Biggest Housing Drop on Record

[Mark Holmes]

Yep, here we go, we have a long bumpy road ahead of us:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20061213-1141-bn13housing.html

And this on top of that LA Times Article about there being 20% Option ARMs 2005 – 2006.

2009 should be a great time to buy; if I still have a job. Kind of scary.

[Bugs]

Again, the median is a clumsy and inaccurate way to quantify the amount of increase or decrease. By using it these reporters are actually going to exacerbate the panic, which probably will lead to the overreaction the RE types so rightly fear.

I think what this big percentage of change is indicative of is the reduction of new homes being sold and the belated reporting of the trend that has been well underway county wide since the beginning of the year. The change itself isn’t accurate, except to the extent that it nudges the median closer to what has been happening all along.

[Steve Beebo]

Even though the market is soft or very soft in most areas, the median resale prices are only off 5% to 6% from the record highs last year. We’ve got a long way to drop to hit some of your predictions of 30-50% declines. Could it be that my prediction from last spring or summer that median prices would drop no more than 10-15% by the time the market bottoms out come true? You know, the prediction that I was battered, bruised, and abused for?

Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty of more bad news ahead for the market in San Diego. I did an appraisal in San Elijo Hills today and it is kind of shocking how much some homes have dropped in value. There are some houses that sold in 2004 for $850,000 that are only worth $700,000 or $725,000 now. So there are going to be lots of foreclosures in the next couple of years. There is one foreclosure on the market there, where the original purchase included a 100% loan, and the lender is going to lose $200,000+. The one good thing happening in San Elijo Hills is that the builders are really slowing down their production due to a lack of sales, instead of flooding the homes with excess inventory.

[North County Jim]

There is one foreclosure on the market there, where the original purchase included a 100% loan, and the lender is going to lose $200,000+.

Beebo,

Is that the one on Tara Way?

[an]

Beebo, seems like we can be right. You predicted 10-15% while others are predicting 30-50% decline on the actual house since most on the board not median price doesn’t mean much. In one post, you proved that everybody can be right :-). 850k drop to 700k is 17% drop from 2004. Who knows how high it would be if it was sold in 2005.

[Steve Beebo]

Jim –

Yes, I was referring to the house at 1721 Tara Way – have you seen the inside of this one?

For other peoples’ info, this house was purchased new 7-05 for $861,000, with 100% combined financing. It was originally listed for sale by the lender 2.5 months ago for $770,000, reduced now to $696,000. So the lender is going to lose a minimum of $200,000. I would think it would sell for close to the current list price based on other very recent sales in the area, but there are no takers yet.

[farbet]

The house is hemmed in.The people in the back look down on you. Each side is surrounded by neighbors with huge barking pit bulls. Would you buy here.??

[farbet]

The house is hemmed in.The people in the back look down on you. Each side is surrounded by neighbors with huge barking pit bulls. Would you buy here.??
The Mello roos and HOA is a mini Mtge(5000).Good old Mello Roos.It always come back to bite you!!.
If I were a buyer I would stay away from San Eligio Hills until they do something about the high taxes. This is my humble opinion folks

[North County Jim]

Steve,

We haven’t seen the inside. How bad is it?

BTW, this is the second listing on this place as an REO. It was discussed here back in May.

[farbet]

The inside is good. Ants crawling all over the place. I saw it 2 weeks ago.

[CardiffBaseball]

I might not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but 696,000 is surely going to mess with comps in SEH. Regardless of condition.

[Anonymous]

6 more bank owned properties in them thar Hills of San Elijo:

805 Hollowbrook
646 Edgewater
1428 Schoolhouse
1682 Archer
1626 Avery
1754 Kenwood

and 7 active short sales…

[North County Jim]

646 Edgewater is in Silver Crest.

1516 Clifftop should be added to the REO list very soon.

[farbet]

Have you noticed they are mostly in San MArcos -San Elijio Hills.
Whas going on ?? My MY MY

[Author]

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