Another potential fly in the bear ointment

[peterb]

Check your source for data accuracy. Those migration calculations are notoriously inaccurate. But that’s not nearly as important as employment.

But I want this rally to stick for a while! So I agree that things are looking up!!!!

[34f3f3f]

[quote=teatsonabull]Lastly, I submit that the increased fire danger in all of Southern California (which will likely leave no area unburned over the next 20 years) is a change (for the worse) in the “weather” that may keep people away.[/quote]

You probably would get used to the idea of raging fires all year round after a while, as people do earthquakes, but I agree, looking from the outside, it’s not the greatest incentive. But again there’s ‘nought as queer as folk’. The recent fire map which someone posted, showed Rancho Santa Fe as being particularly prone. Total madness IMHO.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=teatsonabull]Lastly, I submit that the increased fire danger in all of Southern California (which will likely leave no area unburned over the next 20 years) is a change (for the worse) in the “weather” that may keep people away.[/quote]

You probably would get used to the idea of raging fires all year round after a while, as people do earthquakes, but I agree, looking from the outside, it’s not the greatest incentive. But again there’s ‘nought as queer as folk’. The recent fire map which someone posted, showed Rancho Santa Fe as being particularly prone. Total madness IMHO.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=teatsonabull]Lastly, I submit that the increased fire danger in all of Southern California (which will likely leave no area unburned over the next 20 years) is a change (for the worse) in the “weather” that may keep people away.[/quote]

You probably would get used to the idea of raging fires all year round after a while, as people do earthquakes, but I agree, looking from the outside, it’s not the greatest incentive. But again there’s ‘nought as queer as folk’. The recent fire map which someone posted, showed Rancho Santa Fe as being particularly prone. Total madness IMHO.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=teatsonabull]Lastly, I submit that the increased fire danger in all of Southern California (which will likely leave no area unburned over the next 20 years) is a change (for the worse) in the “weather” that may keep people away.[/quote]

You probably would get used to the idea of raging fires all year round after a while, as people do earthquakes, but I agree, looking from the outside, it’s not the greatest incentive. But again there’s ‘nought as queer as folk’. The recent fire map which someone posted, showed Rancho Santa Fe as being particularly prone. Total madness IMHO.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=teatsonabull]Lastly, I submit that the increased fire danger in all of Southern California (which will likely leave no area unburned over the next 20 years) is a change (for the worse) in the “weather” that may keep people away.[/quote]

You probably would get used to the idea of raging fires all year round after a while, as people do earthquakes, but I agree, looking from the outside, it’s not the greatest incentive. But again there’s ‘nought as queer as folk’. The recent fire map which someone posted, showed Rancho Santa Fe as being particularly prone. Total madness IMHO.

[LA_Renter]

Here is a LA Times article making the opposite argument. This is the state of California and not S D specific.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-leaving-california18-2008dec18,0,5838.story

“For the fourth year in a row, more residents left the Golden State than moved here from other states, according to a report released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

The outflow — last seen during the economic and social struggles of the 1990s — started when it became too expensive for most people to buy homes in the state, and has kept going throughout the bust with the loss of so many jobs.

The trend underscores the state’s sour economy as layoffs continue, the fiscal strain on government grows and home values continue to decline.”

IMO California will always rebound. It is the poster child of boom bust cycles. I’m a little leary on the current turn around in SD though. People need jobs to move here and I don’t think we have seen the worst yet on that front, in fact I am certain of it.

[LA_Renter]

Here is a LA Times article making the opposite argument. This is the state of California and not S D specific.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-leaving-california18-2008dec18,0,5838.story

“For the fourth year in a row, more residents left the Golden State than moved here from other states, according to a report released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

The outflow — last seen during the economic and social struggles of the 1990s — started when it became too expensive for most people to buy homes in the state, and has kept going throughout the bust with the loss of so many jobs.

The trend underscores the state’s sour economy as layoffs continue, the fiscal strain on government grows and home values continue to decline.”

IMO California will always rebound. It is the poster child of boom bust cycles. I’m a little leary on the current turn around in SD though. People need jobs to move here and I don’t think we have seen the worst yet on that front, in fact I am certain of it.

[LA_Renter]

Here is a LA Times article making the opposite argument. This is the state of California and not S D specific.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-leaving-california18-2008dec18,0,5838.story

“For the fourth year in a row, more residents left the Golden State than moved here from other states, according to a report released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

The outflow — last seen during the economic and social struggles of the 1990s — started when it became too expensive for most people to buy homes in the state, and has kept going throughout the bust with the loss of so many jobs.

The trend underscores the state’s sour economy as layoffs continue, the fiscal strain on government grows and home values continue to decline.”

IMO California will always rebound. It is the poster child of boom bust cycles. I’m a little leary on the current turn around in SD though. People need jobs to move here and I don’t think we have seen the worst yet on that front, in fact I am certain of it.

[LA_Renter]

Here is a LA Times article making the opposite argument. This is the state of California and not S D specific.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-leaving-california18-2008dec18,0,5838.story

“For the fourth year in a row, more residents left the Golden State than moved here from other states, according to a report released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

The outflow — last seen during the economic and social struggles of the 1990s — started when it became too expensive for most people to buy homes in the state, and has kept going throughout the bust with the loss of so many jobs.

The trend underscores the state’s sour economy as layoffs continue, the fiscal strain on government grows and home values continue to decline.”

IMO California will always rebound. It is the poster child of boom bust cycles. I’m a little leary on the current turn around in SD though. People need jobs to move here and I don’t think we have seen the worst yet on that front, in fact I am certain of it.

[LA_Renter]

Here is a LA Times article making the opposite argument. This is the state of California and not S D specific.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-leaving-california18-2008dec18,0,5838.story

“For the fourth year in a row, more residents left the Golden State than moved here from other states, according to a report released Wednesday by the California Department of Finance.

The outflow — last seen during the economic and social struggles of the 1990s — started when it became too expensive for most people to buy homes in the state, and has kept going throughout the bust with the loss of so many jobs.

The trend underscores the state’s sour economy as layoffs continue, the fiscal strain on government grows and home values continue to decline.”

IMO California will always rebound. It is the poster child of boom bust cycles. I’m a little leary on the current turn around in SD though. People need jobs to move here and I don’t think we have seen the worst yet on that front, in fact I am certain of it.

[sdrealtor]

I didnt say traffic jams on the 8 and 10 but that the tide has turned. Had lunch with a college pal today who is fed up with the east coast. He’s an independent consultant and can live anywhere. Makes a couple hundred K a year. He’s got his place in escrow and will be bringing 500K to buy a new house here. Looking to spend 700 to 800K (i.e. only borrow 200 to 300K) out here which would put him under $2000/month totasl costs. Renting isnt in the equation for him as his sole reason to move here is lifestyle. I’ve got another friend getting working on the same and two more thinking about it now thats prices have fallen a couple hundred k for the homes they would want here. No traffic jam on the 8 or 10 but they cant be the only ones.

[sdrealtor]

I didnt say traffic jams on the 8 and 10 but that the tide has turned. Had lunch with a college pal today who is fed up with the east coast. He’s an independent consultant and can live anywhere. Makes a couple hundred K a year. He’s got his place in escrow and will be bringing 500K to buy a new house here. Looking to spend 700 to 800K (i.e. only borrow 200 to 300K) out here which would put him under $2000/month totasl costs. Renting isnt in the equation for him as his sole reason to move here is lifestyle. I’ve got another friend getting working on the same and two more thinking about it now thats prices have fallen a couple hundred k for the homes they would want here. No traffic jam on the 8 or 10 but they cant be the only ones.

[sdrealtor]

I didnt say traffic jams on the 8 and 10 but that the tide has turned. Had lunch with a college pal today who is fed up with the east coast. He’s an independent consultant and can live anywhere. Makes a couple hundred K a year. He’s got his place in escrow and will be bringing 500K to buy a new house here. Looking to spend 700 to 800K (i.e. only borrow 200 to 300K) out here which would put him under $2000/month totasl costs. Renting isnt in the equation for him as his sole reason to move here is lifestyle. I’ve got another friend getting working on the same and two more thinking about it now thats prices have fallen a couple hundred k for the homes they would want here. No traffic jam on the 8 or 10 but they cant be the only ones.

[sdrealtor]

I didnt say traffic jams on the 8 and 10 but that the tide has turned. Had lunch with a college pal today who is fed up with the east coast. He’s an independent consultant and can live anywhere. Makes a couple hundred K a year. He’s got his place in escrow and will be bringing 500K to buy a new house here. Looking to spend 700 to 800K (i.e. only borrow 200 to 300K) out here which would put him under $2000/month totasl costs. Renting isnt in the equation for him as his sole reason to move here is lifestyle. I’ve got another friend getting working on the same and two more thinking about it now thats prices have fallen a couple hundred k for the homes they would want here. No traffic jam on the 8 or 10 but they cant be the only ones.

[Author]

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