Broadcom potential Purchase of Qualcomm

[Myriad]

Don’t know, maybe we’ll see some grand strategy from Trump. Can’t imagine any company that wants to do business with the US government would buy from ZTE.
At this point, if you’re a public or private company with any critical infrastructure, should be wary of Chinese content or equipment. Australia, UK, and Canada are looking much more deeply into Hwawei now.
Defense has been looking at this for a while at the box level, but more recently they are getting serious at board level components and chips.

[spdrun]

Considering the US three letter agencies’ penchant for spying and meddling in the world, shouldn’t you also be wary of US products?

[FlyerInHi]

Then what happens to free trade and selling to one another what we are good at making?

Interestingly, government procurement at all levels in US is not very open. The EU is negotiating that in a trade deal. I would like to see US cops driving European cars. Our water districts and airports could be privatized and run by European companies.

[Myriad]

[quote=spdrun]Considering the US three letter agencies’ penchant for spying and meddling in the world, shouldn’t you also be wary of US products?[/quote]

I’m not worried about the US government turning off electricity or water, unless we’re in a civil war. China and Russia on the other hand…

[spdrun]

I’d be worried if I were outside the US, though. The US is one of the largest military aggressors worldwide, and ability to turn the lights off makes an invasion much easier.

I’d certainly be worried if I were from a Latin American or Caribbean country.

[The-Shoveler]

” I would like to see US cops driving European cars.”

Sure just as soon as I see German cops driving Fords.

” Our water districts and airports could be privatized and run by European companies.”

Please no.

[spdrun]

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]I’d be worried if I were outside the US, though. The US is one of the largest military aggressors worldwide, and ability to turn the lights off makes an invasion much easier.

I’d certainly be worried if I were from a Latin American or Caribbean country.[/quote]

Given our history of overthrowing governments, most countries are wary of the USA and they see China are more benign. Plus China gives help without attaching political and economic conditions.

China is doing amazing infrastructure. Like the US military, Chinese contractors are very efficient. They spring into action, fly in thousands of workers, set up camp with their own Chinese chef, and get the work done in no time. The difference is that they are building instead of destroying.

My friend from Panama said that people over there appreciate the Chinese business approach. I don’t think they mind using Huawei or ZTE in their telecom networks.

[Myriad]

That’s not entirely accurate. They are loading up B&R countries with huge debt. When the US did it with the Marshall plan, it was a grant.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-of-africa-finds-itself-in-chinas-debt-1532549741

The Chinese can get it done quickly, because they ignore all local opposition. When they do run into opposition, then they have no experience dealing with it.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-global-building-spree-runs-into-trouble-in-pakistan-1532280460

I agree that US policy has been poor, especially with overthrowing governments. China seems to be doing what the British Empire did in teh 17-19th centuries. I think both policies are doomed to failure. Hopefully the US will re-think how it runs foreign policy now that there is real peer competition.

At least now, the US is getting more serious about responding. Investment along with the military realignment of Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/u-s-led-infrastructure-fund-to-counter-china-in-indo-pacific

[FlyerInHi]

Myriad, my dad used to build infrastructure around the world. He’s done barrages, cement factories, etc…

We had our chances when the world needed infrastructure but we didn’t step up. We let the military industrial complex take over. We should have sent the corps of engineers instead of the GIs around the world.

The proof is in the pudding. China is building infrastructure for the world and the West is not.

Don’t buy too much into biased reporting. Debt is not bad as long as the countries can service the debt. Take the port in Sri Lanka being taken over by China… Much to do about nothing.

China converted the debt to equity.. They are running the port which still services the Sri Lankan economy. They will get their money back over a long time. There was no big currency crisis of the likes that our big banks, IMF and World Bank put developing countries into in decades past. In the mean time, commerce will increase, the economy will grow, and the people will enjoy consumer goods (albeit perhaps “cheap” Chinese junk) they heretofore had no access to.

Plus China can build a lot cheaper than the West. They can deploy thousand of skilled workers in remote areas to get things done fast. American workers are not relocating to Africa unless they get expat packages, moving expenses, and high salaries. So maybe a US led coalition can build 1 project for each 10 Chinese projects.

I will gladly ride the HSR in Thailand when China completes it. I will be happy to ride any HSR anywhere, no matter who builds it. We will see who builds more.

BTW, I’m pro-American but I’m objective and take an economic view not a “patriotic” view. A good whether built by USA or China is objectively the same. What’s important is that the good is of use to people and improves lives.

I think the Chinese are genius with infrastructure. They are using their money to pay Chinese companies to build, gain experience, improve technology and move up the value chain. They enhance goodwill and commerce for China. A lot cheaper than sending the military.

Another thing, Chinese immigrants/expats are moving around the world and opening small shops and businesses that sell Chinese good… Another great thing for trade.

[Myriad]

Definitely agree the Chinese infrastructure model is better than what the US has been doing. The US built a psuedo empire with the military security assistance and access to US markets. China is now doing it with infrastructure and debt – akin to the British Empire
I somewhat disagree about the debt. Yes, the Chinese can build faster using their own labor but at the expense that the benefit doesn’t go to workers in those countries. Also, we don’t know how much corruption and kickbacks there are as well as funds going to offshore tax havens vs how much actually goes to the country. It’s a problem for western development too, but inherently, the Chinese are more opaque and there’s definitely more corruption – just hard to quantify.
Also, the infrastructure is very expensive relative to the GDP of those countries and will not be economically sustainable – essentially, the Chinese will economically own those countries and have strong political influence.

The issue I have is that, at the moment, China’s expansion is benign (except for the South China Sea). However, as with any expanding empire that feels relatively increasing strength, they will eventually challenge the US geo-politically. The question is when this happens, will China block other countries’s access (economic, trade, etc) to South and East Asia. It’s not entirely unfeasible that at some point in the future, China has military ports in Africa, Sri Lanka, South East Asia, etc), and they can economically strangle Japan for whatever reason or force Taiwan to accept unification (and the US would have little ability to block this at the detriment to US global influence.)
At the same time, I feel like China is making similar mistakes to the Europeans for empire expansion in the 19th century. There will be a backlash by the larger population that doesn’t feel (or perceived) like they are getting economic benefits or resent Chinese control.

The US has made lots of mistakes in the post WW-II era, but has not generally pursued such a policy (there are exceptions like Iran, NK). The best situation we can hope is that the US learns the good aspects of Chinese geopolitics (economic, non-intervention), and the Chinese learn the good parts of the US (anti-corruption, sustainable development).
Otherwise, we are headed for another 50+ year cold war.

[FlyerInHi]

Yes, Myriad. All good points.

China has already gotten Korea and Vietnam closer its sphere of influence. Taiwan belongs to China. It’s too late for an independent Taiwan. Here we made a mistake again. We thought that Taiwan and China would eventually reunify under an eventual return of the nationalists or perhaps a Yeltsin type figure in China.

And Japan owes an apology to China for WWII. Japan has never shown contrition like Germany, mainly because it was rich and had the USA on its side. China will find a way to give Japan a dose of humility. I don’t think war, but a vassal type relationship like we treat Mexico. I think Japan made mistakes by putting all its eggs in the US basket. South Korea has show more political savvy. And there is historic rivalry between Korea and Japan which is to China’s advantage. Japan will be isolated as the other Asian nations rise.

Yes, China will definitely challenge us. It’s up to us to rise to the occasion and make friends. But that’s not the problem of poor countries that need economic development and infrastructure. It’s up to us to give them a better deal than China (other than words of caution). I don’t see how the US will bring them aiports, roads, trains, telecom cheaper than China unless we increase foreign aid and grants. Very unlikely with our politics.

[Myriad]

That’s why Vietnam and India are moving to improve relations with the US. South Korean policy will be split as long as NK is separate and US forces are still in SK. I don’t believe the current negotiation will result in NK removing all nukes and leading to a re-unification.
The US Taiwan policy has always been ambiguous – I think the thinking always has been status quo and defer the problem until later.
Yes, the Japanese never really apologized to Asia for WWII – not sure what you mean about Germany and US since the US had the Marshall plan and defended W Germany and W. Berlin. We still have many military forces and facilities in Germany today. Hard to imagine any way Japan would have in the past and will align with China – there’s too much historical animosity between the cultures for now. If anything, Japan knows its future is tied to the US and will align even more to the US position – it gives them better options as a counterbalance to China.

What’s unknown is how demographics will play into the geo-politics. Japan is the worst in this area, China has a huge problem in 20 years, the US looks the best of the 3. Geo-politically though, the world looks headed to more conflict between larger powers then less – but the past few decades have been relatively the most peaceful in human history.

Thanks for an interesting, non-politicized, reasoned discussion, BTW

[The-Shoveler]

I think you guys dismiss Japan too readily,

They are still the worlds third largest economy, and have been innovators for a very long time.

Robots and AI will be far more important than cheap labor over the next 100 years.

For that matter the USA too.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I think you guys dismiss Japan too readily,

They are still the worlds third largest economy, and have been innovators for a very long time.

Robots and AI will be far more important than cheap labor over the next 100 years.

For that matter the USA too.[/quote]

With automation a lot of people will be out of jobs. We will need universal basic income which very unlikely in capitalist USA. So the less skilled and asset poor are screwed.
China will build housing and give for free to workers. State employees already got free condos.

Japan should welcome immigrants and become multicultural or it’s screwed. China is racing to become rich before it gets old. They are investing all over the world. Their aim to vertically provide everything to developing countries, from cheap consumer goods to airports and telecom networks.

Economist map of demographics.

Africa will become the eldorado of opportunity. The Chinese know it and are already there. China is using economics that provide future income and we’re using the military that only costs more and more money. We need to change if we are to compete.

[Author]

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