This is my first post although I have been visiting Piggington for more than a year.
My wife and I have browsed at some houses in Azure in San Elijo Hills. These are ~4k sq/ft houses currently selling in the $200 sq/ft range. The lots vary in size from ~9k sf to ~15k sf.
Most of these houses were initially sold in 2004/2005 for at least 25% higher prices than Zillow now estimates, and almost all these homes have not turned over.
We were intrigued by the neighborhood, but, frankly, I think the current residents are competely hosed, and any 5 year interest only loans are about to start resetting and will continue down the streets for the next year or so. Most of these people paid ~$800 – $1.1mm and Zillow estimates most around $600-$700.
Recent sales are in the high $500k – mid $600k range, which I assume were not voluntary on behalf of the sellers. At the risk of stereotyping, the cars parked in the garages and on the streets don’t exactly look like they belong to the kinds of people who can afford the PITI on a $1mm house. Now, it could very well be that the payment differential by driving a Maxima or early 2000s Explorer instead of an Escalade or H2 allows them to afford the neighborhood, but I suspect otherwise. Frankly, I think they were overly optimistic buyers who got sucked in pretty much at the peak and are now in trouble for having over-reached now that the music has stopped.
We could afford to buy in there at current prices, but I am afraid that the neighborhood is about to become destabalized due to the big disconnect between asking prices from Ma and Pa Organic and what I assume are recent sale prices by the banks and the fact that the noose one way or another is going to tighten.
On the other side of the coin, given current rates, even using the much higher asking prices in the neighborhood, PITI plus mello roos would be within a couple hundred/month of what we pay to rent a 2300 s.f. condo in Solana Beach.
We have two small children who will be going to private school in Solana Beach, so the school district isn’t all that important to us–but having things like a yard or a pool is of growing importance and would probably improve our quality of life. I’m not wild about the commute to La Jolla, where I work, but we’ve also talked about Olivenhain which would be almost as far, and the pricing in that area is still much higher.
I would to solicit opinions about the subdivision, the builder/quality, the decline to date, forecasts about the future, and thoughts about what contributed to such forecast.
Also, would someone please offer some tips to help determine exactly how strapped the overall neighborhood is, or tracking defaults, unpaid property tax, and other signs of distress? I started doing some basic research on Zillow and that’s what started curling my toes, thinking that this area because of the declines and the pressure, is going to see further decimation.
We also drove by some houses at the top of Schoolhouse Way, and while those houses seem to have a lot more curb appeal, the lot sizes are less generous and the houses seem to have been built with lower quality. I would appreciate thoughts on this as well.
The commute from SEH to La Jolla is pretty bad … unless you somehow manage to avoid rush hour altogether by working flexible hours. (I timed the commute from UTC to SEH once leaving at 7 pm, it was around 30 min; leave any sooner than that, you’ll be stuck in traffic.) Doubly bad when it rains – it might top 1 hour one way. Somewhat better to Olivenhain, but I don’t see those houses crossing below $1 mil mark in the foreseeable future.
The commute from SEH to La Jolla is pretty bad … unless you somehow manage to avoid rush hour altogether by working flexible hours. (I timed the commute from UTC to SEH once leaving at 7 pm, it was around 30 min; leave any sooner than that, you’ll be stuck in traffic.) Doubly bad when it rains – it might top 1 hour one way. Somewhat better to Olivenhain, but I don’t see those houses crossing below $1 mil mark in the foreseeable future.
The commute from SEH to La Jolla is pretty bad … unless you somehow manage to avoid rush hour altogether by working flexible hours. (I timed the commute from UTC to SEH once leaving at 7 pm, it was around 30 min; leave any sooner than that, you’ll be stuck in traffic.) Doubly bad when it rains – it might top 1 hour one way. Somewhat better to Olivenhain, but I don’t see those houses crossing below $1 mil mark in the foreseeable future.
The commute from SEH to La Jolla is pretty bad … unless you somehow manage to avoid rush hour altogether by working flexible hours. (I timed the commute from UTC to SEH once leaving at 7 pm, it was around 30 min; leave any sooner than that, you’ll be stuck in traffic.) Doubly bad when it rains – it might top 1 hour one way. Somewhat better to Olivenhain, but I don’t see those houses crossing below $1 mil mark in the foreseeable future.
