Basic affordability metrics

[SD Realtor]

First off, sorry to deviate off the main topic of the thread which was questioning the valuations of rents being charged. SDE made the best post, it IS all about supply and demand. If there is demand for that 4k monthly rent, then the home will rent… it is all pretty simple.

As for the property sales… It is a tough call… Again, there can be no argument that valuations are out of whack… The premium for living in some of these more desireable parts of the county makes no fiscal sense to me but it a few of these homes are selling. I took a quick look at 92130 sales since 3/1/08. Here is the financing picture:

Sales price Date Financed
590 3/5 410
620 4/1 496
675 4/7 0
694 4/3 548
725 4/4 0
765 3/11 480
800 3/20 730
780 4/17 not recorded yet
784 3/17 417
795 4/11 532
863 3/19 567
868 3/25 350
870 4/10 290
870 3/17 550
885 4/11 775
903.5 4/4 403.5
950 3/18 712.5
950 4/3 780
987 3/13 575
1.09 3/18 475
1.125 4/4 843
1.17 4/18 not recorded
1.175 3/13 881
1.2 4/3 800
1.25 3/6 417
1.25 (lot not a home) 3/26 0
1.25 3/13 1M (actually 1,000,001) which is kind of peculiar….
1.41 4/8 1.1M
1.425 3/11 400
1.775 3/14 1.42M
1.85 4/3 1.1M
1.975 3/27 0
2.1 3/10 1M
2.275 3/20 0
3.225 4/15 not recorded yet.

So anyways, people can take this data anyway they want. Some of you may say, oh man… these guys are foreclosures waiting to happen. Personally I don’t think so.

Once more, this is not anything but data. My premise is that in communities like this, I really do throw out mean or median incomes and such. I am not saying Carmel Valley will not go down. I just think that sometimes there is a bit to much insight trying to be made on some of the statistics and that once more I detect a little of the “prices HAVE to go to such and such a level”… Maybe they will, maybe they won’t… I am always surprised at how much money there is out there.

[Fearful]

Thanks for the data.

I am struck by the lower LTVs on these sales. I wonder, is that characteristic of the high price point? Or is it the recent sales, with lenders reluctant to fund high LTVs now?

That confirms that, at least recently, 92130 valuations are supported by capital, as much as income.

An important question is whether that capital comes from prior house sales or otherwise.

I don’t think the recent sales are necessarily foreclosures waiting to happen, except to the extent that if house prices fall significantly from here, some of these buyers will go underwater and some of those will walk away on general principles.

[Fearful]

Thanks for the data.

I am struck by the lower LTVs on these sales. I wonder, is that characteristic of the high price point? Or is it the recent sales, with lenders reluctant to fund high LTVs now?

That confirms that, at least recently, 92130 valuations are supported by capital, as much as income.

An important question is whether that capital comes from prior house sales or otherwise.

I don’t think the recent sales are necessarily foreclosures waiting to happen, except to the extent that if house prices fall significantly from here, some of these buyers will go underwater and some of those will walk away on general principles.

[Fearful]

Thanks for the data.

I am struck by the lower LTVs on these sales. I wonder, is that characteristic of the high price point? Or is it the recent sales, with lenders reluctant to fund high LTVs now?

That confirms that, at least recently, 92130 valuations are supported by capital, as much as income.

An important question is whether that capital comes from prior house sales or otherwise.

I don’t think the recent sales are necessarily foreclosures waiting to happen, except to the extent that if house prices fall significantly from here, some of these buyers will go underwater and some of those will walk away on general principles.

[Fearful]

Thanks for the data.

I am struck by the lower LTVs on these sales. I wonder, is that characteristic of the high price point? Or is it the recent sales, with lenders reluctant to fund high LTVs now?

That confirms that, at least recently, 92130 valuations are supported by capital, as much as income.

An important question is whether that capital comes from prior house sales or otherwise.

I don’t think the recent sales are necessarily foreclosures waiting to happen, except to the extent that if house prices fall significantly from here, some of these buyers will go underwater and some of those will walk away on general principles.

[Fearful]

Thanks for the data.

I am struck by the lower LTVs on these sales. I wonder, is that characteristic of the high price point? Or is it the recent sales, with lenders reluctant to fund high LTVs now?

That confirms that, at least recently, 92130 valuations are supported by capital, as much as income.

An important question is whether that capital comes from prior house sales or otherwise.

I don’t think the recent sales are necessarily foreclosures waiting to happen, except to the extent that if house prices fall significantly from here, some of these buyers will go underwater and some of those will walk away on general principles.

[ibjames]

A teacher and a nurse making 240! WTF!

[ibjames]

A teacher and a nurse making 240! WTF!

[ibjames]

A teacher and a nurse making 240! WTF!

[ibjames]

A teacher and a nurse making 240! WTF!

[ibjames]

A teacher and a nurse making 240! WTF!

[sdrealtor]

He gets a military pension which is not uncommon around here.

[sdrealtor]

He gets a military pension which is not uncommon around here.

[sdrealtor]

He gets a military pension which is not uncommon around here.

[sdrealtor]

He gets a military pension which is not uncommon around here.

[Author]

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