Bay Park Future?

[4plexowner]

here’s the math

peak in 2006/7

typical time from peak to trough in SoCal is 6 or 7 years

2006/7 plus 6 or 7 takes us to 2012 to 2014 for the next trough

then we scrape along the bottom for 2 or 3 years so we are looking at 2014 to 2017 when the next appreciation cycle starts (not peaks)

~

it isn’t relevant to this thread but I don’t understand how people can think we have reached a bottom in 2009 only 2 or 3 years after the peak

and that’s without going into the magnitude of the cycle that peaked in 2006/7 – it might be reasonable to expect a larger (longer?) than normal down cycle after the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the planet has ever seen

[UCGal]

Bay Park is an interesting community to me. The concerns about schools are legit – but the central location and potential views make it an awesome location.

When we were looking, before the opportunity to buy the house I grew up in, from my dad, came up, we looked hard at Bay Park and Bay Ho. Bay Ho was a bit cheaper, so we looked harder at that area. Unfortunately, this was 2002 and the bubble froth was starting… so we couldn’t justify pulling the trigger on anything we saw.

But I’m NOT a cookie cutter house, HOA, new construction type of person. I live in University City and it’s too “tract home” for me, despite all the customizations people have done on their homes in the past 45 years. So if you want the new construction type home my opinion is the opposite of what you want to do.

[UCGal]

Bay Park is an interesting community to me. The concerns about schools are legit – but the central location and potential views make it an awesome location.

When we were looking, before the opportunity to buy the house I grew up in, from my dad, came up, we looked hard at Bay Park and Bay Ho. Bay Ho was a bit cheaper, so we looked harder at that area. Unfortunately, this was 2002 and the bubble froth was starting… so we couldn’t justify pulling the trigger on anything we saw.

But I’m NOT a cookie cutter house, HOA, new construction type of person. I live in University City and it’s too “tract home” for me, despite all the customizations people have done on their homes in the past 45 years. So if you want the new construction type home my opinion is the opposite of what you want to do.

[UCGal]

Bay Park is an interesting community to me. The concerns about schools are legit – but the central location and potential views make it an awesome location.

When we were looking, before the opportunity to buy the house I grew up in, from my dad, came up, we looked hard at Bay Park and Bay Ho. Bay Ho was a bit cheaper, so we looked harder at that area. Unfortunately, this was 2002 and the bubble froth was starting… so we couldn’t justify pulling the trigger on anything we saw.

But I’m NOT a cookie cutter house, HOA, new construction type of person. I live in University City and it’s too “tract home” for me, despite all the customizations people have done on their homes in the past 45 years. So if you want the new construction type home my opinion is the opposite of what you want to do.

[UCGal]

Bay Park is an interesting community to me. The concerns about schools are legit – but the central location and potential views make it an awesome location.

When we were looking, before the opportunity to buy the house I grew up in, from my dad, came up, we looked hard at Bay Park and Bay Ho. Bay Ho was a bit cheaper, so we looked harder at that area. Unfortunately, this was 2002 and the bubble froth was starting… so we couldn’t justify pulling the trigger on anything we saw.

But I’m NOT a cookie cutter house, HOA, new construction type of person. I live in University City and it’s too “tract home” for me, despite all the customizations people have done on their homes in the past 45 years. So if you want the new construction type home my opinion is the opposite of what you want to do.

[UCGal]

Bay Park is an interesting community to me. The concerns about schools are legit – but the central location and potential views make it an awesome location.

When we were looking, before the opportunity to buy the house I grew up in, from my dad, came up, we looked hard at Bay Park and Bay Ho. Bay Ho was a bit cheaper, so we looked harder at that area. Unfortunately, this was 2002 and the bubble froth was starting… so we couldn’t justify pulling the trigger on anything we saw.

But I’m NOT a cookie cutter house, HOA, new construction type of person. I live in University City and it’s too “tract home” for me, despite all the customizations people have done on their homes in the past 45 years. So if you want the new construction type home my opinion is the opposite of what you want to do.

[Bob]

[quote=4plexowner]I believe Bay Ho, Bay Park and Clairemont will ‘pop’ in the next real estate cycle – we will see people scraping the 1950’s houses and building whatever is considered high-end housing at the time – this trend is especially likely for the view properties in Bay Park / Bay Ho and for the Clairemont houses along the canyon rims

that’s the good news – the bad news is that the next appreciation cycle won’t even start until 2017 or later depending on how numerous economic factors play out (bankruptcy of California and America, loss of reserve status for US dollar, retirement of boomers, peak oil, etc)

~

I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law[/quote]

Bay Park has considerable room for price depreciation, as very little is moving priced over $500K, so if someone is serious about the area, I’d say make an offer considerably lower than the asking price.

As for the dirty bay water, it really is sad to see tourists with their children swimming in the bay not knowing that they are putting their health at risk.

[Bob]

[quote=4plexowner]I believe Bay Ho, Bay Park and Clairemont will ‘pop’ in the next real estate cycle – we will see people scraping the 1950’s houses and building whatever is considered high-end housing at the time – this trend is especially likely for the view properties in Bay Park / Bay Ho and for the Clairemont houses along the canyon rims

that’s the good news – the bad news is that the next appreciation cycle won’t even start until 2017 or later depending on how numerous economic factors play out (bankruptcy of California and America, loss of reserve status for US dollar, retirement of boomers, peak oil, etc)

~

I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law[/quote]

Bay Park has considerable room for price depreciation, as very little is moving priced over $500K, so if someone is serious about the area, I’d say make an offer considerably lower than the asking price.

As for the dirty bay water, it really is sad to see tourists with their children swimming in the bay not knowing that they are putting their health at risk.

[Bob]

[quote=4plexowner]I believe Bay Ho, Bay Park and Clairemont will ‘pop’ in the next real estate cycle – we will see people scraping the 1950’s houses and building whatever is considered high-end housing at the time – this trend is especially likely for the view properties in Bay Park / Bay Ho and for the Clairemont houses along the canyon rims

that’s the good news – the bad news is that the next appreciation cycle won’t even start until 2017 or later depending on how numerous economic factors play out (bankruptcy of California and America, loss of reserve status for US dollar, retirement of boomers, peak oil, etc)

~

I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law[/quote]

Bay Park has considerable room for price depreciation, as very little is moving priced over $500K, so if someone is serious about the area, I’d say make an offer considerably lower than the asking price.

As for the dirty bay water, it really is sad to see tourists with their children swimming in the bay not knowing that they are putting their health at risk.

[Bob]

[quote=4plexowner]I believe Bay Ho, Bay Park and Clairemont will ‘pop’ in the next real estate cycle – we will see people scraping the 1950’s houses and building whatever is considered high-end housing at the time – this trend is especially likely for the view properties in Bay Park / Bay Ho and for the Clairemont houses along the canyon rims

that’s the good news – the bad news is that the next appreciation cycle won’t even start until 2017 or later depending on how numerous economic factors play out (bankruptcy of California and America, loss of reserve status for US dollar, retirement of boomers, peak oil, etc)

~

I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law[/quote]

Bay Park has considerable room for price depreciation, as very little is moving priced over $500K, so if someone is serious about the area, I’d say make an offer considerably lower than the asking price.

As for the dirty bay water, it really is sad to see tourists with their children swimming in the bay not knowing that they are putting their health at risk.

[Bob]

[quote=4plexowner]I believe Bay Ho, Bay Park and Clairemont will ‘pop’ in the next real estate cycle – we will see people scraping the 1950’s houses and building whatever is considered high-end housing at the time – this trend is especially likely for the view properties in Bay Park / Bay Ho and for the Clairemont houses along the canyon rims

that’s the good news – the bad news is that the next appreciation cycle won’t even start until 2017 or later depending on how numerous economic factors play out (bankruptcy of California and America, loss of reserve status for US dollar, retirement of boomers, peak oil, etc)

~

I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law[/quote]

Bay Park has considerable room for price depreciation, as very little is moving priced over $500K, so if someone is serious about the area, I’d say make an offer considerably lower than the asking price.

As for the dirty bay water, it really is sad to see tourists with their children swimming in the bay not knowing that they are putting their health at risk.

[jonnycsd]

[quote=4plexowner]
I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law

anybody up for surfing this morning?

~

edit: another water quality issue is the sewage coming up from Tijuana – the beaches along Coronado are closed several (numerous?) times each year because of unhealthy conditions[/quote]

This post is so misinformed I’m not sure where to begin. 4plexowner, if, as you say, the bay has poor circulation of new ocean water then how the hell does the offshore discharge have any relevance? And how does water from Coronado Island, which is DOWNCURRENT on the other side of Point Loma even figure into the calculus (or lack thereof)?

The fact is that if has been two or three days since the last rain (aka, ALL SUMMER), Mission Bay provides some of the cleanest water for swimming in San Diego. The City’s $130MM storm water diversion system keeps surface runoff out of the bay and there is tremendous tidal flushing. The average depth of the bay is about 15 feet, and the tide moves up and down 3 to 6 feet meaning that about a third of the water is replaced in each tide cycle, or TWICE per day.

You can read about the academic study here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20041016-9999-2m16swim.html

And you can read the conclusions of the environmentalist group “Heal the Bay” here (the mission bay bit is about 2/3 of the way down):
http://sandiego.about.com/od/outdoorrecreatio1/a/beaches2004.htm

As far as I am concerned those two links provide MUCH more reliable information than the quoted post.

[jonnycsd]

[quote=4plexowner]
I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law

anybody up for surfing this morning?

~

edit: another water quality issue is the sewage coming up from Tijuana – the beaches along Coronado are closed several (numerous?) times each year because of unhealthy conditions[/quote]

This post is so misinformed I’m not sure where to begin. 4plexowner, if, as you say, the bay has poor circulation of new ocean water then how the hell does the offshore discharge have any relevance? And how does water from Coronado Island, which is DOWNCURRENT on the other side of Point Loma even figure into the calculus (or lack thereof)?

The fact is that if has been two or three days since the last rain (aka, ALL SUMMER), Mission Bay provides some of the cleanest water for swimming in San Diego. The City’s $130MM storm water diversion system keeps surface runoff out of the bay and there is tremendous tidal flushing. The average depth of the bay is about 15 feet, and the tide moves up and down 3 to 6 feet meaning that about a third of the water is replaced in each tide cycle, or TWICE per day.

You can read about the academic study here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20041016-9999-2m16swim.html

And you can read the conclusions of the environmentalist group “Heal the Bay” here (the mission bay bit is about 2/3 of the way down):
http://sandiego.about.com/od/outdoorrecreatio1/a/beaches2004.htm

As far as I am concerned those two links provide MUCH more reliable information than the quoted post.

[jonnycsd]

[quote=4plexowner]
I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law

anybody up for surfing this morning?

~

edit: another water quality issue is the sewage coming up from Tijuana – the beaches along Coronado are closed several (numerous?) times each year because of unhealthy conditions[/quote]

This post is so misinformed I’m not sure where to begin. 4plexowner, if, as you say, the bay has poor circulation of new ocean water then how the hell does the offshore discharge have any relevance? And how does water from Coronado Island, which is DOWNCURRENT on the other side of Point Loma even figure into the calculus (or lack thereof)?

The fact is that if has been two or three days since the last rain (aka, ALL SUMMER), Mission Bay provides some of the cleanest water for swimming in San Diego. The City’s $130MM storm water diversion system keeps surface runoff out of the bay and there is tremendous tidal flushing. The average depth of the bay is about 15 feet, and the tide moves up and down 3 to 6 feet meaning that about a third of the water is replaced in each tide cycle, or TWICE per day.

You can read about the academic study here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20041016-9999-2m16swim.html

And you can read the conclusions of the environmentalist group “Heal the Bay” here (the mission bay bit is about 2/3 of the way down):
http://sandiego.about.com/od/outdoorrecreatio1/a/beaches2004.htm

As far as I am concerned those two links provide MUCH more reliable information than the quoted post.

[jonnycsd]

[quote=4plexowner]
I hadn’t heard about increased health risks from living around the bay – I tell my kids and visitors to NEVER swim in Mission Bay – I have heard / read (?) that the water does not circulate well through the Bay so the water is relatively stagnant – combine a lack of circulation with the toxic remains of a landfill and you have the potential for a big, nasty, toxic body of water

when I first moved to San Diego 18 years ago I read a story in the Reader about unexplainable and incurable skin rashes and skin conditions that swimmers and surfers were developing – the article attributed the problem to our off-shore dumping of wastewater – made the point that every toilet in every hospital and medical facility in San Diego flushes into the ocean about 2 miles off-shore after the minimal amount of treatment required by law

anybody up for surfing this morning?

~

edit: another water quality issue is the sewage coming up from Tijuana – the beaches along Coronado are closed several (numerous?) times each year because of unhealthy conditions[/quote]

This post is so misinformed I’m not sure where to begin. 4plexowner, if, as you say, the bay has poor circulation of new ocean water then how the hell does the offshore discharge have any relevance? And how does water from Coronado Island, which is DOWNCURRENT on the other side of Point Loma even figure into the calculus (or lack thereof)?

The fact is that if has been two or three days since the last rain (aka, ALL SUMMER), Mission Bay provides some of the cleanest water for swimming in San Diego. The City’s $130MM storm water diversion system keeps surface runoff out of the bay and there is tremendous tidal flushing. The average depth of the bay is about 15 feet, and the tide moves up and down 3 to 6 feet meaning that about a third of the water is replaced in each tide cycle, or TWICE per day.

You can read about the academic study here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20041016-9999-2m16swim.html

And you can read the conclusions of the environmentalist group “Heal the Bay” here (the mission bay bit is about 2/3 of the way down):
http://sandiego.about.com/od/outdoorrecreatio1/a/beaches2004.htm

As far as I am concerned those two links provide MUCH more reliable information than the quoted post.

[Author]

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