Anyone change their opinion as to what and when the bottom wil be?

[sdrealtor]

I’m curious as to whether anyone has changed their opinions of where we will end up and when after all is said and done. While the speed and number of institutions that have failed all at once surprised me a little, it wasnt unexpected to me (I just thought it would take longer and be more spread out).

I still havent changed my belief as to where this will bottom and when in my market.

Anyone out there drastically alter their personal forecast? Is so, how much?

[stockstradr]

In the past three months I revised my previous S&P500 prediction which WAS “S&P500 will godown to about 1000”

But keep in mind I made that prediction over 12 months ago.

When the S&P500 went to 850 last week, I thought it wise to revise THAT prediction!

So my new prediction is

“Will go below 600 before end of 2009”

A guess:

Before the end of 2008, we get a nice rally takes us up to say 1100 on the S&P500. Then the country realizes we are going into a mild economic DEPRESSION (GDP falls by over 10%). Then stocks plumb new depths in 2009.

[stockstradr]

In the past three months I revised my previous S&P500 prediction which WAS “S&P500 will godown to about 1000”

But keep in mind I made that prediction over 12 months ago.

When the S&P500 went to 850 last week, I thought it wise to revise THAT prediction!

So my new prediction is

“Will go below 600 before end of 2009”

A guess:

Before the end of 2008, we get a nice rally takes us up to say 1100 on the S&P500. Then the country realizes we are going into a mild economic DEPRESSION (GDP falls by over 10%). Then stocks plumb new depths in 2009.

[stockstradr]

In the past three months I revised my previous S&P500 prediction which WAS “S&P500 will godown to about 1000”

But keep in mind I made that prediction over 12 months ago.

When the S&P500 went to 850 last week, I thought it wise to revise THAT prediction!

So my new prediction is

“Will go below 600 before end of 2009”

A guess:

Before the end of 2008, we get a nice rally takes us up to say 1100 on the S&P500. Then the country realizes we are going into a mild economic DEPRESSION (GDP falls by over 10%). Then stocks plumb new depths in 2009.

[stockstradr]

In the past three months I revised my previous S&P500 prediction which WAS “S&P500 will godown to about 1000”

But keep in mind I made that prediction over 12 months ago.

When the S&P500 went to 850 last week, I thought it wise to revise THAT prediction!

So my new prediction is

“Will go below 600 before end of 2009”

A guess:

Before the end of 2008, we get a nice rally takes us up to say 1100 on the S&P500. Then the country realizes we are going into a mild economic DEPRESSION (GDP falls by over 10%). Then stocks plumb new depths in 2009.

[stockstradr]

In the past three months I revised my previous S&P500 prediction which WAS “S&P500 will godown to about 1000”

But keep in mind I made that prediction over 12 months ago.

When the S&P500 went to 850 last week, I thought it wise to revise THAT prediction!

So my new prediction is

“Will go below 600 before end of 2009”

A guess:

Before the end of 2008, we get a nice rally takes us up to say 1100 on the S&P500. Then the country realizes we are going into a mild economic DEPRESSION (GDP falls by over 10%). Then stocks plumb new depths in 2009.

[Anonymous]

I original guess a couple of years back was that we would head back to 2001 pricing levels. I thought the bottom would be end of 2010. Obviously San Diego County has many different micro markets so you can’t say that everywhere in S.D. county is going back to XXXX pricing levels.

The govt is doing things that I don’t think anyone would have predicted. It is mind blowing.

I think the loan mods will have an impact on where the pricing levels end up. Are lenders going to just put off the inveitable(sp?) by doing temp. loan mods for 5 years or are they going to give borrowers crazy fixed rates(2-5%) and permanently forgive part of the loan(instead of making it a silent second)?

[Anonymous]

I original guess a couple of years back was that we would head back to 2001 pricing levels. I thought the bottom would be end of 2010. Obviously San Diego County has many different micro markets so you can’t say that everywhere in S.D. county is going back to XXXX pricing levels.

The govt is doing things that I don’t think anyone would have predicted. It is mind blowing.

I think the loan mods will have an impact on where the pricing levels end up. Are lenders going to just put off the inveitable(sp?) by doing temp. loan mods for 5 years or are they going to give borrowers crazy fixed rates(2-5%) and permanently forgive part of the loan(instead of making it a silent second)?

[Anonymous]

I original guess a couple of years back was that we would head back to 2001 pricing levels. I thought the bottom would be end of 2010. Obviously San Diego County has many different micro markets so you can’t say that everywhere in S.D. county is going back to XXXX pricing levels.

The govt is doing things that I don’t think anyone would have predicted. It is mind blowing.

I think the loan mods will have an impact on where the pricing levels end up. Are lenders going to just put off the inveitable(sp?) by doing temp. loan mods for 5 years or are they going to give borrowers crazy fixed rates(2-5%) and permanently forgive part of the loan(instead of making it a silent second)?

[Anonymous]

I original guess a couple of years back was that we would head back to 2001 pricing levels. I thought the bottom would be end of 2010. Obviously San Diego County has many different micro markets so you can’t say that everywhere in S.D. county is going back to XXXX pricing levels.

The govt is doing things that I don’t think anyone would have predicted. It is mind blowing.

I think the loan mods will have an impact on where the pricing levels end up. Are lenders going to just put off the inveitable(sp?) by doing temp. loan mods for 5 years or are they going to give borrowers crazy fixed rates(2-5%) and permanently forgive part of the loan(instead of making it a silent second)?

[Anonymous]

I original guess a couple of years back was that we would head back to 2001 pricing levels. I thought the bottom would be end of 2010. Obviously San Diego County has many different micro markets so you can’t say that everywhere in S.D. county is going back to XXXX pricing levels.

The govt is doing things that I don’t think anyone would have predicted. It is mind blowing.

I think the loan mods will have an impact on where the pricing levels end up. Are lenders going to just put off the inveitable(sp?) by doing temp. loan mods for 5 years or are they going to give borrowers crazy fixed rates(2-5%) and permanently forgive part of the loan(instead of making it a silent second)?

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

I’m sure many of us, myself included, have had to revise our predictions about how far down the housing market would go in San Diego. Two years ago, I would’ve said housing will drop 25% at most here, and probably only 10-15% at most in desirable neighborhoods. Needless to say that prediction was too optimistic for prices staying high. Ironically, at the time everyone I talked to, (except those on this board) thought I was a wacko with a tin hat.

At this point, how far down will housing go and for how long? I’m currently guessing 50-60% for most of San Diego and 35-45% for expensive coastal areas. Given the pace of declines I think we will hit 90% of our declines by end of 2009.

Just my guess though. I could easily be just as off this time as I was two years ago.

XBoxBoy

[Author]

Posts