BofA Reductions

[briansd1]

[quote=Arraya]

The have not pledged 24 trillion dollars to this fiasco because they think it would be a minor dip in prices and quickly cleaned up. Or because of political pressure. The are fearful of the whole western world’s banking system collapsing.[/quote]

I agree with you as to the reasons for the bailouts.

You say our system is unsustainable and irresponsible. But what is the alternative to propping up our system to keep economic activity going?

I think the alternative is to change priorities and consume only what we need and find happiness not in consumption but leisure and free time. But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

Oh, the following weekend, on my free time, I want to go out and buy the new iPhone that’s coming out. 😉

[Arraya]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply

Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]

Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?

.[/quote]

All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default

This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default

If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad

Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.

So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.

[Arraya]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply

Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]

Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?

.[/quote]

All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default

This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default

If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad

Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.

So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.

[Arraya]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply

Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]

Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?

.[/quote]

All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default

This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default

If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad

Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.

So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.

[Arraya]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply

Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]

Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?

.[/quote]

All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default

This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default

If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad

Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.

So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.

[Arraya]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Arraya]So you are saying if we released 40,000 homes to the SD market it would be cleared up in a few months with just a little dip. Now I have not followed local RE numbers in about 2 years, but I seem to remember that being a little more that a few months supply

Coupled with an anemic job market I think you may be down playing the severity of the correction.[/quote]

Arraya, are you SURE there are 40,000 properties in SD County where a NOS has been filed and a sale on the courthouse steps is imminent?

.[/quote]

All data is wrong. This is from TRW. It has to do with >60 day lates. As of March nationally we have 14% and SD has 9.85% of mortgage holders delinquent. Some will get short saled and some will get mod’ed(possibly – we’ve only had like a 4% mod success rate thus far). Generally, when somebody goes > 60 days late they have about a 95% chance of default

This is not counting less than <60 day lates that also have a probability of default

If you don't like these numbers, cut them in half, it's still bad

Aside from the massive inventory bottleneck, which is unrecognized downward pressure, we have the fact that there is virtually no private mortgage market that is not backed by the gov.

So really, there is no market to analyze per se. All speculation on what would happen if one or more unprecedented interventions was not in place, is just that speculation. What we know is there would be dramatically less money available and dramatically more inventory. At this point you can just throw historical averages in the trash because the don't mean a thing.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1]

But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

[/quote]

Surfers

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1]

But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

[/quote]

Surfers

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1]

But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

[/quote]

Surfers

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1]

But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

[/quote]

Surfers

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=briansd1]

But who will be satisfied with free time but no money?

[/quote]

Surfers

[scaredyclassic]

surfers and philosophers?

[scaredyclassic]

surfers and philosophers?

[scaredyclassic]

surfers and philosophers?

[scaredyclassic]

surfers and philosophers?

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