Anyone change their opinion as to what and when the bottom wil be?

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[sdduuuude]

I was predicting a SFR median price reduction of %25 – %30 some time in late 2005. We are already past that, and I believe we are entering the “holy shit” phase where the nicer ‘hoods take a dive.(Certainly, the credit and stock markets just went through their “holy shit” phase.)

So I guess I have to change my prediction of where the bottom will be, though not when.

Still looking to late 2011 on timing.

What may happen now is the vanilla median stops dropping as those houses priced near the current median start to stabilize and the pain train cruises into the higher end.

Analytically speaking, when houses that are priced higher or lower than the median have their price lowered but houses priced near the median don’t change, the median actually doesn’t change. We saw the median hold steady as the bottom end fell out of the market, then we saw the median really drop when houses priced around the medan lose their value. Next, the median will again stabilize though the pain is far from over. It’s a characteristic of the median.

Median price per sq. ft and Case-Shiller, though, will show the pain to some extent.

I feel like Japan 15 years ago. We may hit bottom in 2011 but we may not leave the bottom until 2017.

[sdduuuude]

I was predicting a SFR median price reduction of %25 – %30 some time in late 2005. We are already past that, and I believe we are entering the “holy shit” phase where the nicer ‘hoods take a dive.(Certainly, the credit and stock markets just went through their “holy shit” phase.)

So I guess I have to change my prediction of where the bottom will be, though not when.

Still looking to late 2011 on timing.

What may happen now is the vanilla median stops dropping as those houses priced near the current median start to stabilize and the pain train cruises into the higher end.

Analytically speaking, when houses that are priced higher or lower than the median have their price lowered but houses priced near the median don’t change, the median actually doesn’t change. We saw the median hold steady as the bottom end fell out of the market, then we saw the median really drop when houses priced around the medan lose their value. Next, the median will again stabilize though the pain is far from over. It’s a characteristic of the median.

Median price per sq. ft and Case-Shiller, though, will show the pain to some extent.

I feel like Japan 15 years ago. We may hit bottom in 2011 but we may not leave the bottom until 2017.

[sdduuuude]

I was predicting a SFR median price reduction of %25 – %30 some time in late 2005. We are already past that, and I believe we are entering the “holy shit” phase where the nicer ‘hoods take a dive.(Certainly, the credit and stock markets just went through their “holy shit” phase.)

So I guess I have to change my prediction of where the bottom will be, though not when.

Still looking to late 2011 on timing.

What may happen now is the vanilla median stops dropping as those houses priced near the current median start to stabilize and the pain train cruises into the higher end.

Analytically speaking, when houses that are priced higher or lower than the median have their price lowered but houses priced near the median don’t change, the median actually doesn’t change. We saw the median hold steady as the bottom end fell out of the market, then we saw the median really drop when houses priced around the medan lose their value. Next, the median will again stabilize though the pain is far from over. It’s a characteristic of the median.

Median price per sq. ft and Case-Shiller, though, will show the pain to some extent.

I feel like Japan 15 years ago. We may hit bottom in 2011 but we may not leave the bottom until 2017.

[sdduuuude]

I was predicting a SFR median price reduction of %25 – %30 some time in late 2005. We are already past that, and I believe we are entering the “holy shit” phase where the nicer ‘hoods take a dive.(Certainly, the credit and stock markets just went through their “holy shit” phase.)

So I guess I have to change my prediction of where the bottom will be, though not when.

Still looking to late 2011 on timing.

What may happen now is the vanilla median stops dropping as those houses priced near the current median start to stabilize and the pain train cruises into the higher end.

Analytically speaking, when houses that are priced higher or lower than the median have their price lowered but houses priced near the median don’t change, the median actually doesn’t change. We saw the median hold steady as the bottom end fell out of the market, then we saw the median really drop when houses priced around the medan lose their value. Next, the median will again stabilize though the pain is far from over. It’s a characteristic of the median.

Median price per sq. ft and Case-Shiller, though, will show the pain to some extent.

I feel like Japan 15 years ago. We may hit bottom in 2011 but we may not leave the bottom until 2017.

[sdduuuude]

I was predicting a SFR median price reduction of %25 – %30 some time in late 2005. We are already past that, and I believe we are entering the “holy shit” phase where the nicer ‘hoods take a dive.(Certainly, the credit and stock markets just went through their “holy shit” phase.)

So I guess I have to change my prediction of where the bottom will be, though not when.

Still looking to late 2011 on timing.

What may happen now is the vanilla median stops dropping as those houses priced near the current median start to stabilize and the pain train cruises into the higher end.

Analytically speaking, when houses that are priced higher or lower than the median have their price lowered but houses priced near the median don’t change, the median actually doesn’t change. We saw the median hold steady as the bottom end fell out of the market, then we saw the median really drop when houses priced around the medan lose their value. Next, the median will again stabilize though the pain is far from over. It’s a characteristic of the median.

Median price per sq. ft and Case-Shiller, though, will show the pain to some extent.

I feel like Japan 15 years ago. We may hit bottom in 2011 but we may not leave the bottom until 2017.

[wannabe2077]

Stock market selling is from leveraged hedge funds.

It is a great thing to start dollar cost averaging into stocks – energy, precious metals, international wireless, some blue chip non-financials.

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/2008/10/fall-of-market.html

real estate in California is a different story

[wannabe2077]

Stock market selling is from leveraged hedge funds.

It is a great thing to start dollar cost averaging into stocks – energy, precious metals, international wireless, some blue chip non-financials.

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/2008/10/fall-of-market.html

real estate in California is a different story

[wannabe2077]

Stock market selling is from leveraged hedge funds.

It is a great thing to start dollar cost averaging into stocks – energy, precious metals, international wireless, some blue chip non-financials.

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/2008/10/fall-of-market.html

real estate in California is a different story

[wannabe2077]

Stock market selling is from leveraged hedge funds.

It is a great thing to start dollar cost averaging into stocks – energy, precious metals, international wireless, some blue chip non-financials.

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/2008/10/fall-of-market.html

real estate in California is a different story

[wannabe2077]

Stock market selling is from leveraged hedge funds.

It is a great thing to start dollar cost averaging into stocks – energy, precious metals, international wireless, some blue chip non-financials.

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/2008/10/fall-of-market.html

real estate in California is a different story

[kewp]

Some of the best investment advice I’ve ever gotten was to not bother with trying to time market bottoms. Wait until you see some sustained appreciation before you buy in.

It’s better to put your money is something that is generating a positive return vs. simply knife catching.

[kewp]

Some of the best investment advice I’ve ever gotten was to not bother with trying to time market bottoms. Wait until you see some sustained appreciation before you buy in.

It’s better to put your money is something that is generating a positive return vs. simply knife catching.

[kewp]

Some of the best investment advice I’ve ever gotten was to not bother with trying to time market bottoms. Wait until you see some sustained appreciation before you buy in.

It’s better to put your money is something that is generating a positive return vs. simply knife catching.

[kewp]

Some of the best investment advice I’ve ever gotten was to not bother with trying to time market bottoms. Wait until you see some sustained appreciation before you buy in.

It’s better to put your money is something that is generating a positive return vs. simply knife catching.

[Author]

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