divorces, job changes, etc).

These might be impossible to measure.

[Arraya]

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

On the contrary. Not looking at trends and trajectories is foolish and one of severe denialism.

Trend 1: Pent up future inventory is building up. Easy to see with delinquency rates. Moving up quite fast. (Contributing factor unemployment, strategic walkers, some resets) Watch % upside down for future pent up inventory.

Trend 2: Unemployment is trending up (major contributing factor is credit contraction)

Trend 3: Credit is contracting and will do so for the foreseeable future (Major contributing factor defaults) According to Meredith Whitney only half way through.

Trend 4: Wages trending down making the mean a moving target in the future to the down side. This is quantifiable.

Trend 5: No new industry for job growth

Should we not look at these trends and extrapolate out? That is the wise thing to do?

They only thing keeping the whole shebang from not blowing up is accounting rules that allow banks to not count losses, which allows them to build up inventory.

The majority of the pain came in 2009, those losses have not be realized by the market yet. The record foreclosures just reported for Q3 are probably from late 2008. If you want to see what 2009 losses do to the market you wait until between Q4 2010 to Q2 of 2011.

[Arraya]

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

On the contrary. Not looking at trends and trajectories is foolish and one of severe denialism.

Trend 1: Pent up future inventory is building up. Easy to see with delinquency rates. Moving up quite fast. (Contributing factor unemployment, strategic walkers, some resets) Watch % upside down for future pent up inventory.

Trend 2: Unemployment is trending up (major contributing factor is credit contraction)

Trend 3: Credit is contracting and will do so for the foreseeable future (Major contributing factor defaults) According to Meredith Whitney only half way through.

Trend 4: Wages trending down making the mean a moving target in the future to the down side. This is quantifiable.

Trend 5: No new industry for job growth

Should we not look at these trends and extrapolate out? That is the wise thing to do?

They only thing keeping the whole shebang from not blowing up is accounting rules that allow banks to not count losses, which allows them to build up inventory.

The majority of the pain came in 2009, those losses have not be realized by the market yet. The record foreclosures just reported for Q3 are probably from late 2008. If you want to see what 2009 losses do to the market you wait until between Q4 2010 to Q2 of 2011.

[Arraya]

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

On the contrary. Not looking at trends and trajectories is foolish and one of severe denialism.

Trend 1: Pent up future inventory is building up. Easy to see with delinquency rates. Moving up quite fast. (Contributing factor unemployment, strategic walkers, some resets) Watch % upside down for future pent up inventory.

Trend 2: Unemployment is trending up (major contributing factor is credit contraction)

Trend 3: Credit is contracting and will do so for the foreseeable future (Major contributing factor defaults) According to Meredith Whitney only half way through.

Trend 4: Wages trending down making the mean a moving target in the future to the down side. This is quantifiable.

Trend 5: No new industry for job growth

Should we not look at these trends and extrapolate out? That is the wise thing to do?

They only thing keeping the whole shebang from not blowing up is accounting rules that allow banks to not count losses, which allows them to build up inventory.

The majority of the pain came in 2009, those losses have not be realized by the market yet. The record foreclosures just reported for Q3 are probably from late 2008. If you want to see what 2009 losses do to the market you wait until between Q4 2010 to Q2 of 2011.

[Arraya]

Measuring future inventory without considering future demand is a fool’s game. Neither is predictable.

On the contrary. Not looking at trends and trajectories is foolish and one of severe denialism.

Trend 1: Pent up future inventory is building up. Easy to see with delinquency rates. Moving up quite fast. (Contributing factor unemployment, strategic walkers, some resets) Watch % upside down for future pent up inventory.

Trend 2: Unemployment is trending up (major contributing factor is credit contraction)

Trend 3: Credit is contracting and will do so for the foreseeable future (Major contributing factor defaults) According to Meredith Whitney only half way through.

Trend 4: Wages trending down making the mean a moving target in the future to the down side. This is quantifiable.

Trend 5: No new industry for job growth

Should we not look at these trends and extrapolate out? That is the wise thing to do?

They only thing keeping the whole shebang from not blowing up is accounting rules that allow banks to not count losses, which allows them to build up inventory.

The majority of the pain came in 2009, those losses have not be realized by the market yet. The record foreclosures just reported for Q3 are probably from late 2008. If you want to see what 2009 losses do to the market you wait until between Q4 2010 to Q2 of 2011.

[Author]

Posts